Tropics produce five areas of concern

Thursday’s National Hurricane Center report showed five areas of concern spread out over thousands of miles from Gulf of Mexico through the Atlantic Ocean. The seven-day outlook map was riddled with observational areas.

The good news is none of those areas is a major concern for the Florida Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center is a part of NOAA and the National Weather Service, and its scientists all work together to provide daily updates on tropical weather.

Just off the coast of Texas in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has a 10% chance of forming into anything worse in the next week.

“Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so,” the NWS National Hurricane Center report stated Thursday.

Over in the northwestern Atlantic, a group of showers and thunderstorms have become better organized. Satellite data indicates the system is producing winds near gale-force, but it’s not aimed at the United States and is expected to fizzle.

“This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States,” NWS National Hurricane Center report said. “Once the low moves over cooler waters by early Saturday, further development is not expected.”

In the eastern tropical Atlantic, a slow-moving trough of low pressure has the potential to develop somewhat by early next week.

“Some slow development appears possible early next week when the disturbance begins moving slowly northwestward,” the report said.

Formation chance is 20% for the next week.

Another storm is headed toward Mexico and Central America in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, moving toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is a disorganized westward-moving tropical wave.

“Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday,” the report said. “Some gradual development is possible late in the weekend into early next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”

Formation is low for the next week at 10%.

Finally, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic located near the Leeward Islands is producing limited thunderstorm activity. Strong winds are inhibiting development at this time.

“By early next week, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development while the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean,” the report said.

A formation chance of 10% is expected in the next seven days.

Forecasting models like the EURO and GFC vary day-to-day and by run time. They can become more accurate as a system becomes organized. They also are at the mercy of always changing fronts.

Thursday’s EURO model run only indicates heavy rainfall around the Gulf Coast of Florida, a normal situation for September.