Putting the Big Ten in Tiers

by Kyle Golik

Toilet Tier - Big Ten’s Worst

Toilet Bowl Swimmers: UCLA, Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State

Take : The fact UCLA is back at in the toilet bowl is a shame. The strides UCLA made under Chip Kelly simply vanished when both Kelly and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn left. This isn’t an indictment on new head coach DeShaun Foster , but they are truly rebuilding a foundation once again.

Losing Pat Fitzgerald a year ago for Northwestern due to a hazing scandal has sent the program into the toilet bowl. Much like Foster at UCLA, I don’t feel David Braun is the answer in Evanston and this program will struggle to win four games this year.

Much like Northwestern, Purdue's loss of head coach Jeff Brohm to his alma mater still has the Boilermakers trying to engineer a way back to respectability. Hiring Ryan Walters from Illinois after a 2022 campaign that was worthy of Broyles Award recognition was a win, but one that will not be seen for a while. Typically, Purdue has been offensive-minded since Joe Tiller restored the pride in the program. Going to a defensive-first coach will bear fruit in time.

Mel Tucker’s shenanigans and distractions broke a Michigan State program that went to a Peach Bowl in 2021 to now being the worst team in the Big Ten. Fortunately for Spartan fans, luring Jonathan Smith away from his alma mater and a known builder should get the Spartans out of the toilet bowl sooner rather than later.

Shark Tier - Big Ten’s Spoilers

Dangerous but Inconsistent: Rutgers, Washington, Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois

Take: While Washington played for a National Championship last season, losing DeBoer to Alabama and a bevy of offensive talent hurts. Luring Jedd Fisch from Arizona where he redefined that program over his three seasons going from 1-11 in 2021 to 10-3 last season. I expect Washington to hang around 7-5 this season. Despite the lowly prediction, they have ample opportunities to play spoiler behind Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers at quarterback and leaning on Elijah Jackson at corner and defensive lineman Alphonzo Tuputala .

Since returning to Piscataway, Greg Schiano has had a few of the Big Ten’s elite flirting with disaster before not being able to complete the upset. The Scarlet Knights are coming off their first winning season since 2014 and they don’t have to play Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, or Iowa. Outside of trips to Southern California and Nebraska, all their games seem winnable. This could be the nation’s surprise team if the Scarlet Knights handle their business at Virginia Tech.

While Minnesota and Indiana seem to be on a rebound, I never put anything past P.J. Fleck , who is one of the sport’s best motivators and relishes playing the spoiler. I like the swagger Curt Cignetti brings to Bloomington after going 52-9 at James Madison. Indiana is reprieved on the Big Ten schedule like Rutgers and could go bowling their first season giving a lot of ingredients to be a shark.

Since Bret Bielema returned to Illinois, he has changed the culture of the program and they are no longer the doormat of the Big Ten. They pushed Michigan to the brink in 2022 and always seem to put a national power on upset alert. As long as the Illini find a way to get wide receiver Patrick Bryant the ball they are always primed for an upset.

Middle Powers

Middle of the Pack: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Maryland

Take: No program embodies being the Big Ten middle power like Maryland. In a lot of ways being a consistent program is what the Terrapins are trying to strive for. During the Mike Locksley era, they have been able to beat Penn State once and win three consecutive bowl games in three consecutive seasons for the first time in program history.

Despite these highlights, when Penn State has been at full strength, they have obliterated the Terps by 142 points in four losses, while they have been competitive in games with Michigan and Ohio State they seem to falter at the very end.

What Maryland has strived to be is what Wisconsin is trying to not be.

When athletic director Chris McIntosh relieved Paul Chryst of his head coaching duties and passed on Wisconsin legend Jim Leonhard as head coach in favor of Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell , it signaled the expectations McIntosh had for the program. Fickell had developed Cincinnati from a Group of 5 program that was a meddling program to becoming the first Group of 5 to make the College Football Playoff and in turn getting a Power 5 invite.

Things will take time for Fickell to get his system implemented as the Badgers modernize their offense going from a physical approach to an Air Raid spread attack that many Badgers fans aren’t used to. Fickell had Wisconsin trending up, and the Badgers have plenty of opportunities to reassert themselves in the Big Ten. I feel they can clip either Southern California or Penn State. They do have to take on Alabama in their out-of-conference schedule, however, and how they perform in that early season test will be a major tell for where the program is.

Matt Rhule is the steady hand Nebraska has needed ever since cutting ties with Bo Pelini a decade ago. Rhule is building a culture that Nebraska hasn’t had since Frank Solich was in Lincoln. His ability to land Dylan Raiola might be the most transformative recruit in program history. Raiola should be the starter against UTEP, but the Week 2 grudge match against rival Colorado will be a major tell.

The Cornhuskers will have one of the conference's top defensive line units behind that of Penn State and Ohio State. Nebraska could hit nine wins this year if all things fall into place.

Elite is an Illusion - Big Ten Near Elite

Close But Not Quite: Michigan, Penn State, Southern California, Iowa

Take: Defending national champion Michigan Wolverines were a veteran-led group and losing quarterback JJ McCarthy early for the NFL just added to the mass senior exodus and head coach Jim Harbaugh. New head coach Sherrone Moore looks to continue to maintain Harbaugh’s strategy with the physicality on the lines, grinding it out on the ground, and having the quarterback make the plays necessary.

It is time to see if running back Donovan Edwards is for real or if his brash comments prior to 2023 comparing himself to immortal running backs Walter Payton and Barry Sanders were foolish .

Iowa eradicated itself of Brian Ferentz, finally culling its biggest issue of the past half-decade. New offensive coordinator Tim Lester is looking to maximize the talents of former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara , who is hoping for a fully healthy season in Iowa City.

Defensively, the Hawkeyes have been amongst the nation’s elite under defensive coordinator and reigning Broyles Award winner Phil Parker . Parker’s defenses have been in the nation’s Top 10 in scoring defense in four of the previous five seasons. Iowa may have the nation’s top linebacker unit with Jay Higgins , Nick Jackson , and Sebastian Castro .

What keeps Iowa from the elite of the Big Ten is their inability to keep difference makers at Iowa (see Kadyn Proctor,) or even attract them to begin with. They have an amazing foundation that has them perennially positioned to win nine games annually, if they have a difference maker or two that is what will get them to elite status.

What keeps Southern California away from elite status is the same thing many of us have been pointing out about Lincoln Riley since his Oklahoma days: defense.

This offseason, Riley built in my mind a near-dream team defensive coaching unit with D’Anton Lynn, Matt Entz , and Doug Belk . The Trojans have shown flashes during recruiting but losses of a pair of five-star defensive line talent still keeps the Trojans from being elite.

Offensively, however, the Trojans will be one of the more potent offenses in the country yet again with Miller Moss poised to break out after a huge performance in the Holiday Bowl this past season.

What is always frustrating about Penn State is that head coach James Franklin continues to recruit with the best of them in the nation. Franklin has had a few coups in the transfer portal notably defensive lineman Arnold Ebiketie, Chop Robinson, and hopefully the same luck from former Ohio State wide receiver Julian Fleming .

The issue I have beaten up on Franklin many times , almost ad nauseam to Nittany Lions fans, is his inability to win big games. They know the record, and you the reader know how bad Franklin teams are in the big moments, until they reverse course in those moments, being elite will always be an illusion for Penn State fans.

Elite

The Big Ten's Best: Oregon and Ohio State

Take: What Dan Lanning is doing in Eugene is everything Oregon fans expected he would do. And it's something that predecessors Mario Cristobal and Mark Helfrich could not. Oregon is built like an SEC team and 2024 looks like the first season the Ducks will put the nation on notice of just how good they are.

Oregon will once again have the nation’s most experienced quarterback in Dillon Gabriel , who looks to give NFL scouts a great impression in Will Stein’s offense. Lanning has his potential successor in former five-star recruit and UCLA import Dante Moore .

Gabriel should be flanked by one of the nation’s best-receiving groups of Tez Johnson , Gary Bryant , and Traeshon Holden . The Ducks hope to realize the potential of former five-star wide receiver Evan Stewart who comes to Eugene from College Station.

Additionally, three starters return on an offensive line that was nominated for the Joe Moore Award. That group allowed only five sacks to Bo Nix last season and looks to continue their dominance for their latest transfer quarterback.

On the defensive side of the ball, which is Lanning’s forte, the Ducks should have one of the nation’s best back sevens. Lanning’s Achilles’ heel has been his aggressiveness, but it seems that each failure he has only makes him better. His coaching acumen will be put to the test on October 12 when Ohio State visits Autzen.

They'll take on an Ohio State team that has lost four regular season games since 2021. Of those four, three have been to Michigan, and the other was to Oregon, who beat Ohio State in Columbus 35-28 in 2021.

With a near mastery of the Big Ten the last three seasons, sans Michigan, Ohio State is the top program and seemingly permanent fixture in the elite tier of the Big Ten.

Ryan Day is 38-0 against all other Big Ten teams not named Michigan. I feel the defending national champions, with a new coach, a mass exodus of seniors, and downgrades at key positions like quarterback and running back, Ohio State should get retribution when Michigan visits The Horseshoe at the end of the regular season.

The bevy of talent Ohio State possesses in all three phases is unrivaled heading into 2024 and should get the Buckeyes at least their fourth appearance into the College Football Playoff under Day, anything less will be a major disappointment.