Fantasy Football 2024: Beware RBs That Play With Mobile QBs

The 2024 Athlon Sports Fantasy Football Preview Magazine , which is on sale now, includes a feature that breaks down the “10 things we learned in 2023.” This is an excerpt:

Beware of RBs in QB-Focused Red-Zone Offenses

There were some bad outcomes for some higher-range running back picks last year that didn’t involve injuries. For instance, Tony Pollard couldn’t cash in many touchdowns at the goal line despite the second-most opportunities in the league. The unforeseeable combination of the Dallas offensive line and his inability to play the same coming off an injury formed a perfect storm and forced Dak Prescott to throw.

Easier to see coming? James Cook and D’Andre Swift combining for seven rushing touchdowns. Swift averaged just 10 fantasy points per game despite mostly seizing control of Philadelphia’s backfield in Week 2. Cook piled up more than his fair share of “fantasy kryptonite” lines like 14/67/0 and 17/73/0 despite being the lead back in Buffalo.

What did both players have in common? Sharing the goal-line carries with a superlative rushing quarterback. Jalen Hurts had 43 carries inside the 20, more than all but six running backs. Josh Allen had 35 to Cook’s 31. To be fair, that probably should have produced a more even touchdown split on the ground than 15 (Allen) to two (Cook), but it is imperative to understand that the reduction of opportunities really hurts the upside for these backs.

Other than Cook and new Eagle Saquon Barkley, who do we need to look at skeptically this year? Both Steelers backs have some neutered upside if Justin Fields takes over at quarterback. Lamar Jackson (30 red-zone carries) makes me slightly nervous about Derrick Henry’s fantasy upside. The looming specter of Taysom Hill hurts Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller. Jayden Daniels led all college quarterbacks in rushing attempts last year and could tamp down the production from Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler.

If the most valuable thing a running back can do for you is score touchdowns (and it is), you have to be aware when there’s a real threat to that possibility.

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