Steve Sarkisian’s Texas enters Bobby Bowden’s fourth stage of program building

There’s a well-known saying attributed to former Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden that goes, “First you lose big, then you lose close. Then you win close, and finally you win big.” That should sound familiar to followers of Steve Sarkisian ‘s Texas tenure. So far, it certainly tracks.

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In general, the season reveals what I view to be Sark’s greatest strength. While many are focused on his reputation for being an offensive guru, what I appreciate most is his program building. An observation I made of Sark in his Lose Close season, was, he wasn’t receiving the proper credit for the job he was doing as a head coach because his offense was too inconsistent. Overlooking the offense’s issues, you could see the makings of a successful rebuild. He was doing a great job as a head coach.

Due to that program building — which is a combination of roster management and cultivating culture — Sark is proving Bowden accurate. The key, though, is you have to be a good coach to pull it off. Many coaches can’t get past the first or second stage. Some even stall out at the third stage.

Year 1- Lose Big

Aside from the Arkansas loss in 2021, Texas (5-7) didn’t lose big on the scoreboard, but it did lose often, including a six-game losing streak that wasn’t snapped until Roschon Johnson put on his superman cape against Kansas State in the season finale. (I maintain that was a major win for propelling the program into the offseason with the right mindset. We immediately started reporting positive things about the program the following January.)

One of the losses that season was at home to Kansas (2-10) in Lance Leipold’ s first season. Speaking of coaches proving Bowden correct, Leipold fits the aphorism to a T.

We provided a lot of context during the course of that season about how things were so close to being different — sliding doors, etc. — but a six-game losing streak and home loss to KU qualifies as losing big.

Year 2 – Lose Close

The 2022 campaign (8-5), featured the king of all small losses when the Horns lost to Alabama at home by one point. On the Texas all-time win-loss record that was just a couple of games removed from the Kansas loss but it was far removed from a program building standpoint. Sark clearly made the most of his offseason.

The Bama game was followed by another heartbreaking loss just a couple weeks later in overtime on the road to Texas Tech. (Where are my DC watch party people at?!) Based on metrics, in that contest Texas had the lowest probability loss of the entire college football season. “Close” didn’t come close to defining that game.

All of the losses that year were close, and they included games against No. 11 Oklahoma State and national runner-up TCU.

Year 3- Win Close

The Bowden matrix continued apace in 2023 (12-2) with a number of close wins. This was the season Texas learned how to win, but it was far from easy. The team played sluggish in a couple of non-con games and then had close calls against the likes of Kansas State, Houston, and TCU. The close calls went beyond playing through the loss of Quinn Ewers . This was a team still learning how to win, and then finally learning how to win.

Texas’ two losses occurred in the final seconds against OU in the Red River Shootout and Washington in National Semi-final. Tough losses to swallow, easy season to appreciate.

Year 4 – Win Big?

We are quite limited on data for 2024 (1-0) but on Saturday we witnessed a team that’s ready to win big after the 52-0 shearing of the Colorado State Rams. With the move to the SEC the schedule is more difficult than in years prior but that looked like a golden-era Mack Brown team. Those Texas teams were able to navigate some difficult conference schedules.

The task of program building never ends but for this season it appears Sark has built a program. A good example of that would be, the second-team offense and defense is better than the first-team offense and defense from 2021.

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Texas has depth, experience, talent, leadership, and, it would appear, coaching across the board, not just at the top.

Now all it needs is a little more data.

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