Murphy's Law: The principle that if it is possible for something to go wrong, it will go wrong.
Recently, I put out my optimistic preview for the Dallas Cowboys 2024 NFL season. Now, it's time to flip the script and look at the team through a pessimists' lens.
Below are not actual predictions but rather an outlook of what things would look like if the key risks the Cowboys have took on went wrong.
Cowboys' run game woes grow exponentially on both sides of the ball
The Cowboys talked a big game about wanting to improve the run game on both sides of the ball. The problem is they turned around and let two starting offensive linemen walk in free agency while getting worse across the defensive line by losing multiple rotational players and 2023 starting nose tackle Johnathan Hankins.
The Cowboys are pushing all the chips to the center of the table when it comes to Mazi Smith, as there isn't a viable Plan B on the roster to play at nose. If the second-year player who struggled to keep up his weight as a rookie doesn't pan out, the Cowboys defense is in for a long, long year.
Tyler Guyton gets a rough welcome into the NFL
In the first eight weeks of the season, the following pass rushers are potential matchups that Guyton will have to face starting at left tackle, in order:
- Week 1: Myles Garrett (Browns)
- Week 2: Chase Young (Saints)
- Week 3: Odafe Oweh (Ravens)
- Week 4: Brian Burns / Kayvon Thibodeaux (Giants)
- Week 5: Alex Highsmith / T.J. Watt (Steelers)
- Week 6: Aidan Hutchinson (Lions)
- Week 8: Nick Bosa (49ers)
That's a gauntlet of high quality edge rushers the Cowboys will be facing. For Guyton, that means the upside talk won't cut it. He's a great athlete whose technique was raw coming out of college. He's put the work in though and has great mentors in Dallas, including teammates Tyler Smith and Zack Martin and of course, Duke Manyweather, who we have seen work with the rookie with our own eyes.
But there's a high likelihood Guyton struggles early on as he adapts to the NFL level and that could really harm the Cowboys offense in the first half of the season.
Trevon Diggs, DeMarvion Overshown don't return at 100%
The Cowboys did not walk into the aisle of expensive free agents this offseason as their biggest signings were Eric Kendricks and Ezekiel Elliott, who are due a combined sum of $5 million in 2024, minus incentives.
A big reason why the Cowboys didn't feel the need to go to the market throwing bags of money around is the fact that they believe they'll get better through players coming back from injury. Mainly, Trevon Diggs and DeMarvion Overshown are returning from season-ending ACL injuries suffered early on in 2023.
If these two don't return at 100%, big question marks will surround their positions. The Cowboys would likely have to look at making a splash at cornerback, perhaps targeting Stephon Gilmore. As for linebacker, Dallas would be in a concerning spot with little depth behind Kendricks and Damone Clark.
Playoffs prove to be too much yet again
It's been 186 days since the Cowboys lost at home to the seven-seed Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round and I still can't come up with the words to describe what happened that evening. The Cowboys were seven-point favorites and should've absolutely won that game. Instead, they came out completely unprepared and were punched in the mouth more than a UFC fighter that's already hit the canvas.
The Cowboys could go 17-0 and fans would be sweating as soon as the playoffs begun. And it would only be fair. Forget stats and in-depth analysis: A pessimistic preview to the Cowboys 2024 season wouldn't be complete if we didn't bring up the possibility of them crumbling in do-or-die football season.
Win-loss record prediction: What's the Cowboys' floor?
If you're asking me for my worst-case scenario for the Cowboys, which is the whole point of this exercise, I believe it can't be that low.
Barring major injuries, the team is way too talented to have a terrible record. Having Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, CeeDee Lamb, among many others will inevitably translate into wins. I'd put the floor at eight wins if just about everything goes wrong but I have a tough time seeing them struggling that much.
Related: One of the greatest Cowboys of all time just put Jerry Jones on blast amid Dak Prescott contract drama
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