If you thought, "This Schwartz fella is crazy for finding preseason wagers in Week 1 and Week 2," you might be right because I'm back again with even more bets for Week 3.
There are 16 games left in the NFL preseason schedule and every team gets one more opportunity to get on the field before the regular season starts on September 5 in Kansas City .
Week 3 is the trickiest of the slate because almost no starters will see the field, so we are handicapping games based on backups and motivation.
With that in mind, let's get motivated to win some money with my three best bets for the weekend.
All Times ET
Thursday, August 22
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (8 p.m., Prime Video)
Indianapolis is a team that appears to care about the preseason, and it's playing a team that does not. The Colts have scored 30 points (in a loss) and 21 points in a win last weekend.
Head coach Shane Steichen announced that the starters will play some against the Bengals. While you should always take that announcement with a grain of salt, it’s another data point proving that the Colts are trying to win in the preseason.
Indy's offense is Steichen’s to call, but in the preseason, he lets other coaches run the offense in the Colts' games. Ultimately, those coaches are always trying to push the ball and score points.
This week they face the Bengals, who appear to be the opposite of the Colts. Cincinnati just doesn't care about the results of these games. The Bengals have lost 17-14 and 27-3 with an offense that barely registers a pulse.
PICK: Colts (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points
Saturday, August 24
Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m.)
The Carolina Panthers have played two preseason games without putting a starter on the field. They played both games with backup quarterback Andy Dalton . And although he’s got a quad injury, he's played, and he has practiced.
To no surprise, the Panthers offense has been unwatchable through two games. Carolina scored three points against the Patriots and only 12 against the Jets . It only got to 12 by accident, too, as the Panthers weren’t attempting a two-minute drill but happened to score via the run anyway.
The Bills are not playing starters on Saturday, but that shouldn’t matter much. Their team is deeper than the Panthers and Sean McDermott is a covering machine in the preseason. He’s covered over 60% of the preseason games he’s coached.
PICK: Bills (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
New York Giants @ New York Jets (7:30 p.m., NFL Network)
There are two types of teams this preseason. There are teams who care about the games — like the Chiefs and Bears who have played starters while appearing to game plan for their opponent. And then you have squads like the Jets, who’d rather be doing something else.
The Jets have not played quarterback Aaron Rodgers , which isn’t all that newsworthy. He hasn’t played in the preseason at all in a NYJ uniform. However, the Jets have played Tyrod Taylor — their backup quarterback — only a single possession over the first two games.
They've scored 20 points and 15 points in their two games with backups playing. They're playing the New York Giants, who tried in at least one half last week against the Texans and still couldn't score. The Giants have scored three points and 10 points in two preseason games. Their roster is not deep, and once the backups are on the field, they can’t move the ball on offense.
This battle for New York is going to be ugly, so give me the Under.
PICK: Under 31.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @ GeoffSchwartz .
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