Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips . MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring .
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
July Fireworks
Historically, offense increases in July with warm and humid weather benefiting the distance fly balls travel. Sure enough, this year is following suit. The average fly ball distance is still down from last season, but July homers and July BABIP are both up, resulting in more runs per game.
One of the repercussions of the perceived dead ball was fly ball pitchers benefited disproportionately more from the environment in the cooler months. With the mercury rising, it will be interesting to see if pitchers of this ilk suffer down the stretch.
Two of the prime examples are slated to take the hill on Sunday. They are Chicago Cubs SP Shota Imanaga and Kansas City Royals SP Seth Lugo .
Imanaga has mostly avoided potential pitfalls over his past four outings, though he was lit up by the New York Mets for 10 runs on 11 hits in three frames in late June. He rebounded over his last three efforts with a trio of quality starts. To his credit, Imanaga does the two things most pertinent to avoiding a drop in performance as he carries an above average strikeout rate and a miniscule walk rate.
Prior to his last outing, Lugo also was able to fend off the repercussions of added fly ball distance. Before the break, Lugo surrendered five runs on 10 hits to the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park, but it was mostly the approach of the Red Sox lineup and not being victimized by fly balls. Lugo also limits walks, but not to the extent of Imanaga. Lugo's strikeout rate is around league average, which is palatable, but also renders him more vulnerable than Imanaga.
Of the two, Imanaga has a better chance of maintaining better production. He's due some organic regression (2.97 ERA compared to a 3.77 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA), but so long as Imanaga maintains his current skills level, a few more homers aren't going to hurt him too much. Lugo, on the other hand, is more susceptible to a decline in performance.
Everything else you need to know for Sunday
- Keep in mind Sunday marks the end of the extended fantasy period, beginning July 8. We're spared the early start this week with action kicking off at a reasonable 1:05 p.m. ET. After taking a week off to cover the MLB draft, the ESPN Sunday night game returns with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Red Sox.
- The highest ranked streamer on the ledger is Mets SP Christian Scott (7.4% rostered in ESPN leagues). Scott has a road date with the Miami Marlins . The rookie right-hander hasn't displayed the potential teased as a prospect, but sometimes it takes a bit before freshman find their footing. Sunday avails the percent spot to turn things around as Scott will face the team averaging the second fewest runs per game in MLB.
- Facing the Marlins isn't always smooth sailing. In his last start heading into the break, Cincinnati Reds SP Andrew Abbott yielded five runs in 3 1/3 innings to Miami. However, he was pitching well previously, and will the break to reboot, Abbott should regain form in the nation's capital. The lefty squares off with a Washington Nationals lineup sporting the third worst wOBA with a lefty on the hill.
- After auditioning several candidates over the first two months of the season, the Atlanta Braves have seemingly found their fifth starter with Spencer Schwellenbach (10.5% rostered). Schwellenbach's 4.43 ERA is misleading as evidenced by a 3.87 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA. Sunday's matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals will be a challenge, as their lineup has an above average wOBA facing right-handers, but Schwellenbach still checks in as one of the slates better streaming options.
- Digging deep. Philadelphia Philles SP Tyler Phillips is in play, especially for those needing some strikeouts. Phillips has punched out an impressive 12 hitters while allowing no walks in his inaugural 10 MLB innings. On Sunday, Phillips draws a Pittsburgh Pirates offense with the sixth highest strikeout rate facing righties.
It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league . Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart , which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
- Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 47%) at Austin Gomber
- Tyler O'Neill (BOS, LF -- 44%) at James Paxton
- Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 47%) vs. Tyler Phillips
- Heliot Ramos (SF, LF -- 45%) at Gomber
- Wilmer Flores (SF, 1B -- 7%) at Gomber
- Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 5%) at Marcus Stroman
- Jorge Soler (SF, RF -- 45%) at Gomber
- Byron Buxton (MIN, DH -- 34%) vs. Aaron Civale
- Luis Matos (SF, CF -- 2%) at Gomber
- Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 50%) at Joey Estes
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
- Willy Adames (MIL, SS -- 86%) at Joe Ryan
- Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 54%) vs. Brandon Pfaadt
- Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 52%) vs. Pfaadt
- Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 76%) vs. Shane Baz
- Corbin Carroll (ARI, LF -- 94%) at Shota Imanaga
- Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 80%) at Ryan
- Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 52%) at Bryan Woo
- Yainer Diaz (HOU, C -- 89%) at Woo
- Jose Altuve (HOU, 2B -- 100%) at Woo
- Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 89%) at Andrew Heaney
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday
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