Texas and Louisiana on alert for deluge of tropical rainfall

Last week, a tropical rainstorm brought heavy rainfall to portions of Florida. This week, AccuWeather hurricane experts are monitoring for tropical development in three separate areas across the Atlantic Basin, all of which have the potential to bring tropical impacts to the United States.

The first and most concerning location for tropical activity is in the Bay of Campeche, which AccuWeather began to highlight as a high risk on Thursday afternoon. Since, AccuWeather experts have highlighted two other zones near the southern U.S. bear monitoring this week. It's possible that one of these could strengthen into Alberto, and be the first named storm of the season.

Flooding downpours threaten Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts

AccuWeather hurricane experts continue to warn of a high chance for development in the western Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.

"Very warm waters in this area of the Gulf, as well as low wind shear will make this a condusive environment for a tropical system to form," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski of about the tropical potential.

A broad, swirling area of clouds and rain is expected to become more defined early this week in that area because of these factors, and may even strengthen into a tropical depression or storm. If it were to reach tropical-storm status, with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, it could be given the name Alberto.

However, limited time over water and close proximity to land will limit the potential for a tropical system to intensify quickly. And, just like last week's tropical rainstorm that deluged portions of Florida, wind gusts of 39 mph are not required for a storm to be impactful.

"Whether or not a more structured tropical system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico, a plume of rich, deep tropical moisture is expected to surge into Texas and Louisiana into the middle of the week," Pydynowski explained.

A wet Monday morning commute is expected along the Interstate 10 corridor from New Orleans to Houston, as downpours threaten to slow travel, reduced visibility and cause flooding. Rain is forecast to continue into Wednesday before some of the heavier downpours shift north up the Mississippi River Valley and westward into more of Texas.

The ample supply of tropical moisture could allow rainfall totals to add up quickly, bringing the risk for over half a foot of rain across parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 30 inches is possible in the hardest-hit areas, resulting in road closures.

The Houston area has already seen over 6 inches of rain through the first half of June, which is an amount more typical for the entire month. This new round of heavy rainfall to the already drenched area could bring renewed flooding woes for southeastern Texas.

Other areas along the Gulf Coast could use the rain. Brownsville, Texas. has only had 0.17 of an inch of rain so far in June, 14% of the historical average. In New Orleans, only 10% of the month's rain fell in the first 15 days of June. In these areas, the soil may be so dry from the lack of recent rain that flash flooding could occur in the heavier downpours.

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Behind this wave of tropical rainfall, it's not out of the question that another tropical system could form near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late in the week.

"With warm waters and low shear still present in the southern GOM and northwestern Caribbean next weekend, yet another opportunity for tropical development may present itself," warned Pydynowski.

Depending on the wind pattern in the atmosphere, any moisture from this area may again funnel into the Gulf Coast for the last week of June. Given the expected rain in the coming week, the risk for localized flooding may increase.

Southeast Atlantic Coast on alert for tropical development

As the middle of the week approaches, yet another area could see a developing tropical system, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

"This appears to be a quick-moving and compact low pressure area that will be moving westward into northeastern Florida or perhaps as far north as southeastern Georgia on Thursday," said Pydynowski.

A stronger storm could bring gusty winds, especially to coastal locations. But even a less-organized storm would bring rough surf and downpours from the northern Bahamas to the Southeast Atlantic Coast.

Heavy tropical rainfall may hit some of the same areas that were drenched with last week's tropical rainstorm. The highest rainfall totals are likely to miss to the north of Miami, which had over 11 inches of rain, and the town of Aventura, where 20 inches of rain fell. Instead, locations from Melbourne, Florida, to Charleston, South Carolina, may be more at risk for the heavy rain.

The zone currently primed for the heaviest rain has had very little rain so far this month, including Jacksonville, Florida which only has reported 0.64 of an inch.

Forecasters will continue to monitor the development potential of all three areas throughout the week.

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