Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips . MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring .
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
Following up history
San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease enjoyed a magical performance his last time out, tossing a no-hitter against the rebuilding Washington Nationals last Thursday. But can he repeat or at least approach the effort in a much tougher follow-up matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers ?
The recent history of pitchers coming off no-hitters is especially discouraging. Here's a quick look at their returns in the masterpiece as well as their very next start:
No-hitter: averages of 35.3 fantasy points and 108.5 pitches thrown
Follow-up: averages of 4.7 FPTS, 82.3 pitches, 4.7 innings; 5.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP
In Cease's defense, this sample of no-no artists pales in comparison as far as both skill set and recent track record. Amongst the group, Framber Valdez (Aug. 1, 2023, no-hitter) is the only one within even 300 fantasy points of Cease's 1,525 scored since the beginning of 2021, and Carlos Rodon (April 14, 2021, no-hitter) and Joe Musgrove (April 9, 2021, no-hitter) are the only others who have even half as many fantasy points in that time. Valdez, Rodon and Musgrove averaged 8.3 points and 94.7 pitches thrown in their follow-up outings, serviceable enough numbers for our purposes.
It's the pitch counts in these outings -- often, a pitcher gets unusually large leeway with workload when working a no-hitter -- that might be the stronger measure. Cease threw 114 pitches last Thursday and will be working on five days' rest, so let's take a look next at this year's 16 instances of a pitcher throwing 110-plus pitches in an outing who have since worked a follow-up:
- Threw 110+: averaged 19.1 FPTS, 112.2 pitches, 6.5 innings; 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
- Follow-up: averaged 14.7 FPTS, 95.3 pitches, 6.0 innings; 3.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Cease himself accounted for two of these, going from 17 to 27 fantasy points on April 16 and 22, then 32 to eight on May 8 and 14, and despite the decrease in pitch counts in the samples above, the latter line represents very encouraging results. As he's one of the game's few starters capable of absorbing these kinds of outing-over-outing workloads, there's good reason to think he should be at close to full form on Wednesday, with the Padres only possibly capping his pitch count closer to the 95-100 range.
Is that enough to thrive against the Dodgers, the majors' fourth-best offense in terms of runs per game (4.93)? Probably, especially if we consider that the team, which is currently without Mookie Betts and Max Muncy (and possibly also Freddie Freeman , depending upon his status while on the family leave list), ranks only 16th in the category in the month of July (4.45). Start Cease with confidence for this one.
Everything else you need to know for Wednesday
- Taj Bradley has been a sensation since joining the Tampa Bay Rays' rotation on May 10, and he joins Cease as the only full-time starters who have active streaks of three consecutive scoreless outings (Bradley has 20 total innings in his three, while Cease has 22). A home start against the rebuilding Miami Marlins is one of the most favorable matchups a starter could draw, as even though the Marlins have shown some life offensively since the early-July release of Tim Anderson , they're nevertheless still only the 23rd-ranked team in runs per game for the month (4.09). Bradley's hot streak makes him a locked-in member of any fantasy lineup.
- Clayton Kershaw , Cease's opponent on Wednesday, threw only 72 pitches in his 2024 debut last Thursday, but he generated six strikeouts and 14 swings and misses and generally looked close to his pre-injury self. One drawback to his matchup, however, is that the opposing Padres have been the least strikeout-prone offense in the game this season (major league best 17.9% K rate). Expect something in the ballpark of 85 pitches, which is enough to make Kershaw a 15-team mixed and NL-only option, but probably not yet a clear, every-turn standard league option.
- Brady Singer , who has back-to-back scoreless starts, draws the league's by far most favorable matchup in the Chicago White Sox , who are in a deep rebuild and might trade away more offensive pieces before Tuesday's deadline. The projections therefore understandably love Singer, who remains available in more than 25% of ESPN leagues.
- Though the identity of the Toronto Blue Jays' Wednesday starter remains unknown, their trades and other roster moves leave them in a precarious spot on the pitching side, with newly acquired Jake Bloss their most logical option to start. Between Bloss' gopheritis in his most recent turn, the possibility that the Blue Jays will need to make Wednesday a bullpen game, and the taxing on their bullpen that recent trades and Monday's doubleheader have caused, Orioles hitters stand out as one of the day's best stacks. Colton Cowser and Ryan Mountcastle have been among the team's most productive hitters over the past week, and both should be in your lineups for this favorable matchup.
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league . Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart , which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
- Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 48%) vs. Ross Stripling
- TJ Friedl (CIN, CF -- 29%) vs. Kyle Hendricks
- Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 43%) vs. Yusei Kikuchi
- Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 34%) vs. Hendricks
- Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 46%) vs. Kyle Freeland
- Jeimer Candelario (CIN, 3B -- 22%) vs. Hendricks
- Anthony Rendon (LAA, 3B -- 1%) vs. Freeland
- Hunter Renfroe (KC, RF -- 3%) at Thorpe
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C -- 13%) vs. Hendricks
- J orge Polanco (SEA, 2B -- 4%) at Brayan Bello
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday
- Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 75%) vs. Chris Sale
- Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 93%) at Dylan Cease
- Brent Rooker (OAK, RF -- 80%) at Logan Webb
- Jackson Merrill (SD, SS -- 59%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
- Jake Cronenworth (SD, 1B -- 87%) vs. Kershaw
- Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 58%) at Davis Daniel
- Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 51%) at Framber Valdez
- Bryson Stott (PHI, 2B -- 82%) vs. Nestor Cortes
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT, LF -- 96%) at Valdez
- Willy Adames (MIL, SS -- 86%) vs. Sale
Local Los Angeles, CA
Most Popular
Comments / 0