Why Mountain West interest in long-term relationship with Oregon State, Washington State may be waning

LAS VEGAS -- The Pac-12 held a media day last week disguised as a cocktail party.

The event, labeled "After Hours with the Beavs and Cougs," was equal parts maudlin, inspiring, pep rally and Irish wake. There was an open bar with finger foods. There was an inspirational, three-part film titled "Welcome To The Fight" centered on conference holdovers Oregon State and Washington State.

There was a past and future theme with former greats from both programs participating. Folks cried, or came damn close to it.

"We are drinking tonight during this event," Pac-12 commissioner Theresa Gould said. "And I would venture to say that if anybody has earned the right to drink, it is the Pac-12, OK?"

"I was pissed, frankly," former Washington State quarterback Jack Thompson said of the league's dissolution.

"They're going to come scrambling back," former Wazzu great Ryan Leaf said of the departed Pac-12 schools.

There's an unwritten rule to lure media: If you offer free food and drink, you'll get coverage. That's less of an issue than where the two programs ultimately land after being the only Pac-12 schools left out during the last round of realignment. That after a combined 214 years as Pac-12 members.

The future is uncertain, but the prevailing thought has been the Beavers and Cougars will end up as Mountain West members by 2026 when the new College Football Playoff contract begins.

On the surface, it makes sense for the best Group of Five conference to take in the last two Power Five schools remaining from the realignment chaos.

But after a week of speaking to industry sources during various media days, there seems to be momentum toward the Mountain West cooling on inclusion of Oregon State and Washington State. Such a move has been portrayed as expansion, a merger or a reverse-merger. (Although, it's hard to envision who reverse-merges with whom.)

The Mountain West has a scheduling agreement with both teams for the 2024 season with a mutual option to continue the partnership in 2025. Might as well make that a Mountain West option because it's becoming clear the conference doesn't necessarily need or even want the Beavers and Cougars on a full-time membership basis.

"I don't know if the Mountain West thinks they need these two schools, honestly," Gould said. "I would imagine If and when those conversations ever take place it's going to be based in part on the economics of the decision and what they bring to the table."

"The intent is to have a decision [2025] before we start this football season," she added said. "There is so much riding on that in terms of future media rights, recruiting decisions, all those things."

That's not to say a Mountain West expansion/merger can't happen, it's just that the league has developed a bit of leverage since latest realignment train came to a halt last summer. If that's the case, where exactly do the Beavs and Cougs end up, if anywhere? They are essentially competing as independents in 2024.

Here are some informed answers after a week of crowdsourcing:

The College Football Playoff has given the Mountain West more certainty and stability . As arguably the strongest Group of Five league top to bottom, it is now virtually assured of a playoff berth each year in the newly expanded 12-team CFP.

Essentially, the conference can count on playing for something big each season. Coaches can sell that to both high school recruits and players in the transfer portal. League favorite Boise State is somewhat used the chase, having finished in the top 11 of the AP Top 25 every year but one from 2006-2011 during its Chris Petersen glory years.

The current membership is lean and mean with San Diego State, Fresno, Boise State and Air Force each winning at least 10 games since 2021. UNLV won nine last year for the first time since 1984.

The Mountain West leads all Group of Five conferences, playing 35 games against Power Four opponents in 2024. Since 2019, the Mountain West has won 19 games against Power Five opponents, only two fewer than the dearly departed Pac-12 in that time span.

"It is really important for us that that the [selection] committee recognize that our coaches are swinging for the fences," Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. "Certainly our coaches have to get it done on the field, but c'mon, you got to have credit for that."

Do Oregon State and Washington State change the math that much ?

The addition of Oregon State and Washington State would mean only a 10% to 15% increase in the current Mountain West deal, according to one veteran industry source with experience in television negotiations.

"I don't think it will be that much," countered Jim Williams, Emmy-winning sports media consultant. "I would think more like 10 [percent]. Fifteen percent is way too much."

The Mountain West currently has a deal with CBS Sports and Fox Sports through the 2025 football season that pays it approximately $45 million per year. TNT Sports announced a multi-year deal with the league beginning this season. Those games were termed "leftovers" after CBS and Fox receive the prime selections. Terms were not released.

TNT could get aggressive in future negotiations, however, considering it has seemingly lost its NBA rights and would need some live event inventory.

Because the CBS/Fox deal is quickly coming up for renewal, something must happen quickly. The parties are essentially a year out on the end of the current agreement. The main question: Does a 14-team league that includes the Pac-12 leftovers significantly increase the new media rights deal?

For now, the two schools have what can be termed a "skinny deal" with the CW to show 11 games this season. One estimate is that they will receive $1 million per game .

The Mountain West obviously would like to protect its turf, and there are other options besides standing pat.

The "Pac-2" could leverage a best-of-the-rest takeover featuring the best brands in the Mountain West. Something similar failed last summer when CBS Sports reported an attempt by San Diego State to assemble the best of the Mountain West, American as well as Cal, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State to form a new conference that would hopefully have Power Five designation.

That would cripple the remaining Mountain West and American schools. Meanwhile, Cal and Stanford now seem committed to the ACC as long it remains in its current form.

Oregon State and Washington State could simply be taken in as the 13th and 14th conference schools, but that doesn't necessarily make the conference stronger. We're already seeing how the Pac-12's death has impacted both. Ex-Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith -- a former Beavers star QB -- took the job at Michigan State. Washington State athletic director Patrick Chun left for the same role at rival Washington.

This year's Apple Cup rivalry game has been impacted in that neutral officials from the Big 12 will work the game in Seattle. Washington State suddenly became a visiting team from a rival "conference" after realignment. Washington officials didn't want the few remaining Pac-12 referees working the game.

Oregon State and Washington State have a $265 million "war chest" of available funds it could use for at least its short-term needs. But since they are not in a conference -- which would assure a constant flow of media rights -- those millions are a finite number and the well will eventually run dry.

The pot consists mainly of leftover Pac-12 basketball units, CFP money and bowl earnings. But there is also substantial debt. A lot of that money could go to cover Mountain West exit fees if there is a raid as described above.

Mountain West schools would owe $18 million each if they give notice more than one year out. The figure doubles to $36 million if inside a year. The two schools must decide how to fund revenue sharing that comes from the House v. NCAA settlement – possibly up to $21 million per year for the next 10 years.

"Much of that money is money that is associated with business agreements and other revenues that the Pac-12 would have had whether we had 12 schools or two schools, so it's normal revenue streams," Gould said. "Much of that money is being used for the same purpose; it would not matter how many members we had.

"Then there is a portion of it put aside that we are very much viewing as restricted funds for us to think about long-term strategy."

What is the value of the Pac-12 brand itself? While the trademarked logo brings back memories and evokes history and tradition, it wouldn't necessarily bring meaningful revenue.

There is no Pac-12 in its traditional form, but the conference still lives under a trademark. Does "Pac-12" sound better than the Mountain West or Pac-Mountain 14 or whatever? Absolutely. But industry sources told CBS Sports the two schools can't count on it as a revenue stream.

"Why would you want to expand just to expand?" Williams said. "It's like you or me going out and somebody selling us five bucks the Big Eight Conference. We have all the details, but it's not the Big Eight Conference."

It was a heck of a party/media day Wednesday night. If nothing else, it was clear the Pac-12, Washington State and Oregon State aren't going to give up easily.

"We are all fighters and we are not going to back down," Gould said.

"We're ass-kicking people," Thompson said. "College football, college sports needs us."

The enduring tradition of the two schools is that they do more with less resources.

"I'm the only Montanan who has ever been drafted in the first round," Leaf said. "There's more first-round draft picks in the Manning family than the whole state of Montana."