Former State Department official analyzes implications of U.S.-Russia prisoner trade

High-profile Americans held in Russia were released as part of the biggest East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War. Nick Schifrin discussed the larger implications of the exchange with Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former State Department official who served in the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations.

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Geoff Bennett: Now let’s get some additional perspective on the prisoner swap.

Nick Schifrin has that — Nick.

Nick Schifrin: Geoff, to discuss the larger implications of today’s events, we turn to Andrew Weiss. He’s a former State Department official who served in the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations, and is now the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Thanks very much, Andrew Weiss. Welcome back…

Andrew Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Great to be here.

Nick Schifrin: … to the “News Hour.”

As we just showed a few minutes ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of pride and time welcomed home all these Russian spies and their families on a big red carpet, big flowers.

What messages is he sending?

Andrew Weiss: So Vladimir Putin goes to great lengths to wrap himself in the valor of the Russian security establishment, but all of that covers up a pretty unpleasant and embarrassing fact, which is that Russian spies have been arrested all over the world or caught red-handed doing bad stuff, including the hit man in the Berlin case, Vadim Krasikov.

Nick Schifrin: Krasikov, right.

Andrew Weiss: So what Vladimir Putin is doing by putting on such a big show is covering up, frankly, for the continued underperformance of his security establishment and acting like they’re big heroes. They’re screw-ups. They’re not heroes.

Nick Schifrin: As I reported earlier, the U.S. offered two different trades before today, for Whelan by himself and then Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, including those two Russian so-called illegal sleeper agents that had been caught in Slovenia, but both were rejected.

And the message that the U.S. got was, call us back when we have Krasikov. So why is Krasikov so important to Putin?

Andrew Weiss: So there’s indications that they know each other personally. The Wall Street Journal has a wonderful long piece that appeared some time today that says they potentially worked together back when Vladimir Putin was the deputy mayor of St. Petersburg in the 1990s.

So this is a career Russian intelligence operative who’s presumably conducted a variety of assassinations and targeted killings in various parts of the world, including in Moscow, and who claims to have gone to shooting ranges and done other things with Vladimir Putin personally.

So there seems to be a connection between the two men — the two men, rather. And you saw when he came down the jetway today at the airport of Moscow, Vladimir Putin hugged him.

Nick Schifrin: And you and I have talked multiple times about how the different parts of the national security apparatus in Russia often fight each other.

Could there also be a dispute within the intelligence agencies inside of Russia over who to release? And would the FSB — Putin being a former KGB colonel, would the FSB win that fight?

Andrew Weiss: So Russia has a sprawling national security apparatus, which is big by design. It’s intended to kind of avoid power consolidating in any corner, so that Vladimir Putin can kind of divide and rule.

But what we have seen, rather than the Russian security establishment backing away from confrontation with the West, is leaning in. And so we have seen reports of the Russian intelligence services trying to assassinate the CEO of a senior German defense manufacturer. We have seen them conduct sabotage operations.

When Vladimir Putin says he’s at war with the West, I think we need to take him at his word.

Nick Schifrin: Why would Putin agree to this deal now, three months before the U.S. election,instead of waiting.

Andrew Weiss: Vladimir Putin is a cold-blooded operator who is tactical and who believes in being transactional.

So for him to get what he thinks is a pretty good deal — for ages, they have been pushing to get the hit man in the Berlin case released. This is a person who is serving a life sentence for conducting a murder, a targeted killing, in broad daylight. So, for them, this is a good deal.

And if you look at the other Russians who are coming out of detention, these are people who Russians wanted back, who are intelligence operatives that have been rolled up in Poland and Norway and in Slovenia, as well as people conducted in U.S. courts.

But what is — all these debates about a deal come down to are the numbers, and the counting game is really complicated. So U.S. officials today are at pains to say we’re getting 16 people out and the Russians are getting eight back. So it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Nick Schifrin: And yet Putin did not release other Americans, as Geoff was just highlighting, Marc Fogel included. Why might he withhold some of them?

Andrew Weiss: They’re bargaining chips. So there are other Russians that they want back. There are people that the Russians will continue to take into attention.

Any American who’s foolish enough to go to visit Russia, even for family reasons, is at risk. President Biden today made a point of that in saying the underlying message of today’s good news is also that people need to steer clear of travel to dangerous destinations like Russia.

Nick Schifrin: And quickly, in the moments we have left, you have had an extensive career in government. How complicated would it have been to coordinate all the European countries and all the U.S. agencies and Russian intelligence to get this deal?

Andrew Weiss: I’m glad you brought that up. That’s what’s truly unprecedented about today’s news. It’s a multidimensional problem that wasn’t just negotiated between the United States and Russia.

The German role was absolutely critical because, as you pointed out, that was the key demand from the Russian side. So without the German support, this deal would not have come together. And then you had lesser roles played by our allies.

Nick Schifrin: Andrew Weiss, thanks very much — Geoff, back to you.