Sun Belt Football 2024 Predictions

Change is the biggest storyline for most college football conferences in the 2024 season, but that's not the case in the Sun Belt. The 14-team league will maintain divisions and the same membership as it had in '23. And although the Sun Belt never made a New Year's Six bowl or earned a playoff spot in the four-team format, the recent conference changes could put this league as the best in the Group of 5 ranks.

In the East, Appalachian State is the projected frontrunner after winning the division and losing 49-23 to Troy in the conference title game last season. The Mountaineers have a few question marks to address, but coach Shawn Clark's team has a sizable lead over the next tier of teams - James Madison, Marshall, and Coastal Carolina. Old Dominion had several close calls (11 of 13 games decided by one score) last year but still found its way to a bowl. Coach Ricky Rahne's team should be in the mix for a postseason spot once again, while Georgia Southern and Georgia State round out the predictions in the East.

After showcasing marked improvement under new coach GJ Kinne last year, Texas State starts '24 as the favorite in the West. The Bobcats are led by a high-powered offense with James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud at the controls, and the defense should take a step forward with a significant chunk of experience returning. Arkansas State, South Alabama, Louisiana, and Troy headline the next tier, with Southern Miss and ULM rounding out the West projections.

How does Athlon Sports project the Sun Belt for 2024? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 14 teams in Sun Belt for this fall:

Sun Belt Football 2024 Predictions

Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State over Texas State

East Division

1. Appalachian State

A 3-4 start that included close losses to North Carolina, Wyoming, Coastal Carolina, and Old Dominion certainly raised question marks about the direction of Appalachian State under coach Shawn Clark a year after a 6-6 record. However, the Mountaineers took a big step forward down the stretch by winning five in a row to clinch a spot in the Sun Belt title game. Clark's team capped the nine-win season with a victory over Miami (Ohio) in the Cure Bowl.

Four new starters must be found along the offensive line, but Appalachian State's offense is in good hands thanks to the emergence of quarterback Joey Aguilar (3,757 yards and 33 TDs) last season. Aguilar has one of the Sun Belt's top receiving corps at his disposal, and the backfield is still in good shape despite the loss of Nate Noel to the portal. Look for Kanye Roberts (696 yards) and Anderson Castle (283) to handle the workload at running back.

There's room to improve on defense after this unit allowed 5.74 yards a snap and 27 points a game last year. Also, Appalachian State ranked near the bottom of the Sun Belt in rush defense. But with nine starters back, improvement should be noticeable in '24. Linebacker Nate Johnson (7.5 sacks) is a rising star after a strong freshman season, while cornerback Ethan Johnson returns after earning second-team All-Sun Belt honors in '23.

Related: Sun Belt 2024 All-Conference Team

2. James Madison

The Dukes made a fast transition to the FBS level with a 19-5 mark over the last two seasons. However, change is in the air for '24. Coach Curt Cignetti departed for Indiana and took several key players with him to Bloomington. Bob Chesney was hired after a successful run at Holy Cross but inherits only four returning starters and plenty of question marks.

Despite those concerns, James Madison also has plenty of upside and potential going into '24. Washington transfer Dylan Morris should be a solid option at quarterback, while a deep backfield - Ayo Adeyi, Tyler Purdy, and George Pettaway - is in place for the ground game. Additionally, a strong foundation remains with three starters back up front, and the receiving corps quickly restocked thanks to the arrival of a couple of transfers this offseason.

Maintaining last year's level of play on defense (19.5 points a game allowed) won't be easy with eight of the top 10 tacklers from '23 departing. Chesney restocked this group with a handful of portal pickups, including linemen Terry Lockett (Syracuse) and Lloyd Summerall (Florida), and linebackers Jacob Dobbs (Holy Cross) and Raymond Scott (Fresno State). Cornerback Chauncey Logan (45 tackles and six pass breakups) is one of just two returning starters for new coordinator Lyle Hemphill.

Related: Grading College Football's New Coach Hires for 2024

3. Marshall

The pressure on coach Charles Huff has increased after a 6-7 record last season. Marshall went 9-4 in '22 and started last fall on a hot streak with four wins to open the year. However, the Thundering Herd collapsed, losing seven out of the team's final nine contests.

A sluggish offense (22.8 points a game) was a big reason why Marshall struggled last fall and Huff took steps to address this group by hiring Seth Doege from Purdue to call plays. Doege will certainly put his own stamp on this unit, but there are numerous question marks going into fall practice. With Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis opting to retire from football, former Tulsa signal-caller Braylon Braxton, Morehead State transfer Colin Parachek, and Cole Pennington are set to battle for the starting quarterback job. Standout running back Rasheen Ali is off to the NFL, with Ethan Payne and NC State transfer Jordan Houston likely to battle for the job. The Thundering Herd have talent at receiver with Bralon Brown, Tychaun Chapman, Elijah Metcalf, Christian Fitzpatrick, and DeMarcus Harris in the fold. However, four new starters are set to take over in the trenches.

Just three starters are back on defense for coordinator Jason Semore. Marshall led the Sun Belt in fewest points allowed (16.0 a game) in '22 but surrendered 28.7 a contest last fall. Several transfers could crack the two-deep right away, but end Michael Green and defensive backs Josh Moten and J.J. Roberts are the key returning pieces for Semore to build around in '24.

Related: Ranking the Sun Belt Head Coaches for 2024

4. Coastal Carolina

Tim Beck's first season at Coastal Carolina delivered solid wins over Appalachian State, Texas State, Marshall, Jacksonville State, and a bowl victory against San Jose State en route to an 8-5 mark.

After an injury to Grayson McCall, Ethan Vasko showed promise in a late-season stint as the team's starting quarterback. The Kansas transfer will be pushed by former Michigan State signal-caller Noah Kim, but there's a solid supporting cast for whichever quarterback sees the bulk of the snaps. Running back Braydon Bennett (407 yards) and receivers Jameson Tucker and UNLV transfer Senika McKie provide playmakers on the outside. Three starters - including standout left tackle Nick Del Grande - are back to man the trenches.

The Chanticleers held teams to 23.8 points a contest last year, but this unit struggled to stop the run and failed to generate consistent pressure (19 sacks) on opposing quarterbacks. Linebacker Shane Bruce is a stalwart on the second level, while cornerback Matthew McDoom and safety Tobias Fletcher lead a secondary that finished '23 fourth in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency defense.

Related: College Football 2024 All-America Team

5. Old Dominion

The 2023 season provided several anxiety-inducing games for Old Dominion, as 11 of its 13 contests were decided by one score. The Monarchs somehow found a way to nearly defeat Wake Forest (27-24), almost lost to Texas A&M-Commerce (10-9), and beat eventual Sun Belt East champ Appalachian State (28-21).

The search for more consistency in '24 starts on offense for coach Ricky Rahne. The Monarchs return quarterback Grant Wilson after a solid debut (2,149 yards and 17 TDs and 289 rushing yards) but more production is needed after this unit averaged only 5.4 yards a snap. Former Rutgers running back Aaron Young is an impact pickup out of the portal, while Kelby Williams and Isiah Page return as the top two targets after Javon Harvey and Reymello Murphy transferred. The line allowed 62 sacks last season and remains a major concern.

Linebacker Jason Henderson - an Athlon Sports All-American for 2024 - returns to headline a group that held Sun Belt teams to 25.6 points a contest last year. Henderson missed spring practice recovering from knee surgery but is on track to return sometime in the fall. The line was solid against the run last year and is anchored by Denzel Lowry (five tackles for a loss last season). A revamped secondary is a question mark.

Related: College Football Top 25 Rankings for 2024

6. Georgia Southern

Fast starts and slow finishes have headlined coach Clay Helton's first two seasons in charge. Georgia Southern used an upset over Nebraska to start 5-3 in '22 but slumped to 1-4 over the final five games. The same scenario played out last fall, as the Eagles started 6-2 only to lose their last five contests.

Returning to a bowl in '24 won't be easy. New play-caller Ryan Aplin takes over a unit that averaged 30.2 points a game last year but loses quarterback Davis Brin, receiver Khaleb Hood, and three starters from the line. A transfer - either JC French (Memphis) or Dexter Williams II (Indiana) - is likely to replace Brin. If Aplin can quickly settle the QB battle and restock the line, the skill talent is in place for this offense to pick up where it left off in '23. Derwin Burgess Jr., Dalen Cobb, and Oklahoma transfer LV Bunkley-Shelton form a standout trio at receiver, and running back Jalen White returns after rushing for 889 yards last fall. Cutting down on the lost turnovers (31 last season) is a must.

Better defensive play would help Georgia Southern offset potential offensive regression in '23. Coordinator Brandon Bailey oversaw a group that surrendered 30.5 points a contest last fall but eight starters are back which could translate into improvement. Linebacker Marques Watson-Trent (122 tackles) is the star of this group, while Isaac Walker and Justin Rhodes are back to lead the way in the trenches.

7. Georgia State

New coach Dell McGee is a strong hire, but a few obstacles - including a late arrival to take over the program after former coach Shawn Elliott departed in mid-February - are working against him going into his debut year with the Panthers.

In addition to the short window to prep and develop this team for '24, McGee needs to replace the standout trio of quarterback Darren Grainger, running back Marcus Carroll, and receiver Robert Lewis from an offense that averaged 27.2 points a game last year. A handful of transfers will help on both sides of the ball, including on offense where quarterbacks Zach Gibson (Georgia Tech) and Christian Veilleux (Pitt) are the favorites to replace Grainger. Running back Freddie Brock looks like a breakout star after a huge performance in the bowl win over Utah State. However, only one starter is back up front.

New defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer is tasked with improving a unit that allowed 30.1 points a game, ranked last in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency defense, and surrendered 6.3 yards a snap in '23. Standout cornerback Gavin Pringle and safety Jeremiah Johnson headline a group returning six starters, but linebacker Jontrey Hunter, end Javon Denis, and cornerback Bryquice Brown will be missed.

Related: College Football Top 25 Rankings for 2024

West Division

1. Texas State

Texas State was one of the nation's most improved teams under first-year coach GJ Kinne in 2023. The Bobcats improved their win total by four games (4-8 to 8-5), earned the first bowl bid since the program moved to the FBS level in '12, and scored an upset over Baylor (42-31) in the season opener.

Expectations will be even higher for Kinne and the Bobcats in '24. Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to San Marcos after averaging 302.5 total yards a game last year at James Madison. McCloud and running back Ismail Mahdi (166.8 all-purpose yards a game last season) form a dynamic backfield and the foundation for an offense that paced the Sun Belt in scoring in '23. Joey Hobert and Kole Wilson provide McCloud with two All-Sun Belt candidates at receiver, and the line should be among the best in the conference.

Although the offense showed massive improvement in Kinne's first year, the defense was still among the worst in the Sun Belt. New coordinator Dexter McCoil Sr. doesn't lack for experience to work with thanks to eight returning starters. Also, the Bobcats added help via the portal, including linemen Tunmise Adeleye (Michigan State) and Steven Parker (UIW) and linebacker James Neal (UTEP) among 13 incoming transfers.

Related: Sun Belt 2024 All-Conference Team

2. Arkansas State

After losing to Oklahoma and Memphis by a combined score of 110-3 in the first two weeks of the 2023 season, the outlook for coach Butch Jones' tenure seemed bleak. However, the Red Wolves rebounded to win six games and return to the postseason for the first time since '19.

Rising star quarterback Jaylen Raynor (265.7 total yards a game in '23) returns to pilot an offense that averaged 30.9 points in Sun Belt games last year. The Red Wolves have one of the top receiving corps in the Sun Belt with Courtney Jackson and Corey Rucker back on the outside. The ground game is also set with Zak Wallace and Ja'Quez Cross at running back. Four starters are back up front, but standout center Jacob Bayer suffered a torn ACL in the spring and is out indefinitely.

With Raynor at the controls, scoring points shouldn't be a problem for Arkansas State. However, unless the defense shows improvement, this program will fall short of contention in the Sun Belt West Division. The Red Wolves allowed 30.4 points a game, ranked last in the conference against the run, and allowed 6.2 yards a snap. The return of five starters, along with a couple of portal additions, should provide Jones with some optimism this unit can be better in '24.

Related: Ranking the Sun Belt Head Coaches for 2024

3. Louisiana

After a pair of back-to-back 6-7 seasons, the '24 campaign is a crucial one for coach Michael Desormeaux to show Louisiana is back on track. Although matching the success former coach Billy Napier had was unlikely, the Ragin' Cajuns have slipped over the last two years and are just 7-9 in Sun Belt play in that span.

Quarterback Ben Wooldridge returns from injury to compete with Chandler Fields and junior college transfer Samari Collier for the starting job. The strength of the Louisiana offense should be a backfield that returns Dre'lyn Washington and Zylan Perry and four starters along the line. Five of the top seven statistical receiving options from '23 are also back.

New defensive coordinator Jim Salgado inherits a group that surrendered 5.2 yards a snap but also gave up 28.6 points a contest last year. This unit brings back seven starters, including standout linebackers KC Ossai and Cameron Whitfield (nine tackles for a loss). The Ragin' Cajuns must do a better job against the run after giving up nearly 170 rushing yards in Sun Belt play last year.

Related: College Football 2024 All-America Team

4. South Alabama

South Alabama had a surprise head-coaching vacancy to fill after Kane Wommack departed Mobile to work as Alabama's defensive coordinator in mid-January. The Jaguars didn't look far for Wommack's replacement, as offensive coordinator (and former Houston head coach) Major Applewhite was promoted to the top spot.

With South Alabama bringing back only three starters from one of the Sun Belt's top defenses, Applewhite's offense needs to carry this team in the early part of '24. New quarterback Gio Lopez is a rising star, and there's no shortage of talent at receiver with Devin Voisin, Javon Ivory, and Jamaal Pritchett. La'Damian Webb will be missed at running back, but Braylon McReynolds and Kentrel Bullock should be an effective duo. The line will require some retooling with just two starters returning.

New coordinator Will Windham has holes to fill at every level, but safety Jaden Voisin and lineman Wy'Kevious Thomas are two standout building blocks for '24 The Jaguars limited opponents to 21 points a game last year, so Windham and a revamped defense will have high expectations amidst a significant rebuilding effort.

Related: Grading College Football's New Coach Hires for 2024

5. Troy

There's not much separation in my projections between Arkansas State, Louisiana, South Alabama, and Troy for the Sun Belt West after Texas State at No. 1. The Trojans are the two-time defending conference champs and went 14-2 in league play since '22. However, a significant overhaul is in store for this fall with just four returning starters and a new staff after Jon Sumrall left to take the top spot at Tulane.

New coach Gerad Parker arrives in Troy after working last season as Notre Dame's offensive coordinator and has a previous stint (0-6 in 2016) as an interim coach at Purdue on his resume. Parker's background on offense will come in handy this year, as the Trojans will be breaking in a new quarterback (likely Goose Crowder). The offense also lost three starters up front, leading rusher Kimani Vidal, and two out of the top three receivers from '23. The status of receiver Chris Lewis (10 TD catches last year) is also uncertain.

The rebuilding effort for Parker extends to the defense. A unit that held teams to 17.1 points a game last year brings back only one starter and lost nine of its top 10 tacklers. Similar to the offense, Troy still has talent waiting in the wings, including linemen Luis Medina and linebacker Jordan Springer. How fast can new coordinators Nathan Burton and Dontae Wright find the right pieces to ensure a quick reload?

Related: Grading College Football's New Coach Hires for 2024

6. Southern Miss

The 2024 season is a crucial one for Southern Miss coach Will Hall. The Golden Eagles are just 13-24 since '21 and are coming off their second losing record in three seasons under Hall's direction.

An offense that averaged only 23.2 points a game last season must replace standout running back Frank Gore and returns just two starters. Florida State transfer Tate Rodemaker should be the answer under center, and Tiaquelin Mims (39 catches) will assume a greater role in the passing game after Jakarius Caston and Latreal Jones finished their eligibility. A revamped offensive line is a concern for new coordinator Chip Long, but the ground game could still be in good hands with Rodrigues Clark (429 yards last year).

Southern Miss ranked last in the Sun Belt in points allowed (35.8) and yards per play (6.7) last season. New coordinator Clay Bignell has a tall task ahead in generating massive improvement, but the cupboard isn't bare in '24. Five starters return, including edge rusher Jalil Clemons, lineman Jalen Williams, and defensive back Dylan Lawrence. Also, expect a handful of incoming transfers to boost the overall talent and depth right away this fall.

Related: Sun Belt 2024 All-Conference Team

7. ULM

ULM is one of the hardest jobs in college football. The program has just one winning season and bowl trip (2012) since moving to the FBS level in 1994. Also, resources are an issue thanks to a budget that ranks near the bottom of the Sun Belt.

Needless to say, this job is a major challenge for new coach Bryant Vincent. He previously went 7-6 as UAB's interim coach in 2022 and has guided several solid offenses in his career as a play-caller. Vincent's ability to put together a quality offense in '24 with the Warhawks will be tested. Running back Hunter Smith (507 yards) is one of the few proven playmakers, and guard Elijah Fisher is the lone returning starter on this side of the ball. A handful of portal additions will be counted on for a major impact.

The outlook is a little better for Vincent's defense. ULM gave up 38.8 points a contest and 6.01 yards a snap in Sun Belt play last year but returns five starters. Included in that mix is linebacker Carl Glass, defensive lineman Jaylan Ware, and cornerback Car'lin Vigers - all preseason All-Sun Belt selections by Athlon Sports . Incoming JUCO recruit Jaden Hamlin should make a big-time impact right away in the trenches.

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter , Instagram , and Facebook .

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