It takes good fortune to be successful in college football. Most of that good fortune is due to the talent on the roster, but some of it can be related to the uncontrollable factors in a football game.
The Sooners might have played in the Big 12 title game if not for the injury to Danny Stutsman or the defensive pass interference that went uncalled against Drake Stoops against Oklahoma State . Sometimes, you’re just unlucky.
Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports identified a group of teams that are out of luck heading into 2024. Two of those teams are on the Sooners’ schedule in 2024: the Missouri Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels.
The Tigers are a popular playoff pick for many this season, and while I understand why, there are reasons for skepticism. They were 4-0 in one-score games last year. Of course, the Tigers made some of their own luck by taking care of the football in those games. Their 0.78% Whoopsy Daisy Rate in one-score games was outstanding, and their mark of 1.83% on the season ranked sixth nationally. Still, while nobody looks down on a three-point win over Kansas State, the four-point win over Middle Tennessee, seven-point win over Memphis and two-point win over Florida (all at home), the narrow scope of those victories should raise an eyebrow or two. – Fornelli, CBS Sports
The Missouri Tigers have done a nice job on the recruiting trail and the transfer portal. A team that hadn’t won more than six games in any of Eli Drinkwitz’s first three seasons in Columbia erupted for 11 wins in 2023. They get the benefit of a schedule that “features” Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Those four teams finished a combined 5-27 in SEC play last season. The nonconference slate includes Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and UMass. They may not be as good as they were last year, but if they don’t win 10 games, it’ll be a huge disappointment.
The other team Fornelli points to is Ole Miss. The Rebels were good in one-score games as well and might be better set up to continue that good luck as Fornelli discusses.
Another SEC team getting plenty of playoff love that had some luck on its side last year. Like Missouri, the Rebels went 4-0 in one-score games. There was the 55-49 win over LSU, 27-20 over Arkansas, 28-21 over Auburn, and 38-35 over Texas A&M. The primary difference between Ole Miss and Missouri in my eyes is that only one of those wins was by a field goal or fewer. I don’t know that Ole Miss was lucky last year as much as its defense allowed opponents to hang around, and the Rebels did a lot of work to address that side of the ball this offseason. I’m including them here because of their 4-0 record, but if you were to ask me which one of these lucky teams was in the best shape to continue being lucky in 2024, I’d take the Rebels. – Fornelli, CBS Sports
The Oklahoma Sooners will travel to face Ole Miss and Missouri in the second half of the season. With their schedule, the Sooners will have to win those games if they want to make the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma improved significantly from 2022 to 2023 in one-score games. After they were 0-5 in tight ball games in Brent Venables first season, they improved to 3-2, with their losses coming to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Notably, Danny Stutsman missed half of the Kansas game and all of the Oklahoma State game.
The Sooners have an ever-improving roster under Venables. This is his best team yet despite the turnover along the offensive line and at quarterback. Oklahoma has better depth throughout the roster and a defense that will be one of the best in college football in 2024.
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