Does Paul Skenes have the NL Rookie of the Year award locked up? Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio have a shot

One of the awards that figures to be hotly contested in this final month is the National League Rookie of the Year. A few months ago, the chalk pick and overwhelming favorite was Paul Skenes of the Pirates . After all, Skenes burst onto the scene and started throwing like an ace in his second career start. He was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2023 and started the All-Star Game in 2024.

Jackson Merrill of the Padres is making this thing a race, though. Let's dig in.

Paul Skenes, Pirates

The 6-foot-6 right-hander is 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 142 strikeouts against 30 walks in 114 innings. The Pirates are 12-7 when he starts and 53-67 when he doesn't.

It's entirely possible the star factor could play in the minds of some voters and if that's the case, Skenes has made a much bigger impact there than anyone else. He was the most heavily hyped rookie pitcher debut since probably Stephen Strasburg and he was the first ever to start an All-Star Game the year after he was drafted in the first round.

If this race is close right now for the voters, however, the workload is worth monitoring.

Skenes had a stretch where he went at least seven innings in four out of five starts from June 23-July 23, but since then he hasn't gotten a single out in the seventh inning. He only lasted five innings in each of his last two starts and he's generally getting a bit less efficient with his pitch counts.

There's also the looming possibility that the Pirates shut him down or at least skip a start or two.

This is to say that if Skenes is the clear leader in the clubhouse, the door remains open for a sneak attack.

Jackson Merrill, Padres

Merrill has been a stat-sheet stuffer all year. The 21-year-old center fielder -- who converted there from shortstop this past spring -- is hitting .294/.326/.502 (128 OPS+) with 23 doubles, six triples, 22 home runs, 82 RBI, 69 runs and 16 stolen bases.

He's been clutch, too, with five home runs in the ninth inning or later that either tied the game or put the Padres ahead. That's a record for someone 21 or younger. It isn't just those hits, as they are only an example. He's had big hits all season and everyone who has watched the Padres regularly knows this. He had a couple more Wednesday night in a comeback win, including a three-run homer to start said comeback.

If you're into this sort of thing, it sure seems like Merrill's Padres are headed to the playoffs and he's a big part of that. Skenes' Pirates are not going to make the postseason.

Merrill has appeared in 136 games this season while Skenes has only started 19. I'm not sure this is a 100% fair comparison, because the starting pitcher impacts the game exponentially more than anyone else on the days he pitches. It's tough to come up with a way to compare a full-time player with a starting pitcher over the course of the season in terms of impact on the team.

Baseball Reference's WAR shows Skenes with a 5.1 advantage over Merrill's 3.7. On FanGraphs, Merrill leads 4.4 to 3.3.

I've seen people suggest that maybe batters faced for a pitcher vs. plate appearances could help. Skenes has faced 444 batters while Merrill has 520 plate appearances.

Maybe the next several weeks will give us some clarity?

There's great talent beyond these two, also. One has been so good lately he has a chance to slip into the top two or even win the award here with a furious final month.

Jackson Chourio , Brewers

The 20-year-old outfielder signed an 8-year, $82 million extension with the Brewers this past spring before he'd even played an MLB game. They were that sure he would pan out. Chourio struggled for a bit, but he's 20! Things started to click in late June. Through June 22, he was slashing .223/.272/.351 with only six doubles, seven homers, 26 RBI, 27 runs and eight stolen bases.

Chourio is hitting .279/.332/.471 with 24 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs, 69 RBI, 69 runs, 20 stolen bases and 3.6 WAR now.

A big part of his case is how much he's stepped up after the Brewers lost Christian Yelich for the season. They haven't missed a beat and hold the biggest divisional lead in the majors at 10 games in the NL Central.

He seems like the leader for third place at this point, but there are two others who could sneak in with very strong finishes.

Shota Imanaga , Cubs - He's 31, but he's a rookie in MLB. Imanaga has been very good from the start and made the All-Star team. Wednesday, he threw the first seven innings of a combined no-hitter. He's now 12-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 155 strikeouts against 25 walks in 153 1/3 innings.

Masyn Winn , Cardinals - He's slashing .277/.324/.415 with 26 doubles, four triples, 12 homers, 49 RBI, 69 runs, 10 steals and 4.5 WAR -- a very high figure thanks to exceptional defense at shortstop.