Fantasy baseball Sunday advice: Rebound for Giants rookie?

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips . MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring .

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

Heating up in the desert

Through May 31, the Arizona Diamondbacks were a season-low seven games below .500. Four long months remained, but there was work to be done if they club wanted a chance to defend its 2023 National League championship.

Entering Saturday's action, the Diamondbacks sat a season-high 11 games above .500. They held the second NL wild-card spot and were just 3.5 games behind the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers .

Much of the credit belongs to the Diamondbacks offense, as they lead the league in runs per game. No, that is not a typo. Heading into Saturday's slate, the Diamondbacks' 5.14 runs per game lead MLB, followed by the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees , both at 5.09 runs per game.

Arizona has needed just about all of those runs with a pitching staff sporting the sixth-worst ERA in the majors. However, the makeshift rotation recently got a boost from Eduardo Rodriguez , and steady Merrill Kelly is slated to come off the IL on Sunday to take the hill for the first time since April 15.

Kelly has been out with a teres major strain in his right shoulder. After making 63 combined starts over the past two years, Kelly logged just four this season before being sidelined. With seven weeks left, there is still plenty of time for Kelly to ramp up and contribute to a hopeful postseason run.

Kelly is more reliable than dominant, though last season he posted a personal-best 25.9% strikeout rate. His forte is keeping hitters off balance, preventing barrels, hence limiting homers. Last Tuesday, the righty tossed four innings in a rehab start with High-A Hillsboro. Kelly threw 62 pitches (38 strikes, 61.2%) and fanned a pair with no walks.

Don't expect Kelly to pitch deep into games right away, especially in his return facing the Philadelphia Phillies at home. However, he logged at least six frames in 19 of his 30 starts last season and in each of his first three this season. Innings are an overlooked component of points-league scoring.

Even without having taken a major league mound for almost four months, Kelly is only available in one-third of ESPN leagues. That could increase since he will no longer be eligible to be stashed on the fantasy IL. After Sunday's outing, Kelly merits roster consideration in deeper leagues, especially if the offensive support remains at a high pace.

Everything else you need to know for Sunday

• The early start returns with an 11:35 a.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park with the Washington Nationals hosting the Los Angeles Angels . The Sunday night ESPN affair features the Seattle Mariners entertaining the New York Mets .
• Sunday's top-ranked streamer happens to be Kelly's mound foe, as Cristopher Sanchez (36.0% rostered in ESPN leagues) will get the nod for the Phillies. However, this feels like a trap game, as Sanchez has been inconsistent lately, and fueling the Diamondbacks' league-leading scoring is a low strikeout rate. Especially in head-to-head leagues, this is a risky way to capture points on the last day of the transaction period.
• Next up is San Francisco Giants RHP Hayden Birdsong (12.1% rostered) for his home date with the Detroit Tigers . Over his first six career outings, Birdsong posted a 2.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with an impressive 38 punchouts in 30 1/3 frames. That said, he issued 15 walks while yielding four homers during that span, portending tougher times. Sure enough, the rookie was hit hard last time out, surrendering seven runs to the Washington Nationals in just two innings. With the Tigers and the league's fifth-lowest wOBA facing righties on the docket, Birdsong is in a great spot to right his wings.
• After the Baltimore Orioles reinforced their rotation at the deadline, it appeared that swingman Albert Suarez was headed back to his long relief role. However, after SP Grayson Rodriguez was placed on the IL, Suarez remains in the rotation and has a Sunday start in St. Petersburg on tap. Suarez will take on a Tampa Bay Rays lineup sporting the 10th-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate since the break with a righty on the hill.

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart , which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Sean Murphy (ATL, C -- 35%) at Kyle Freeland
• Whit Merrifield (ATL, 2B -- 3%) at Freeland
• Jarred Kelenic (ATL, LF -- 7%) at Freeland
• Luis Garcia Jr . (WSH, 2B -- 30%) vs. Davis Daniel
• Adam Duvall (ATL, CF -- 1%) at Freeland
• Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 6%) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
• Ernie Clement (TOR, SS -- 3%) vs. JP Sears
• Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF -- 30%) vs. Andrew Heaney
• Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C -- 4%) vs. Sears
• Orlando Arcia (ATL, SS -- 9%) at Freeland

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

• Jackson Holliday (BAL, SS -- 61%) at Jeffrey Springs
• Cedric Mullins (BAL, CF -- 54%) at Springs
• Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 79%) vs. Heaney
• Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 70%) at Merrill Kelly
• Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 63%) at Luis Castillo
• J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 78%) at Kelly
• Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B -- 98%) at Castillo
• Brent Rooker (OAK, RF -- 87%) at Chris Bassitt
• Royce Lewis (MIN, 3B -- 86%) vs. Tanner Bibee
• Jazz Chisholm Jr . (NYY, CF -- 89%) vs. Heaney