Former QB Gives Warning To Those Buying The Caleb Williams Hype

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had arguably the best season of any rookie quarterback in NFL history, and unfairly or not, many expect the same this season from Chicago Bears rookie Caleb Williams.

But can Williams really replicate what Stroud accomplished last season when he posted the second-lowest interception rate (1%), the third-highest passer rating (100.8) and third-most passing yards (4,108) and the sixth-most touchdowns (23) among rookie QBs?

Former NFL quarterback-turned-ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky says no.

“I think there’s two reasons why I sit there and say well Caleb can have a really strong year, but it’s unrealistic to say, ‘Let’s go do what C.J. did,’” Orlovsky said on “First Take.” “No. 1, C.J. came from a much more [NFL] ready Xs and Os intellect, football-wise. When he was at Ohio State, Ryan Day ran a ton of pro-style stuff when it came to formations, personnel groupings, action after the snap and pass game. So C.J. stepped into a system with Bobby Slowik that he had a lot of recall from college of. Caleb does not come from that.

“…[USC is] very different than what he’s going to run in Chicago with Shane Waldron. … I think he’s smart enough to get to where C.J. did, but he doesn’t have that baseline, foundational starting point. It’s unrealistic to think that Caleb is just going to step in and hit the ground running the same way that C.J. did.”

Orlovsky also pointed out there’s only been five QBs to ever throw for 4,000 or more yards during their rookie season — Stroud, Andrew Luck (4,374), Justin Herbert (4,336), Cam Newton (4,051) and Jameis Winston (4,042).

And while Williams has arguably a better supporting cast (RB D’Andre Swift, WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, TEs Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett) than Stroud had last year, there’s no denying he’ll be battling a learning curve switching from USC’s Air Raid offense Waldron’s pro-style one that’s predicated on pre-snap motion, yards after the catch and early-down throwing.

“I don’t see it; what C.J. did last year was historically in the conversation for the greatest rookie season a quarterback has ever had in the NFL,” Orlovsky added. “It’s like comparing everybody to Patrick Mahomes — it’s not fair.”