Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) and Los Angeles Dodgers (53-35) open a 3-game set at Dodger Stadium Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Dodgers won 5-1 last year

The Brewers split a 4-game series at the Colorado Rockies Monday through Thursday, losing 4-3 as -128 favorites in the finale as the Under (11) easily hit. Milwaukee is 8-3 in its last 11 and hasn’t lost 2 straight since a 3-game skid June 20-22.

The Dodgers are coming off a disappointing series, dropping 2 of 3 home games to the Arizona Diamondbacks. L.A. was outscored 26-13 and wrapped up the series with a 9-3 loss as -109 favorites Thursday with the Over (8.5) cashing.

Brewers at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

Civale (2-6, 5.07 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 87 IP with the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Was traded to Milwaukee Wednesday from Tampa Bay
• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 8-1 home defeat to Washington Nationals Saturday
• 2024 road stats: 1-2, 6.10 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.59 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 8 starts
• Never faced Dodgers before

Glasnow (8-5, 3.23 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and MLB-best 11.9 K/9 in 103 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 14-7 win in 11 innings at San Francisco Giants Saturday
• 2024 home stats: 6-3, 3.21 ERA (56 IP, 20 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 9 starts
• Career vs. Brewers: 0-2, 6.14 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 2.11 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 2 starts and 4 relief appearances — last appearance in 2018 and last start in 2017

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Brewers at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:29 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Brewers +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Brewers at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Brewers 3

The Dodgers (-200) haven’t lost 3 straight since a 5-game skid May 21-26 and should bounce back against Civale and the Brewers. However, it’s hard to beat MLB long term laying -200 on teams, especially with the amount of vig in this line.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Both teams have done well when coming off a loss this season. According to Teamrankings.com, the Dodgers are 19-15 on the run line in this situation, while the Brewers are 19-16. L.A.’s advantage at starting pitcher is too overwhelming in this spot to take the Brewers, though.

Glasnow has been great at bouncing back after poor performances. MLB’s strikeout leader has not given up a run in 2 starts this season when coming off an outing with 5 or more ER allowed.

Civale, on the other hand, has lost at an impressive clip this year considering he was playing for the Rays; Tampa Bay went 1-9 in his last 10 starts.

BET DODGERS -1.5 (+105).

Civale has allowed 4 or more ER in 4 of his last 7 road starts, and L.A. (2nd in MLB with 5.03 runs per game) will probably get back on track after scoring just 3 runs against the Diamondbacks Thursday.

The Over is 15-10-3 (60%) when the Brewers are coming off a loss and 24-17-1 (58.5%) when the Dodgers are in the same situation.

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

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