Cold front slices through New England today; another one comes for weekend

A sharp cold front will push through New England throughout the day today. Ahead of the front will be a hot, humid summery day. Behind this cold front, where the front will pass in the morning, will see much cooler temperatures today with lowering humidity. The cold front may trigger a passing shower or storm, but, for the most part, this will end up being a dry frontal passage.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

Highs across southern New England will push well into the 80s, perhaps touching 90° today while the northern tier of the region may struggle to reach into the low 70s as temperatures remain generally stalled out through the day. Deep cool air advection will take place behind the front, bringing dry, fall-like air into the north today.

Euro showing expected dew points and wind direction around midday today. You can see the deep dry air beginning to spill into New England from Canada:

Photo byWindy.com

The front may clear New England as early as Wednesday evening. By this time, dew points will have fallen into the low 50s across northern New England and southern New England will begin to feel humidity dropping. All of New England will be treated to an early fall-like day on Thursday with highs in the 70s region-wide. Most areas will not climb beyond the low to mid 70s. Dew points will be in the low 50s region-wide as well.

Rain associated with this front has been kind of interesting to determine. While conditions appear favorable for scattered storms in southern New England with instability building ahead of a cold front along with increased humidity, storm activity will likely be low. The main issue will be drying air aloft along with a general lack of forcing. This will make it very difficult for storms to develop.

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has removed New England from today’s thunderstorm outlook altogether. Still, a quick spot shower or storm can't be ruled out, mainly for western Connecticut. Overall, the greatest thunderstorm threat, and Everett threat will be across Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Some very peripheral activity may spill into southwest Connecticut.

Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook for today and tonight:

Photo byStorm Prediction Center

High pressure lingers behind the cold front through Friday. By Saturday, another cold front associated with a low pressure system passing well to the north of New England will approach New England. Moisture ahead of the front will surge, allowing for a widespread line of showers to develop and move across New England from Saturday through Sunday morning.

Photo byNew England Storm Center

Showers will likely break out sometime during the day on Saturday in western New England before sliding into eastern areas for late Saturday into Sunday morning. Periods of moderate rainfall will be possible as the front passes. The front will be fast moving, so while the atmosphere will be very moisture-rich, current forecast rainfall remains around a quarter to a half an inch as the line quickly races away.

Current forecast rainfall from Saturday morning to Sunday morning:

Photo byWeather Prediction Center

Conditions may stay unsettled through Monday as a secondary cold front pushes through, but the weekend as a whole will be far from washed out. There will likely be many more dry hours than wet hours as a whole this weekend. The line of showers coming through on Saturday to Sunday morning will be fast moving and much of New England may not see a bulk of the rain until later Saturday through the overnight hours. Sunday will likely feature a drying trend through the day.

After this weekend, an expansive area of high pressure may slide across the northern tier of the United States, bringing New England drier but cooler air. Below average temperatures are currently favored at least to start next week. A rebound may come into the picture later in the week, but we're starting to get ahead of ourselves now.

Photo byClimate Prediction Center