What happens if RFK Jr drops out? Where polls say his voters will go

Rumors are swirling that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could drop out of the presidential race this week, with reports that his team has courted both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for a possible partnership.

RFK Jr.’s running mate Nicole Shanahan has outright said that the candidate may “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump”.

With FEC filings showing that his campaign donations aren’t keeping up with spending , there are reports that RFK Jr. will step down as early as Friday.

But regardless of whether the third-party candidate will endorse Trump, Harris, or neither — where will his voters go, according to the polls?

RFK Jr. has already lost a big chunk of his support

Polling for RFK Jr. has been notoriously hard to pin down, with significant variation in polling. That’s often the case with smaller, third-party candidates.

Unlike Democrats or Republicans, it can be difficult to identify specific traits or demographics that link those voting for RFK Jr., especially since they are dispersed across the United States.

So here is what we do know about his voters.

Ever since Harris entered the race, RFK Jr. lost a sizeable amount of momentum in the polls, and he hasn’t been able to pick it back up again.

Just before Biden dropped out, RFK Jr. had been polling between 8.5 per cent to 10 per cent of the national vote. Since July 21, however, he has been hovering around just 5 per cent of the vote — and that number seems to be going down.

So what happened? This dip may partly be explained by the fact that voters often turn to third-party candidates for lack of a ‘better option’, and because they want a fresh face. By replacing Biden with Harris, some of those cries for change were answered.

So, who has stuck around?

The latest YouGov/Economist poll, undertaken partly since the Democratic National Convention (August 17 to 20), shows RFK at just 3 per cent of the vote. This poll shows higher numbers of young people supporting the independent candidate, with 5 per cent of under-30s planning to vote for RFK Jr.

Overall, his favorability as a public figure is relatively average, at -8 per cent unfavorable overall. This is better than both Donald Trump (-10 unfavourable) and JD Vance (-12 unfavorable).

His favorability has been highest among Hispanic voters, according to the YouGov poll, at +4 overall.

Third-party voters are unpredictable

The most important question is how much of the Democrat or Republican vote may be freed up by a RFK Jr. exit.

Just 1 per cent of Democrats have said they are voting for RFK Jr. in YouGov’s poll, compared to 3 per cent of Republicans (including leaners). On average, a slightly higher amount of Republicans have supported him thus far. But the polls have been unable to clearly dictate whether more Biden or Trump 2020 voters have come out in support of Kennedy, with polls showing a mix of both.

On average, various polls have shown that there is little to no change when Harris and Trump compete in a head-to-head (without third party candidates); but where there is a minimal boost, it tends to lean in favor of Trump by +1 or +2 points, not the other way around.

Going to a third-party candidate most often means that a voter is disillusioned with the current choices or situation. So it is difficult to say whether these same voters will go back to their previous party allegiances, or in fact be more likely to do the opposite.

In addition, 6 per cent of people are currently saying that they don’t know who to vote for or don’t plan to vote at all in November. It is likely that a portion of RFK Jr. voters, who are unhappy with either Harris or Trump, will abstain from voting.

But others — particularly the genre of RFK Jr. voter who is more on the activist side (think anti-vaxx, distrust of government, and pro-guns) — will still want to have their voices heard.

Stronger margins in New Mexico, Michigan and Nevada

Where RFK Jr.’s decision may really matter most is the swing states.

It can be difficult to pin down the RFK Jr. voters and where exactly they are most concentrated, so numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt due to polling constraints. But a Refield and Wilton poll (August 15) of 10 states shows that RFK Jr. has enjoyed a wider lead in some states than others.

Specifically, he has the strongest support in New Mexico (8 per cent of the vote), Florida (5 per cent), Michigan (5 per cent) and Nevada (5 per cent).

The same poll showed Harris leading in New Mexico, tied with Trump in Nevada and Michigan, and a Trump lead in his chosen state of Florida.

Though it is unclear directly where RFK Jr. voters will turn, the higher margins could have the capacity to turn the tides in these states and others.

If, and when, he makes his decision, a RFK Jr. endorsement for Trump could give some added momentum to the former president’s dwindling national numbers. But whether RFK Jr.’s voters will get in line behind the convicted criminal remains to be seen.