Quiet in the tropics since Debby, but that’s likely to change in September. Here’s why

Nearly three months into the Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Debby has been the only named system to wreak havoc on the Lowcountry and while local forecasters say the tropics will stay quiet through the end of the month, the calm stretch maysoon take the turn early season projections predicted

“Pushing into early September, we do see a high threat, or a high potential for tropical cyclone development over the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are going to become much more favorable,” said Carl Barnes, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Charleston Office.

Barnes said it’s “very likely” tropical cyclones will begin to develop at the start of September and forecasters expect a “much more” active period later in September.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the season peaks on Sept. 10 . Meteorologists with AccuWeather predicted between six and 10 tropical systems could develop in September.

When dynamics and thermodynamics are in tandem, typically mid-August through early October, disturbances like African tropical waves can easily strengthen , the administration said. The recipe for these systems is a combination of minimum wind shear, warmer air temperatures, and increases in ocean temperatures and atmospheric moisture.

Before the season began on June 1, NOAA predicted an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season , with between 17 and 25 named storms and 8 to 13 of those forecast to be hurricanes.

On average 10 tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, NOAA said , but many stay over the ocean. Six of the storms become hurricanes each year.

Most recently, Debby made landfall at 7 a.m. on Aug. 5 as Category 1 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region and then slowly moved up the Southeast coast as a tropical storm, showering Beaufort County with torrential rain and leaving thousands without power.

The next named storm would be Francine.