Editor's note: This is the first story in a two-part series. The "Best-case scenario for Iowa State football in 2024" story will be published later this week.
It’s easy to dream about beating your rival and claiming bragging rights. It’s satisfying to think about your team romping through its conference and earning a championship. It’s thrilling to imagine a playoff run. And maybe you don’t speak the ultimate dream aloud, but, heck yeah, you think about a national championship.
That’s the fun stuff.
It’s also not what this story is about.
No, that one will come later in the week when we investigate what a best-case scenario for Iowa State football is in a 2024 season that is dripping with anticipation. This story, though, is about the opposite end of that spectrum.
This is about the worst-case scenario.
Now, let’s set some ground rules here.
This will be about the known issues (say, replacing T.J. Tampa) and the known unknowns (like, is Abu Sama an all-Big 12 back?).
We’ll have to leave the unknown unknowns (like, say, a statewide gambling probe or injuries) that can really derail a season off to the side. You don’t need me coming up with wild reasons for a season to go sideways – those are traumatic enough when they manifest themselves. We don’t need to type them into existence here.
But for as good as the Cyclones may be this season (don’t forget that I picked them to go 9-3 overall and 7-2 in the Big 12 ), there are landmines and sinkholes along the way that could keep the Cyclones from reaching the potential the roster seems to be oozing.
Let’s look at some things that could contribute to a disappointing fall at Jack Trice Stadium.
The offensive line
This is simply a yearly tradition at this point.
The Iowa State offensive line seems to be trapped in a development band between "not very good" and "maybe above average." The Cyclones just haven’t been able to have a breakout at this position group in coach Matt Campbell’s previous eight seasons.
Certainly, there’s reason for optimism this season after last year’s group showed improvement (though it was inconsistent) and the bulk of that group returning while being infused with some intriguing pieces.
More: Hines: Is 2024 the year for Iowa State football's offensive line to be great?
But the track record is just not there to feel secure that this offensive line is going to perform at a Big 12 championship level.
If the Iowa State offense disappoints in 2024, it’s not hard to imagine the offensive line as the top culprit.
New offensive coordinator
Taylor Mouser is saying all the right things about his new job, and he’s drawing a ton of praise both from players and coaches in the first months of his tenure as Iowa State’s offensive coordinator.
But being a first-time OC is a difficult task.
Nate Scheelhaase grew into the role last season, but it took a bumpy start – and a loss at Ohio – before it seemed like the offense found its stride.
More: Hines: Being Iowa State football's offensive coordinator is more than just calling plays
Mouser, who also is the tight ends coach, will have quite a few tools to use – especially in the passing game – but learning and understanding how to deploy them shouldn’t be taken as a given.
Play calling might only be one of Mouser’s job responsibilities, but it is the most high-profile while also being quite nuanced and notoriously difficult. Expecting a savant on Day 1 probably isn’t realistic.
What probably is realistic is to expect some growing pains.
Secondary depth
I know we said we weren’t going to take injuries into account, but it feels like fair game to note that safeties Jeremiah Cooper and Malik Verdon both missed multiple games last year. And Beau Freyler’s physical style is enough to cause some nerves.
Can that group stay healthy? Is the depth behind them good enough to sustain their high level of play should one (or more) of those guys get sidelined?
Guys like Jamison Patton, Drew Surges and Jontez Williams got snaps last year, but are they now at a level that can keep the Cyclone defense at an elite level?
More: Hines: Iowa State football game-by-game predictions for the 2024 season
More: Hines: Campbell exuding quiet confidence about Iowa State football in 2024
More: Hines: How Iowa State football newcomers tackled the 2024 playbook
The running backs room
All indications are that Iowa State believes its running backs room is in very good shape.
Abu Sama flashed brilliance last year against Kansas State. Carson Hansen played a lot of third downs last year and has drawn praise from the staff. Jaylon Jackson is in his fifth collegiate season after starting at both Lamar and Eastern Michigan. Dylan Lee is a highly rated prospect.
Plus, given Campbell and Co.’s track record at running back, the Cyclones are likely going to be just fine at this position group.
But you do have to wonder a bit.
Sama’s breakout came in bizarre conditions between a Manhattan blizzard and the Cyclones top two rushers essentially being dismissed the week of that K-State game. And he is their most experienced back against Big 12 competition.
It’s enough to have some reservations about this group heading into the season.
Close games
Mouser summed up the Iowa State football experience nicely earlier this month.
“If you watch Iowa State football, you know it’s going to come down to a play here, a play there,” he said. “It’s going to be a one-score game.
“We've had a million of those since we’ve been here, and you have to win the inch here.”
The good part about being in "a million" one-score games is that you’ve always got a chance. You’re in every game.
The bad part about being in "a million" one-score games is that your opponent always has a chance, They’re in every game.
More: Hines: Talent alone not enough for Iowa State football to reach lofty goals
That means clutch plays, random bounces or an official’s flag at the opportune or worst-possible time can mean the difference not just between a first down and third-and-forever, but also wins and losses.
This is also probably the part of the column where I should note that Iowa State’s expected kicker, Kyle Konrardy, has never attempted a collegiate kick.
A parade of close games can make for a difficult place for a football program to live, but it’s the area that Campbell has built his.
This could very well be the area that defines this season for Iowa State. Will they be like the oh-so-close 2019 team that 2-4 in single-score games or the historic 2020 team that went 4-2?
A worst-case scenario for the 2024 season really could wind up being about a worst-case scenario in one-score games.
How it comes together
It seems unlikely that all these questions about the 2024 Iowa State football team would coalesce into a single disastrous season.
There’s too much on the other side of the ledger to suggest a true catastrophe.
So what’s a realistic worst-case scenario mean in wins and losses?
I don’t think a 6-6 regular season is out of the question.
That would mean road losses to Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas (at Arrowhead) and Utah plus a home loss to preseason No. 17 Kansas State along with some sort of combination of home losses (Baylor? UCF?) and/or a road upset (Houston).
There’s a path there that leads to just six wins.
As far as floors go, that’s probably one of the higher ones Iowa State football has had outside of 2021 (when they largely fell to their floor). Sometimes, imagining how bad things could get – and not being totally horrified by the potential – says as much about a team as dreaming up its ceiling.
Which is to say the 2024 Cyclones’ upside outweighs the alternative.
Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000 . F ollow him on X at @TravisHines21.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Hines: Imagining Iowa State football's worst-case scenario for 2024
Local Iowa State
Most Popular
Comments / 0