Using Logic for Each Game on Kentucky Football’s Schedule

By now, you’ve hopefully seen the KSR Writer Predictions for the upcoming football season. I personally am looking forward to what this team can do and the beefed-up schedule they will be facing. They should be very competitive all season long. I expect an upset in there as well.

But my prediction landed on 6-6 even with all of those beliefs in play. Because in Year 12 of the Mark Stoops era, we now have a pretty solid idea of the kind of program that he is running. We now have loads and loads of trends and tendencies we can rely on. And so my prediction this year is entirely based on LOGIC.

So take a look at my mindset of how I got to 6-6 using logical conclusions for each game:

1ST HALF

GAME 1: SOUTHERN MISS
LOGIC SAYS: WIN 40-16

Since 2018, Kentucky has faced a MAC or Sun Belt school in the opening game each season, sans the COVID year of 2020. They have gone 5-0 in those games by an average score of 40-16.

GAME 2: SOUTH CAROLINA
LOGIC SAYS: WIN 27-20

UK is 9-2 in the 2nd game of the season under Stoops. They’ve beaten South Carolina (2015), Florida (2018, 2022), and Missouri (2021) in SEC games. It seems that Stoops teams shake off the rust and find their footing in game two. This definitely could be a season destroyer if UK loses but logic says they won’t.

GAME 3: GEORGIA
LOGIC SAYS: LOSS 24-16

Georgia is obviously the gold standard of college football right now so this would be a program-defining win should the Cats get it. And Kentucky has been very competitive against the Dogs in Kroger Field. The last 4 losses have been 27-24, 34-17, 14-3, and 16-6. I’d be shocked and disappointed if UGA blew out UK this year. But there is no logic to suggest Kentucky would win.

GAME 4: OHIO
LOGIC SAYS: WIN 38-20

Ohio is a decent program so I don’t think Kentucky will waltz through them. But UK hasn’t lost to a Non-Power-4 team since Southern Miss in 2016. They haven’t lost to a MAC team since 2004. This program is just too strong and too solidified to drop this game.

GAME 5: AT OLE MISS
LOGIC SAYS: LOSS 35-13

I know a lot of people are thinking Kentucky might go to Oxford and shock the Rebels. But this Ole Miss team is better than 2022. This one will likely be Top-10 when the teams play. And UK is 2-18 in games against Top 10 teams under Stoops with an average score of 35-13 in those games. Logic says UK will be in for a long day.

GAME 6: VANDERBILT
LOGIC SAYS: WIN 42-10

Clark Lea is probably on his way out at Vanderbilt. Kentucky has sent Vandy home with a loss in the final year of a fired/resigned Commodores coach in 2020 (Derek Mason), 2010 (Robbie Caldwell), 2001 (Woody Widenhofer), 1996 (Rod Dowhower), and 1990 (Watson Brown). Add Lea to the list.

2ND HALF

GAME 7: AT FLORIDA
LOGIC SAYS: LOSS 24-23 (overtime)

Florida no longer has the aura of Gators teams past. But this game starts the 2nd half of the season for Kentucky. The Cats are 7-20 in SEC road games in the 2nd half of the season. And six of those wins are against Missouri and Vanderbilt. Florida is better than them.

GAME 8: AUBURN
LOGIC SAYS: WIN 31-19

It’s this game right here where Mark Stoops has elevated the program. Kentucky blows this game against a down but elite program 10 times out of 10 in previous tenures. Stoops has turned this game into a win. Think LSU 2021.

GAME 9: AT TENNESSEE
LOGIC SAYS: LOSS 38-21

Kentucky has beaten Tennessee a couple of times now under Stoops. But those Vols teams were 4-8 (2017) and 3-7 (2020). Those were their absolute worst teams. This Vols team should be quite good. And logic says UK doesn’t compete well against those teams in Knoxville.

GAME 10: MURRAY STATE
LOGIC SAYS: WIN 52-7

Did you see how bad Missouri trounced the Racers? Kentucky might be able to pick their score here. No logic needed.

GAME 11: AT TEXAS
LOGIC SAYS: LOSS 27-21

There isn’t much data to compare this game to. So I am simply using the same logic as Ole Miss above. UK doesn’t compete well against top-10 teams on the road. If Texas is as good as people think they might be, hard to pick the Cats.

GAME 12: LOUISVILLE
LOGIC SAYS: LOSS 31-28

This is all about the numbers in this rivalry. It has gone in phases ever since coming back in 1994. Louisville won 3 straight from 1999-01. Kentucky ended that on the road. UofL won 4 straight from 2003-06. UK ended that at home. UK won 4 straight from 2007-2010. UofL ended that streak on the road. UofL won 5 straight from 2011-2015. UK ended that on the road. UK has now won 5 straight from 2018-2023. UL is on the road. They are due. They’ll be pissed about what happened last year. And if UK is sitting at 6-5 coming into this game, I worry about motivation for our Cats. Logic says it might be the Cards year.

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