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The likelihood that the Colts single-season passing records are broken in 2024
By Destin Adams,
20 days ago
The Indianapolis Colts 2024 Training Camp is right around the corner, with players set to report on June 24.
Before the 2024 season begins, I want to look at the Colts franchise single-season records. And share how likely it is that each could be broken this year. This series will be broken up into four parts as we will cover the Colts' single-season leaders for passing, rushing, receiving, and defensive statistics.
Part one of this series will focus on the team's single-season passing stats, which the team's starter, Anthony Richardson, will be chasing throughout his career.
Colts single-season passing records
Below, I will list each single-season passing record in the Colts franchise's history. Next, I will share my thoughts on how likely it is to be broken in 2024 using labels highly unlikely, unlikely, likely, and highly likely.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Passing Yards Andrew Luck 2014: 4,761 yards
Chance to be broken in 2024: Highly unlikely
Richardson will be entering year two still awfully new to the NFL scene after only appearing in four games as a rookie before a shoulder injury would end his season. Though I, like many others, think Richardson's second season will be very successful, I have a hard time seeing him reach the Colts single-season record set by Andrew Luck in 2014 when he threw for 4,761 yards.
Luck set this record during his third season in the NFL after the Colts drafted him with the number one overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. While Luck was a solid athlete and used his legs when necessary, he was primarily a pocket passer during his career. Richardson, though, is a true dual-threat QB whose rushing ability will always be a big part of his game. And that style of QB's passing numbers typically takes a slight hit in terms of total production as a result.
Two QBs that Richardson often gets compared to are Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and former Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton. Both won the NFL's MVP award during their careers, but between the two of them, the only season with over 4,000 passing yards came from Newton's rookie season in 2011, where he threw for 4,051. Even during Newton's MVP season in 2015, he only threw for 3,837 yards. And Jackson has yet to throw for over 4,000 passing yards in a season, with his career-high coming last year, when he threw for 3,678 yards. So, I honestly find it highly unlikely that Richardson is able to surpass this impressive record during what would be his first complete season if he can remain healthy. And to be honest, it's not very likely that he will ever do so.
The Colts' franchise passing records are going to be a steep challenge for Richardson to surpass during his career. Especially with him being a dynamic runner, as I shared above. Their single-season passing touchdown record will be by far the hardest for him to surpass, though. Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning set the Colts single-season passing touchdowns record in 2004 with 49. This is nine more touchdowns than any other Colts QB has thrown for in a single season, with Luck having the second most with the 40 he threw in 2014.
Manning's 49 touchdowns in 2004 aren't just impressive in the Colts record books. This is the fourth most touchdowns thrown in a single season in NFL history. Manning also set the NFL single-season record in 2013 with the Denver Broncos by throwing 55. The only other two QBs to throw for 49 or more touchdowns in a single season during their careers are Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. So, for Richardson to set the Colts' single-season touchdown record, he has to do something that only Manning, Brady, and Mahomes have done in NFL history. So I'd say that feat is highly unlikely for a second-year QB, especially one who also utilizes his legs at a high rate, like Richardson.
Lastly, there is a record Richardson wants no part in surpassing, which is the single-season interception record. Manning set the Colts single-season record as well as the NFL rookie record with 28 in 1998. Since Manning did it, only two QBs have surpassed his interception total: Brett Farve threw 29 in 2005, and Jamesis Winston threw 30 in 2019.
With Richardson likely having significantly fewer pass attempts this year than QBs like Manning and Luck had, I find it highly unlikely that he would be able to throw 28 or more interceptions. As I mentioned, we can use Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton as examples. During Manning's 17-year career, he averages just over 551 pass attempts per season. During Jackson's six-year career, he has averaged 352 pass attempts, and the most attempts he's had in a season is 457, which happened last season in 2023. Newton averaged just over 406 pass attempts per season during his 11-year career, with his career-high coming during his rookie season in 2011 with 517 attempts.
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