Ranking College Football's National Championship Contenders into Tiers for the 2024 Season

When the 2024 college football season kicks off on Aug. 24 for Week 0, 134 teams will have dreams of winning the national title or making a trip to the expanded 12-team CFB Playoff. Although every program wants a shot at the national championship, the amount of teams that can actually hoist the trophy in January is significantly smaller - likely around 15-20 programs for '24.

The new 12-team playoff will provide more access to teams in every conference and perhaps a few upsets along the way. However, the teams in the national championship could look similar to what transpired in the four-team era. With better depth and overall talent, teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama can withstand the longer season and any potential injuries.

How many teams are actual contenders for the national championship in '24? And what tiers should those contenders be placed in? Georgia and Ohio State are the preseason favorites to win it all. But how far is the gap to Oregon, Texas, or Alabama? Athlon Sports breaks down the teams that can win it at all and separates those programs into tiers for the '24 season.

2024 Conference Predictions

Power 4: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | SEC

Group of 5: American | Conference USA | MAC | Mountain West | Sun Belt

Ranking All 134 College Football Teams for 2024 | Playoff Predictions

Ranking College Football's National Championship Contenders into Tiers for the 2024 Season

Tier 1

Tier 1 Teams: Georgia and Ohio State

The new 12-team CFB Playoff adds more variables and speed bumps in the path to a national championship. Despite the longer calendar and expanded conferences, the Bulldogs and Buckeyes are the two teams best equipped to win it all in '24.

Georgia returns 15 starters from last year's team that finished 13-1 and just missed the CFB Playoff after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship. Quarterback Carson Beck and a standout line lead the way offensively, while coach Kirby Smart's defense will again rank among the best in college football. Although the Bulldogs fell short of a title last season, this team has won two out of the last three national championships. It's hard to find a glaring flaw with Georgia in '24.

After watching Michigan celebrate another win in the rivalry and claim the national title last season, Ohio State coach Ryan Day took steps to get back to the top of the Big Ten. Transfers quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State), running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), and safety Caleb Downs (Alabama) are among the most impactful portal additions for '24. Day also upgraded his coaching staff with the arrival of former UCLA head coach Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator. With a defense entrenched as one of the nation's best and plenty of firepower offensively, Day's additions from the portal and an improved staff are likely enough to put Ohio State back to the top of the Big Ten.

Tier 2

Tier 2 Contenders: Texas, Oregon, Alabama, and Ole Miss

Texas is equipped for its maiden journey through the SEC thanks to the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers and one of the nation's top offensive lines. Also, coach Steve Sarkisian has an emerging star at running back in CJ Baxter, and a receiving corps that was decimated by losses was restocked through the portal. Defense is Sarkisian's biggest concern. Linemen T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II will be missed, the pass rush could use a little boost from UTSA transfer Trey Moore, and the secondary needs to cut down on the big plays allowed (12 of 40-plus yards).

Oregon's transition to its new conference home in the Big Ten should be seamless. Coach Dan Lanning has this program on the rise and upped the talent on the roster through recruiting and via the portal over the last two years. The offense shouldn't miss a beat with Dillon Gabriel replacing Bo Nix at quarterback, and this unit doesn't lack for weapons to deploy at running back or receiver. Lanning's additions through the portal will restock a defense returning only four starters. A handful of those additions - linemen Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell and defensive backs Jabbar Muhammad, Kobe Savage, and Kam Alexander - are among the top transfer arrivals in the Big Ten.

Alabama would normally place higher on this list, but with Nick Saban's retirement, this program enters '24 with a few more questions than in previous years. While there are concerns, new coach Kalen DeBoer still has all of the pieces in place to make a run at the SEC title game. Quarterback Jalen Milroe returns after a dynamic debut in '23 and should be even better with an offseason to learn under DeBoer (one of the nation's top offensive-minded coaches). The Crimson Tide have a pair of breakout candidates at running back in Justice Haynes and Jam Miller, while the offensive line is poised to take a step forward with three starters back and the arrival of center Parker Brailsford (Washington transfer). Alabama's defense is the greater area of concern for DeBoer. This unit will rely on a handful of transfers to restock a thin secondary, and a new standout edge rusher (or two) must be found to replace Dallas Turner.

Ole Miss isn't a traditional national title contender, but coach Lane Kiffin has assembled a squad capable of a deep run in the CFB Playoff. The Rebels won the most games (11) in program history and addressed a couple of key needs through the portal. An offense that averaged 35.1 points a game last season returns quarterback Jaxson Dart and a loaded receiving corps (Tre Harris, Juice Wells, and tight end Caden Prieskorn). Kiffin's team has thrived at lighting up the scoreboard, but the defense has lagged in recent years. The arrival of coordinator Pete Golding from Alabama was a step in the right direction last year, and the Rebels took another move forward this offseason by landing several impact transfers, including linemen Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen and linebacker Chris Paul.

Tier 3

Tier 4 Contenders: Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU, and Florida State

The six teams considered in this tier need a lot to break their way in order to win a title in 2024.

Reigning national champion Michigan faces a major overhaul with coach Jim Harbaugh and several starters off to the NFL. The Wolverines will be a team in transition early in the '24 campaign, but the defense will remain dominant behind linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, and cornerback Will Johnson returns to lead the secondary. However, new coach Sherrone Moore must break in five new starters along the offensive line and needs to sort out the quarterback battle early with a non-conference game against Texas looming in Week 2.

Penn State has been on the cusp of a CFB Playoff spot under coach James Franklin, but the expanded 12-team field should help this team finally get over the hump in '24. Few questions surround a defense led by new coordinator Tom Allen after it held teams to 13.5 points a game last season. If the Nittany Lions are going to make the jump from double-digit wins to national championship, the offense needs to take a massive step forward under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. The former Kansas play-caller inherits a dynamic backfield with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but playmakers are lacking at receiver for quarterback Drew Allar.

Notre Dame opens its '24 season with a massive showdown at Texas A&M, which will provide early insight into coach Marcus Freeman's third squad. Mike Denbrock returns to South Bend to call plays after guiding LSU's offense to No. 1 nationally in scoring last year. Duke transfer Riley Leonard is set to take the reins at quarterback, while a few additions from the portal - potentially FIU transfer Kris Mitchell - will help the passing game take off in '24. A revamped offensive line is Freeman's biggest concern. A defense anchored by safety Xavier Watts, lineman Howard Cross III, and cornerback Benjamin Morrison is among the best in college football.

Missouri
With a favorable schedule and a high-powered offense led by quarterback Brady Cook and receiver Luther Burden III, Missouri has a chance to match or exceed last year's 11 wins. The biggest concern for coach Eli Drinkwitz is a defense that features a new coordinator (Corey Batoon) and lost several key cogs from last season.

LSU
Matching last year's offensive output with quarterback Jayden Daniels and receivers Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers in the NFL will be challenging for new coordinator Joe Sloan. However, coach Brian Kelly's offense has a rising star quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier and one of the nation's top offensive lines to lean on in '24. Improving a dreadful defense was Kelly's top priority this offseason and a revamped staff should certainly help get this unit on track. New coordinator Blake Baker arrives in Baton Rouge after engineering one of the SEC's top defenses at Missouri and needs to help the Bayou Bengals' defense show immediate progress to help challenge for a national title.

Florida State
The Seminoles were snubbed from the CFB Playoff last season but that won't be the case in '24 if coach Mike Norvell's squad wins the ACC. A handful of transfers - quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (Oregon State), receiver Malik Benson (Alabama), defensive lineman Marvin Jones Jr. (Georgia), and defensive back Earl Little Jr. (Alabama) - join defensive end Patrick Payton and rising star cornerback Azareye’h Thomas to provide a strong foundation for Norvell.

Tier 4

Tier 5 Contenders: Tennessee, Utah, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Miami

Tennessee
Rising star quarterback Nico Iamaleava should restore some firepower to coach Josh Heupel's high-powered offense. Can the defense improve and answer question marks in the secondary?

Utah
The Utes should be the frontrunner in a wide-open Big 12. Quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe are back from injury to help spark an offense that struggled in '23. As always, Utah will be strong on defense.

Clemson
Can the Tigers return to the top of the ACC in '24? Coach Dabo Swinney's squad doesn't have many questions surrounding the defense. However, an offense that managed only 23.6 points in ACC contests last year needs to find a spark behind quarterback Cade Klubnik and second-year coordinator Garrett Riley.

Oklahoma
The Sooners got a tough draw for their first time through the SEC, but this team also has a ton of upside if quarterback Jackson Arnold quickly emerges as a breakout star. The development of a completely revamped offensive line is a major question mark.

Texas A&M
Expect new coach Mike Elko to do a better job at maximizing the talent in College Station.

Miami
Coach Mario Cristobal has upgraded the talent in Coral Gables. Will transfers in quarterback Cam Ward (Washington State) and running back Damien Martinez (Oregon State) help get this team over the hump to win a ACC title and make a deep CFB Playoff run?

Tier 5

Tier 5 Contenders: The Rest of College Football

Anything can happen on a Saturday during college football season. However, it would be a major upset if a team from outside of one of our top four tiers won the national title.

Pencil the rest of college football into this fifth tier.

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter , Instagram , and Facebook .

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