2024 Brickyard 400 odds, lineup, predictions, start time: Model shares surprising NASCAR at Indianapolis picks

The 2024 Brickyard 400 will be held on Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the first time since 2020 the NASCAR Cup Series has raced on the quad-oval at the Brickyard. Declining attendance figures led to NASCAR shaking up the schedule by racing on the road course in Indianapolis the last three seasons, but now the drivers will have to adjust once again as they take the next-gen cars to the rectangular oval for the first time. The green flag is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET and NASCAR at Indianapolis 2024 is scheduled for 160 laps around the 2.5-mile track.

Despite only spending three years away from the quad-oval, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch are the only two active drivers with wins in the Brickyard 400 and they're 8-1 and 35-1 in the 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis odds, respectively. Denny Hamlin is the 15-4 favorite as a three-time winner this season, followed in the 2024 Brickyard 400 odds by Kyle Larson (6-1), Ryan Blaney (8-1) and Keselowski. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at the Brickyard predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Brickyard 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

It called its first winner of the 2024 season with Kyle Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Brickyard 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Indianapolis leaderboard .

Top 2024 Brickyard 400 predictions

For the 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis race, the model is high on William Byron, even though he's a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2024 Brickyard 400 odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Coming off a career-high six victories and finishing a career-best third in the NASCAR standings, Byron has added three more wins to his tally in 2024 and he's fifth in the standings.

Byron led laps in all three of his NASCAR Cup Series starts on the quad-oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and finished fourth in the 2019 Brickyard 400. He also won on the oval in the Xfinity Series at the 2017 Lilly Diabetes 250 and is coming off a strong fourth-place run in Pocono last week. Hendrick Motorsports has won the Brickyard 400 on 10 occasions since its inception in 1994.

Another massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Indianapolis starting lineup. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion is only seventh in the NASCAR standings but he's coming off his second win of the season in Pocono last week.

However, he's struggled historically on the quad-oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, securing one top-10 finish in six career starts there before NASCAR opted for the road course in 2021. Blaney also finished outside the top 10 in two of his three starts on the road course and it's hard to back the 30-year-old given his struggles at the Brickyard. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine .

How to make 2024 NASCAR at the Brickyard picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2024 Brickyard 400 odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine .

So who wins the 2024 Brickyard 400, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Indianapolis leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year .

2024 Brickyard 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Indianapolis picks at SportsLine .

Denny Hamlin 15-4
Kyle Larson 6-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Ryan Blaney 8-1
Chase Elliott 9-1
Martin Truex Jr. 12-1
Christopher Bell 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Tyler Reddick 12-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Chris Buescher 16-1
Ty Gibbs 16-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Bubba Wallace 28-1
Kyle Busch 35-1
Ross Chastain 35-1
Josh Berry 40-1
Austin Cindric 60-1
Erik Jones 65-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1
Michael McDowell 100-1
Noah Gragson 125-1
Carson Hocevar 125-1
Chase Briscoe 150-1
AJ Allmendinger 150-1
Todd Gilliland 200-1
John Hunter Nemechek 250-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Austin Dillon 300-1
Zane Smith 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 350-1
Corey Lajoie 400-1
Jimmie Johnson 500-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Daniel Hemric 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1