Where ESPN ranks Tennessee as a first-time College Football Playoff contender

Tennessee Football has more margin for error this season, the first with the new 12-team College Football Playoff field in place. That’s why ESPN ranked the Vols had the Vols third in a ranking of first-time playoff contenders this week.

“The Vols would have made the 12-team field in 2022,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote , “when they finished sixth on Selection Day, but that was their only top-20 finish in the first decade of the playoff.”

Tennessee started 8-0 in 2022 and was ranked No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff ranking of the season in November. The Vols lost at Georgia and South Carolina over the next three weeks and had to settle for a New Year’s Six Bowl appearance in the Orange Bowl, beating Clemson 31-14 to finish 11-2.

“Tennessee faces both Alabama and Georgia this year,” Dinich wrote , “but if those are the only two games (the Vols) lose, they could still have a chance in this system. According to ESPN Stats & Information, in the first 10 years of the playoff, 23 of the 25 SEC teams to finish with two or fewer losses finished in the committee’s top 10.”

Penn State, Missouri topped ESPN’s ranking of first-time CFP contenders

The top two teams on ESPN’s eight-team list were Penn State and Missouri, respectively. The Vols came in ahead of No. 4 Kansas State, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 6 Louisville, No. 7 Boise State and No. 8 Utah.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Tennessee ranked No. 9 overall entering the season, with a 36.9% chance to make the playoff. Penn State is No. 6 overall and has a playoff chance of 59.1%. Missouri is ranked 10th with a 37.3% chance to make the playoff.

While the move to the 12-team playoff field helps Tennessee, ESPN wrote that conference expansion is what could “derail” the Vols while looking for a spot in the bracket.

“Tennessee’s trip to Oklahoma on Sept. 21 is now a conference game,” Dinich wrote , “and ESPN’s FPI gives the Sooners a 59.9% chance to win. If the Vols lose three games (at Oklahoma, vs. Alabama and at Georgia), their playoff hopes will likely shatter. There’s not enough on the rest of the schedule to compensate for that in the committee meeting room, where wins against ranked opponents are a major focus.”

Season Opener: No. 15 Tennessee vs. Chattanooga, August 31, 12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Tennessee opens the season against Chattanooga on August 31 and faces North Carolina State on September 7 in Charlotte. After hosting Kent State on September 14, the Vols open SEC play with road games at Oklahoma (September 21) and at Arkansas (October 5).

Tennessee hosts Florida and Alabama back-to-back on October 12 and October 19, respectively, then has home games against Kentucky (November 2) and Mississippi State (November 9) before going to Georgia on November 16.

The regular season closes with the home finale against UTEP on November 23, then a trip to Vanderbilt on November 30.

“Tennessee has a respectable non-conference game against NC State in Charlotte,” Dinich added , “but wins against Chattanooga, Kent State and UTEP won’t separate the Vols from other contenders, and their other SEC opponents might not be ranked.”

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