Hall Of Fame Probability After The 2023-24 NBA Season

As the 2023-24 NBA season is over, the debate around potential Hall of Fame inductees intensifies. This season has seen stellar performances from current superstars and seasoned veterans alike, further solidifying their cases for basketball immortality. Players like LeBron James , Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry , and Giannis Antetokounmpo continue to build their legacies with remarkable achievements and consistent excellence. This analysis delves into the Hall of Fame probabilities for various players, evaluating their career accomplishments, accolades, and impact on the game.

100% Probability

LeBron James (100%)

LeBron James is widely regarded as one of the greatest basketball players of all time while some might argue he is the greatest ever. His career achievements include four NBA championships, four MVP awards, and two Olympic gold medals with a chance to win three following the 2024 Paris Olympics. LeBron has been selected to the All-NBA First Team a record 13 times and has consistently demonstrated his ability to dominate the game both offensively and defensively. With career averages of 27.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game, LeBron's versatility and basketball IQ are unparalleled.

LeBron's impact extends beyond the basketball court, as he has been a vocal leader and advocate for social justice which will do nothing but boost his greatness as an athlete and sports figure. His longevity and ability to perform at an elite level into his late 30s further solidify his Hall of Fame case because no player has been as great for as long as The King.

Kevin Durant (100%)

Kevin Durant's scoring prowess is unmatched, making him one of the most prolific scorers in NBA history. He has won two NBA championships, both with the Golden State Warriors and has been named Finals MVP twice. Durant has also secured four scoring titles and was the league MVP in 2014. His ability to score from anywhere on the court, combined with his seven-foot frame, makes him a unique and nearly unstoppable offensive force.

Durant's impact on the game is not limited to his scoring. He has become an efficient defender and a valuable playmaker, enhancing his all-around game. Injuries have hampered him at times, but his resilience and ability to return to peak form demonstrate his determination and greatness. Durant's contributions to Team USA, where he has won three Olympic gold medals, further bolster his Hall of Fame resume but a fourth gold medal will place him as the greatest player to ever suit up for the Americans in international competition.

Stephen Curry (100%)

Stephen Curry revolutionized the game of basketball with his unparalleled shooting ability. He is a two-time MVP, including the first-ever unanimous MVP in 2016, and has led the Golden State Warriors to four NBA championships while holding a Finals MVP trophy. Curry holds numerous three-point shooting records, including the most three-pointers made in a single season. His ability to shoot from long range has changed how the game is played, making the three-point shot a central part of modern basketball.

Curry's influence extends beyond his shooting. He is a skilled ball-handler and playmaker, often creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. His leadership and character have also been vital to the Warriors' success and a humble superstar who is slightly undersized makes him one of the most beloved players ever.

Chris Paul (100%)

Chris Paul , known as the "Point God," is one of the greatest point guards in NBA history. His exceptional court vision, leadership, and ability to control the tempo of the game are unmatched. Paul has been named to the All-NBA First Team four times and has led the league in assists five times and steals six times. His career averages of 17.5 points, 9.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game highlight his all-around excellence.

Despite not winning an NBA championship, Paul's impact on every team he has played for is undeniable. He has revitalized franchises like the New Orleans Hornets, Los Angeles Clippers, and Phoenix Suns, leading them to deep playoff runs. Paul's influence extends off the court as well, where he has been a significant figure in the NBA Players Association, and he is one of the best stars of his generation.

90%+ Probability

James Harden (99.99%)

James Harden is known for his exceptional scoring ability and innovative offensive skills. He has won three scoring titles and was named the NBA MVP in 2018. Harden's step-back three-pointer and ability to draw fouls have made him one of the most unguardable players in the league. His career averages of 24.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game demonstrate his all-around offensive prowess.

Harden's versatility as both a scorer and a playmaker has been crucial for his teams, whether with the Houston Rockets, Brooklyn Nets, or Philadelphia 76ers. Despite criticism of his defense early in his career, Harden has more than made up for it with 10 All-Star selections, seven All-NBA selections, and two assist titles.

Russell Westbrook (99.93%)

Russell Westbrook's athleticism and relentless playing style have made him a standout player in the NBA. He is the only player in NBA history to average a triple-double for multiple seasons, achieving this feat four times. Westbrook has also won the league MVP in 2017 and has been named to the All-NBA First Team twice. His career averages of 21.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game highlight his dynamic impact on the game.

Westbrook's intensity and competitiveness have often driven his teams to success. His ability to dominate games with his scoring, passing, and rebounding sets him apart from other point guards. Despite criticism regarding his shooting efficiency and turnovers, Westbrook's overall contributions and record-breaking performances make him a likely Hall of Fame inductee.

Anthony Davis (99.60%)

Anthony Davis is renowned for his defensive prowess and versatile offensive skills. He is a nine-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA First Team four times. Davis won an NBA championship with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020, showcasing his ability to perform at the highest level. His career averages of 24.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game illustrate his dominance on both ends of the floor.

Davis's shot-blocking and defensive versatility make him one of the best defenders in the league. He can guard multiple positions and is a force in the paint. Offensively, his ability to score inside and shoot from mid-range makes him a difficult matchup for opponents, and going to Los Angeles might have solidified his case as a Hall of Famer.

Damian Lillard (98.71%)

Damian Lillard's clutch performances and scoring ability have made him one of the most exciting players to watch. He has been named to the All-NBA Team seven times and has won the NBA's Teammate of the Year award. Lillard's career averages of 25.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game highlight his scoring and playmaking abilities. He is known for his deep three-point shooting and ability to perform under pressure, earning him the nickname "Dame Time."

Lillard's loyalty to the Portland Trail Blazers and his impact on the franchise are significant. He has led the Blazers to multiple playoff appearances, including a trip to the Western Conference Finals in 2019, and even if he is now a member of the Milwaukee Bucks, the point guard’s legacy is secure.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (98.68%)

Giannis Antetokounmpo , known as the "Greek Freak," has become one of the most dominant players in the NBA. He has won two MVP awards and led the Milwaukee Bucks to an NBA championship in 2021, where he was named Finals MVP following a record-breaking 50-point closeout performance. Giannis's unique combination of size, athleticism, and skill allows him to impact the game on both ends of the floor. His career averages of 23.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game demonstrate his all-around abilities.

Giannis's defensive prowess is also noteworthy, as he has been named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year. His ability to guard multiple positions and protect the rim makes him a defensive anchor for the Bucks. In terms of pure impact and physical dominance, Giannis is a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Nikola Jokic (98.04%)

Nikola Jokic's unique skill set as a center has revolutionized the position. He has won three MVP awards and led the Denver Nuggets to an NBA title in the 2022-23 season while capturing the Finals MVP. The Serbian’s ability to score, rebound, and pass at an elite level makes him one of the most versatile players in the league. His career averages of 20.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game showcase his all-around game and impact on the floor.

Jokic’s court vision and passing ability are particularly impressive for a center, often making him the primary playmaker for the Nuggets. His unselfish play and basketball IQ have transformed Denver into a perennial contender. Despite lacking traditional athleticism, Jokic's skill, craftiness, and understanding of the game set him apart from almost every other center in history.

Paul George (97.86%)

Paul George is known for his two-way excellence, being an elite scorer and a tenacious defender. He has been named to the All-NBA Team six times and the NBA All-Defensive Team four times. George's career averages of 20.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game illustrate his scoring ability and versatility. He has been instrumental in leading teams like the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Clippers to deep playoff runs.

George's defensive prowess allows him to guard multiple positions, making him a valuable asset on any team. Offensively, his ability to score from all three levels—inside, mid-range, and beyond the arc—makes him a difficult matchup for defenders. Despite injuries impacting his career at times and a lack of a Finals appearance, George's resilience and ability to bounce back have kept him among the top players in the league for over a decade, and winning a title with the 76ers could boost his legacy tremendously.

Kyrie Irving (93.45%)

Kyrie Irving's ball-handling skills and scoring ability have made him one of the most electrifying players in the NBA. He hit the game-winning shot in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals, helping the Cleveland Cavaliers secure their first championship. Irving's career averages of 23.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game reflect his offensive prowess. He has been named to the All-NBA Third Team twice and is an eight-time NBA All-Star.

Irving's creativity with the ball and ability to finish at the rim are unmatched. His clutch performances and ability to score in isolation situations make him a dangerous offensive weapon. As arguably the greatest ball-handler ever, Irving making the 2024 NBA Finals with the Dallas Mavericks almost guarantees him a place in the Hall of Fame.

Kawhi Leonard (91.31%)

Kawhi Leonard is renowned for his defensive abilities and clutch performances in the playoffs. He is a two-time NBA champion and has won Finals MVP twice, once with the San Antonio Spurs and once with the Toronto Raptors. Leonard's career averages of 20.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game highlight his scoring and rebounding abilities. His defensive accolades include two NBA Defensive Player of the Year awards and seven All-Defensive Team selections.

Leonard's ability to perform in high-pressure situations has earned him a reputation as one of the best two-way players in the league. His quiet demeanor and focus on the game have made him a respected leader. Injuries have limited his playing time in recent seasons, but when healthy, Leonard is one of the most dominant players in the NBA. His impact on the game, especially in the playoffs, makes him a likely Hall of Famer.

80+% Probability

Kyle Lowry (85.74%)

Kyle Lowry's leadership and tenacity have been crucial to his success in the NBA. He played a pivotal role in leading the Toronto Raptors to their first NBA championship in 2019. Lowry's career averages of 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game highlight his contributions as a playmaker and scorer. He has been named to the All-NBA Third Team once and is a six-time NBA All-Star.

Lowry's defensive tenacity and ability to draw charges have made him a standout defender. His leadership and veteran presence have been invaluable to his teams, particularly during the Raptors' championship run. The veteran is searching for his second NBA championship and even if he doesn’t get it, he still has at least an 80% chance of making the Hall of Fame.

60%-70% Probability

Draymond Green (76.82%)

Draymond Green is known for his defensive versatility and leadership on the court. He has won four NBA championships with the Golden State Warriors and has been named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2016-17. Green's career averages of 8.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game may not be eye-popping, but his impact on the game goes beyond statistics. His ability to guard multiple positions and serve as a playmaker has been crucial to the Warriors' success.

Green's leadership and vocal presence on the court make him a key figure in the Warriors' dynasty. His ability to facilitate the offense and anchor the defense sets him apart from traditional forwards and without a doubt, the Warriors do not have a dynasty without Green acting as the physical enforcer and vocal leader.

Kevin Love (73.47%)

Kevin Love's career has been marked by his exceptional rebounding and scoring ability. He is a five-time NBA All-Star and won an NBA championship with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016. Love's career averages of 16.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game highlight his ability to score and control the boards. He has also been named to the All-NBA Second Team twice and even won Most Improved Player in 2010-11.

Love's versatility as a stretch-four, with the ability to shoot from long range and score in the post, has made him a valuable asset to his teams. His contributions during the Cavaliers' championship run, particularly his defense of Stephen Curry in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals, are notable.

Jimmy Butler (72.98%)

Jimmy Butler's journey from a late first-round pick to an NBA superstar is a testament to his work ethic and determination. He is a six-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Team five times. Butler's career averages of 18.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game reflect his scoring, rebounding, and playmaking abilities. Known for his defensive tenacity, Butler has also been named to the NBA All-Defensive Team five times.

Butler's leadership and clutch performances have been crucial in leading the Miami Heat to deep playoff runs, including appearances in the 2020 and 2023 NBA Finals. His ability to elevate his game in the postseason and his defensive prowess make him one of the best two-way players of his generation.

Klay Thompson (70.21%)

Klay Thompson is widely regarded as one of the best shooters in NBA history and arguably the best behind Stephen Curry. He has won four NBA championships with the Golden State Warriors and has been named to the All-NBA Third Team twice. Thompson's career averages of 19.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game reflect his scoring ability. He holds the record for the most points in a single quarter (37) and the most three-pointers made in a single game (14).

Thompson's defensive abilities are often overlooked, but he has been a key defender for the Warriors, capable of guarding multiple positions. His ability to perform in high-pressure situations and his consistency as a shooter makes him one of the most valuable players in the league. Despite missing two full seasons due to injuries, Thompson's impact on the game and his contributions to one of the greatest teams in NBA history solidify his Hall of Fame case.

Joel Embiid (66.22%)

Joel Embiid's dominance as a center has made him one of the most feared players in the NBA. He is a seven-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Team five times. Embiid's career averages of 27.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game highlight his scoring and defensive abilities. His ability to score both inside and from the perimeter makes him a versatile offensive threat.

Embiid's defensive presence is also significant, as he is a formidable shot-blocker and rim protector. Despite injury concerns throughout his career, Embiid's impact on the game and his dominance as a center make him a strong Hall of Fame candidate because two scoring titles and an MVP award should be enough to get him in regardless of lack of playoff success.

40%+ Probability

DeMar DeRozan (46.35%)

DeMar DeRozan is known for his scoring ability and mid-range game. He is a six-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Team three times. DeRozan's career averages of 21.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game highlight his scoring and playmaking abilities. He has been a consistent scorer throughout his career, known for his ability to create his own shot and score in isolation situations.

DeRozan's leadership and veteran presence have been valuable to his teams, particularly the Toronto Raptors and the Chicago Bulls. His ability to adapt and improve his game over the years, including developing his playmaking skills, has made him a more well-rounded player and one of the most consistent scorers of his generation.

Related: Shaquille O'Neal Shares 10 Best NBA Players Not In The Basketball Hall Of Fame

Luka Doncic (41.20%)

Luka Doncic , at his current rate, will likely come close to a 100% HOF probability by the time his career is over. The Slovenian is a five-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA First Team five times in six years. The Slovenian’s career averages of 28.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game highlight his all-around game and ability to impact the game in multiple ways.

Doncic’s impact on the Dallas Mavericks has been profound, leading them to four playoff appearances in his first six seasons (including the Finals in 2023) and becoming the face of the franchise. His ability to perform in clutch situations and his leadership on the court has earned him comparisons to some of the greatest players in NBA history. Despite his young age (25), Doncic’s achievements and potential make him a strong future Hall of Fame candidate.

30%+ Probability

Jayson Tatum (32.50%)

Jayson Tatum is an NBA champion and a couple more seasons of superstar play could see him enter the higher probability tiers. Tatum's scoring ability and versatility have made him one of the top young players in the NBA at 26 years old. He is a five-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Team four times. Tatum's career averages of 23.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game highlight his scoring and rebounding abilities.

Tatum's leadership and performances in the playoffs have been impressive, particularly his role in leading the Boston Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals five times before winning the championship in 2023-24. With continued development and success, Tatum has the potential to build a strong Hall of Fame case and he likely will.

John Wall (32.39%)

John Wall's speed and playmaking ability once made him one of the most exciting point guards in the NBA before injuries derailed his career. He is a five-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Third Team once. Wall's career averages of 18.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game highlight his scoring and playmaking abilities.

Wall's career has been impacted by injuries, but his contributions to the Washington Wizards, including leading them to four playoff appearances, cannot be overlooked. His defensive abilities and leadership on the court have also been notable because he made the All-Defensive Second Team in 2014-15. As one of the fastest players ever, Wall has a slight chance to be in the Hall of Fame.

20%+ Probability

Rudy Gobert (25.96%)

Rudy Gobert's defensive dominance has made him one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. He is a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year and has been named to the All-NBA Defensive Team seven times. Gobert's career averages of 12.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game highlight his defensive and rebounding abilities. His ability to alter shots and protect the rim has been a key part of his game.

Gobert's impact on the Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves's defense has been significant, leading them to eight playoff appearances and consistently ranking among the top defenses in the league. His ability to anchor the defense and his presence in the paint make him one of the most valuable defensive players in the league regardless of the criticism that always seems to come his way.

Al Horford (23.78%)

Al Horford's case for the Hall of Fame greatly strengthened following his NBA championship victory with the Boston Celtics. He is a five-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Third Team once. Horford's career averages of 13.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game highlight his scoring, rebounding, and playmaking abilities.

Horford's leadership and veteran presence have been crucial in leading his teams to 15 playoff success, particularly with the Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics. His ability to contribute in multiple areas of the game and his consistency throughout his career make him a valuable asset.

Karl-Anthony Towns (22.64%)

Karl-Anthony Towns' offensive skills and versatility have made him one of the most unique big men in NBA history. He is a four-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Team twice. Towns' career averages of 22.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game on 39.8% from three.

Towns' impact on the Minnesota Timberwolves has been significant, helping the team to four playoff appearances. His ability to stretch the floor and his defensive potential make him a valuable player and he might be the greatest shooting big man ever in terms of raw statistics which is why he has over 20% chance to be in the Hall of Fame as of right now.

5%-10%+ Probability

Donovan Mitchell (12.85%)

Donovan Mitchell's scoring ability and athleticism have made him one of the most exciting young players in the NBA. He is a five-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Second Team once. Mitchell's career averages of 24.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game highlight his scoring and playmaking abilities.

Mitchell's impact on the Utah Jazz and now the Cleveland Cavaliers has been significant, leading his teams to seven playoff appearances. His leadership and ability to perform in high-pressure situations have earned him respect around the league. With continued success and development, Mitchell has the potential to build a strong Hall of Fame case because he is only 27 years old.

Derrick Rose (10.52%)

Derrick Rose's career has been marked by both incredible highs and devastating injuries. He became the youngest MVP in NBA history in 2011, showcasing his explosive athleticism and scoring ability when he averaged 25.0 points and 7.7 assists per game on 44.5% from the field. Of course, his elite prime was cut short with a devastating ACL injury.

Rose's perseverance and ability to reinvent his game have been inspiring. His journey from MVP to battling through injuries and continuing to play at a high level has earned him admiration from fans and players alike. While injuries have limited his career achievements, Rose's impact on the game has to be taken into consideration in his Hall of Fame case.

Trae Young (9.41%)

Trae Young's scoring and playmaking abilities have quickly made him one of the most exciting young players in the NBA. He is a three-time NBA All-Star and has been named to the All-NBA Third Team once. Young's career averages of 25.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game highlight his scoring and playmaking abilities.

Young's impact on the Atlanta Hawks has been significant, leading them to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021 but has not found playoff success since then. Regardless, his raw offensive ability has earned him comparisons to some of the best point guards in NBA history.

Isaiah Thomas (7.05%)

Isaiah Thomas' career has been marked by his scoring ability and resilience. He became an NBA All-Star twice and was named to the All-NBA Second Team once while finishing fifth in the 2017 MVP race. Thomas' career averages of 17.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game reflect his contributions as a scorer and playmaker.

Despite being one of the shortest players in the league, Thomas' heart and determination have made him a standout player. Thomas' remarkable 2016-17 season with the Boston Celtics, where he averaged 28.9 points per game and led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals, is a testament to his talent.

Related: 30 Best Basketball Players At The 2024 Olympics In Paris

Source: Basketball-Reference

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