The hardest part of the Chiefs' daunting quest for a Super Bowl three-peat is already behind them

Alright, full transparency for a second. When concocting the idea of discussing why the Chiefs could three-peat, all I was going to write down was “They have a good offensive line, a good defense, Andy Reid, and Patrick Mahomes. Something something Taylor Swift. Thanks for reading.”

But alas, the lovely folks at The Sporting News politely said “We’re going to need a bit more than that, old chap” so here I am.

In reality, though, there isn’t much to be said about the Kansas City Chiefs that hasn’t already been said. Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback I’ve seen with my own eyes. Andy Reid has a serious argument as to why he is the second greatest coach in the history of the NFL. Travis Kelce is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Chris Jones very well may be, too. And Steve Spagnuolo may very well be the greatest defensive coordinator in NFL history. When you have all that greatness, it’s not hard to envision the endless wave of success that has crashed down upon them. Now, they'll look to do what no other team in NFL history has done - win a third consecutive Super Bowl.

The thing about this quest in particular for the Chiefs is that they've already done the hard part.

What the Chiefs accomplished in the 2023 season one of the most impressive things I’ve ever seen. They groggily sleepwalked their way through the regular season, and looked tumultuous at times while doing so. But when 2023 flipped to 2024, all 53 players simultaneously let out a big yawn, stretched, and flipped a switch.

Regular season adjustments

During the regular season, the biggest story in Kansas City was their lack of talent at receiver. Kadarius Toney dropped everything that was thrown at him, and the team as a whole was second in the NFL in drops with 39. Despite this, though, they didn’t run the ball a ton during the regular season. The Chiefs were 25th in attempts and 19th in yards on the ground. What did they do instead? They utilized the short passing game and made that their run game, more or less.

Kansas City was No. 1 in the NFL in success percentage on screen plays, and they used screens the second-most of any team in the NFL in 2023, per Sports Info Solutions. They were also sixth in the league in success percentage on passes off short dropbacks. The 2023 Chiefs were the inverse of the 2019 team that won their first Super Bowl of the Mahomes era. Rather than being Mike Tyson, they became Floyd Mayweather.

Even when we were all sitting at home saying this was finally the year the Chiefs would take a step back and laughing about how bad their receivers were, they were still 11th in EPA per play and eight in success rate on dropbacks. But we had grown so used to Kansas City being this buzzsaw that cut through everyone that even being a better-than-average offense looked like the world was ending.

This is where we should probably talk about how lethal the Chiefs’ defense was in 2023. Kansas City allowed the second fewest yards per game in the league, as well as the second fewest points all season. They were also sixth in defensive EPA per play and fourth in success rate. We talked about the Chiefs’ offense doing a complete 180 from what they were in the early Mahomes years - the same can be said about the defense. In 2019, they were 18th in EPA per play and 24th in success rate. And in Mahomes’ first year as a starter, the defense was even worse, finishing 28th in EPA per play. Sure, the Chiefs have changed their philosophy offensively, but it’s in large part because they no longer have to rely on putting up 35 points each week to win and they can lean more on their defense.

Postseason awakening

While they were still getting by efficiency wise, the Chiefs couldn’t score, which was the last thing anyone thought would be an issue. Kansas City’s offense only scored 39 touchdowns last season - the same amount as the Washington Commanders and the Minnesota Vikings, who started Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs for half of the year.  Which brings us to the aforementioned switch that this whole piece is centered around.

In the regular season, the Chiefs averaged only 21.8 points per game. However, they scored 25 or more points in three of their four postseason matchups. Their EPA per play jumped up from 0.021 to 0.071. For reference, their playoff EPA per play would have been the sixth best in the NFL during the regular season. They also played very complimentary football, as well.

In the wildcard game against Miami, they dared the Dolphins to beat them in the pass game. They held the Dolphins to 76 yards on the ground, and without a sustainable ground attack, Miami couldn’t open up the passing game. Tua Tagovailoa went 20-of-39 for 199 yards and finished with a QBR of 15.3.

Against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, their offense scored on five of their nine drives and only punted once. In the four drives the Chiefs didn’t score on, they took a knee into halftime, fumbled the ball at the Bills one yard-line, punted, and ran five plays to get a first down and end the game. They completely dominated the Bills defense.

Against Baltimore, Mahomes went 30-of-39 and the Chiefs won the turnover battle 3-0. And in the Super Bowl against the 49ers, anytime the offense made a mistake, the defense bailed them out. The Chiefs allowed zero points off turnovers - the 49ers allowed seven, which proved to be the difference maker.

So all of this has been a long, more in-detail way of telling you things you already know. Even when the Chiefs seem down, you can’t count on them remaining that way. From September through December of 2023, they were a sleeping giant that woke up once their real season began. Now, with Hollywood Brown added to the receiving corps, and largely the same cast returning from a season ago, save for L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs are in great position to make history and become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

If they do it, they are unquestionably the best dynasty in the history of football, and arguably the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. And who’s to say they can’t do it? After all they showed us last season, are you going to sit there and bet against the Chiefs? I know I'm not.