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MLB home run props for Tue. 7/23: Hot hand, huge price
By Jack Dougherty,
10 hours ago
We were unable to cash a home run bet on Monday, so we're looking to bounce back with a winning day. Let's take a look at our three favorite HR bets for Tuesday's MLB slate.
Suarez is having himself one heck of a July. The Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman is batting .325 and slugging .650 with a 180 wRC+ against righties this month, and he's staring down a great matchup on Tuesday night. Kansas City Royals right-hander Alec Marsh is giving up the seventh-highest barrel rate among qualified pitchers, and he's surrendered 10 homers over his last 10 starts. It's also going to be hot and humid in Kansas City, which will only help fly balls carry through the air.
We're going right back to the Boston Red Sox at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Colorado Rockies starter Ty Blach ranks in the sixth percentile in barrel rate and the first percentile in xERA, and the bullpen behind him has the highest ERA in baseball. O'Neill is batting .318 and slugging .636 against left-handed pitching this season, and he's 8-18 (.444) with two home runs since returning from the All-Star break.
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Landon Knack is a prime fade candidate for a home run prop due to his 10.8 percent barrel rate, 47.7 percent hard-hit rate and 33.3 percent fly ball rate. The rookie has already given up eight home runs in eight appearances this season. Since the All-Star break, Fitzgerald has three homers in only eight at-bats. He hits a ton of fly balls (35.1 percent), which is exactly what we're looking for at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium with the wind projected to blow out to right-center field. Let's ride the hot hand at a huge price.
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