OPINION: Breaking down the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Miami Hurricanes wins and losses this season

Everything always is rosy in the preseason. Heck, in August of Mario Cristobal’s first year who would have thought the team would fall to overmatched Middle Tennessee State and Duke? And last season the loss to an average Georgia Tech team on a bad end-of-game decision hurt. You can go through pretty much every year of the last two decades and point to games Miami could have and should have won based on talent … but didn’t.

Let’s flash back to 2023 for a moment. This was a team that was ranked  No. 22 in the nation last September, remember? At that point ESPN’s Football Power Index ranked Miami No. 15, with the only opponent ranked higher FSU at No. 5. We even wrote a column at that time mentioning fan expectations that the Canes might only lose one or two games .

In Cristobal’s first season there also were higher hopes than the results, with Miami going 2-10 against the spread .

Which brings us to this season.

Is it fair to expect something different?

Well, we think so … and if that’s the case maybe it will be a sign the program is truly turning the corner.

Expectations are ratcheted up in part thanks to transfer portal additions like QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez, combined with one of the easier Miami schedules in recent memory.

So will this team finally shake that lose-a-game-or-two-we-shouldn’t and emerge with double-digit wins? The bar is set at 9.5 wins per the over-under from DraftKings .

So now it’s time to look at our best case and worst case win/loss scenarios … going game by game using what we feel is realistic based on opponents and expectations:

GAME PREVIEWS: FLORIDA … FLORIDA A&M … BALL STATE … USF … VIRGINIA TECH … CAL … LOUISVILLE … FLORIDA STATE … DUKE … GEORGIA TECH … WAKE FOREST … SYRACUSE

FLORIDA

The Gators are projected to struggle to hit a .500 record this season, but it’s sort of the opposite scenario of what we see with the Canes – UF faces a brutally hard schedule that includes Miami, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, UCF, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. The reality is that the Gators have talent on the roster, and Miami is a three-point favorite on the road right now per DraftKings. So it could go either way.

PROJECTED RECORD: 1-0 best case or 0-1 worst case

FLORIDA A&M

No need to worry about this one, an easy win for the Canes against an FCS opponent overmatched talent-wise at every position.

PROJECTED RECORD: 2-0 best case; 1-1 worst case

BALL STATE

MAC team that finished 4-8 last season and isn’t supposed to be much better should cause Miami no issues.

PROJECTED RECORD: 3-0 best case or 2-1 worst case

USF

This is a step up from the prior two games but still a big step down from the talent level Miami will have faced in the opener and most of its ACC opponents. So if the Canes beat UF we’d have to feel really good about having an easy time with the Bulls. If not then perhaps South Florida can make it relatively close. But we just can’t imagine Miami losing this game unless the team literally quits like we saw several years ago against FIU. That’s so far from the realm of reality with this team under Cristobal we’re calling this one an almost sure-fired win given USF’s woeful defense.

PROJECTED RECORD: 4-0 best case or 3-1 worst case

VIRGINIA TECH

This is a Hokies team that we feel is very underrated on a national scale and could be a top 20 level opponent when the game rolls around (Virginia Tech has an easy first four games). It helps that the Canes have this one at home, and we’d probably put it at a 65 percent chance Miami wins. So a very good chance, but not a sure thing. Virginia Tech’s offense will challenge Miami with a talented dual-threat QB in Kyron Drones, and the top 3 receivers, top RB and five starting OL are back, plus this was a top 20 defense last year and has enough talent back there/added in the portal to again be solid. This is not going to be a walk in the park for Miami.

PROJECTED RECORD: 5-0 best case or 3-2 worst case

CAL

Traveling 3,000 miles across the country to face Cal will be its own challenge, and the Golden Bears struggled last year with a 6-7 record but has one of the ACC’s top returning RBs in Jadyn Ott (1,315 yards). The defense, though, ranked No. 102 in total D and lost some key pieces. We can’t envision Miami losing this one given the defensive issues and some question marks on offense including a WR corps that lost its top guy and a QB battle that will continue into the fall between Chandler Rogers and Fernando Mendoza. We would give Miami an 85 percent chance of winning, and that’s enough to put it almost in automatic territory.

PROJECTED RECORD: 6-0 best case or 4-2 worst case

LOUISVILLE

The Cardinals and Seminoles are the most talented teams on paper that Miami will face this season, and this game is at Louisville. The betting line has UL an oh-so-slight favorite, and it’s a team with eight starters back on a defense that was No. 1 in the nation in red zone D and also got big portal additions on offense that are expected to make a difference, including Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough and WRs Ja’Corey Brooks, and Caullin Lacy. It’s going to be tough for Miami to win both this and the game against FSU back-to-back, and with this one almost a 50/50 deal it could go either way.

PROJECTED RECORD: 7-0 best case or 4-3 worst case

FLORIDA STATE

FSU finished last year’s regular season undefeated, as everyone knows, including a 27-20 win over Miami. There could be chinks in Florida State’s armor this year, as the team loses a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and is relying on a lot of transfers to help keep the program playing at a high level. Most prognosticators pick FSU ending up in the ACC title game, but Miami has this one at home in what should be a raucous atmosphere. The early betting line is even. So this literally could go either way.

PROJECTED RECORD: 8-0 best case or 4-4 worst case

DUKE

The return of Manny Diaz to Miami won’t work out well for the Blue Devils, who have holes all over their roster and should be one of the ACC’s bottom dwellers. Chalk this one up as a pretty easy win.

PROJECTED RECORD: 9-0 best case or 5-4 worst case

GEORGIA TECH

Memories of last year’s loss will be fresh for Miami after not taking a knee, so we’d expect the Canes to play some inspired football. But make no mistake about it, the Yellow Jackets are a rising program that are not going to be a pushover on the road. Georgia Tech has one of the better offenses Miami will face, losing only three contributing pieces from the nation’s No. 34 total offense (ranked No. 12 in rush offense and 34th in total offense last year), and the defense should be better than last season’s awful one with some returning talent bolstered by transfers and a new defensive coaching staff. We’d give Miami a 70 percent chance of winning, so not really a sure thing.

PROJECTED RECORD: 10-0 best case or 5-5 worst case

WAKE FOREST

This will join Duke, FAMU and Ball State as one of Miami’s four easiest games. The Demon Deacons were 1-7 in ACC play last season and don’t show many signs of making any kind of noise this year.

PROJECTED RECORD: 11-0 best case or 6-5 worst case

SYRACUSE

Syracuse has an offense that will rely on Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord after the team really struggled last year to score points (No. 90 in the nation), and on defense only five significant returners are back and there are some portal pieces that can help (led by Texas A&M DE Fadil Diggs). But in the real word, even while this game is on the road, we’d be very surprised if the Canes lose – this is an Orange program that’s struggled under Dino Babers with a 24-37 record in the last five seasons. If Miami can’t be better than this team, then, well… fill in the blank.

PROJECTED RECORD: 12-0 best case or 7-5 worst case

So is there a path to an 11- or even … gasp … a 12-win season? Yes.

Miami also could go 7-5 in a potential realistic worst-case scenario as laid out above.

And for those that want to see undefeated … when you have close to 50/50 back-to-back games against Louisville and FSU. So do some math and the odds say the chances of Miami winning both are 25 percent. Most likely, odds-wise, there will be a loss out of those two games.

But hey, this is about projecting the realistic best- and worst-case scenarios. And the opponents’ weakness help alleviate a Miami roster that isn’t perfect, especially a Canes defense where there are depth question marks almost across the board other than perhaps defensive end.

This is a season that should have a lot of optimism entering it, but also recognize that a lot hinges on how an anticipated eight or more projected transfer starters pan out.

This season will be one that either shows a roster that is heading toward championship level, or one that is stuck in the status quo with Miami continuing to lose more games than expected.

Year 3 of the Cristobal era could be a turning point season.

Now the wait is on for the games to begin.

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