Josh Allen and the Bills’ Fantasy Challenges in 2024

Even mobile quarterbacks like Buffalo’s Josh Allen need the big guys up front to have fantasy football success. Yes, fantasy football fans. It’s a good idea to pay attention to the offensive line. They don’t score, but they make everything happen for the guys who do. Two of the best places to see this value are Buffalo and Detroit, where Josh Allen and Jared Goff are the respective quarterbacks.

First, let’s look at the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen already enters the 2024 season with question marks. Who will be on the receiving end of his passes? Stefon Diggs plays for the Houston Texans, and the Bills didn’t replace him.

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What Weapons Does Josh Allen Have?

Who does that leave for Josh Allen? Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel. The backups are equally shaky. Josh Allen can throw a bunch of passes to Dalton Kincaid, but it seems unlikely he will have a big year unless one of those receivers has a breakout season.

So here’s the issue. If defensive coordinators aren’t afraid of Allen’s receivers, they’ll do two things. They will use single coverage most of the time, and they’ll keep a spy on him. So fantasy owners who think if Allen doesn’t throw as much, he will run more may wind up disappointed.

Now, let’s say the Bills get a couple of key offensive line injuries. They enter 2024 ranked eighth along the offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus. But what happens if right tackle Spencer Brown goes down? Or center Connor McGovern?

A shaky offensive line means a quarterback has to get the ball out of his hands more quickly. But if the receiving group isn’t capable of quick separation, not only do big plays dry up, but overall stats suffer. Quite frankly, it could be a disaster for Allen.

Now let’s look at the Detroit Lions, who boast the No. 1-ranked offensive line in the NFL. They have lineman superstar Penei Sewell at right tackle, along with the NFL’s top center Frank Ragnow. This makes life so much easier for quarterback Jared Goff.

How good are the Detroit Lions? Check out what NFL offensive line expert Brandon Thorn of Establish the Run and Trench Warfare wrote: “The Lions are coming off of a dominant season as an offensive line unit with right tackle Penei Sewell reaching All-Pro status that landed him the richest deal in league history for an offensive lineman at just 23 years old.” Yep, the Lions loaded up the cash truck because Sewell is that good.

But let’s be clear. Goff ranks No. 14 in the expert consensus rankings on fantasypros.com. Josh Allen ranks No. 1. In no world is anybody telling people to draft Goff over Allen because the Lions have a better offensive line.

But consider this. If the Bills suffer injuries on the line and the Lions stay healthy, that No. 14 to No. 1 gap will close. Goff could sneak into the top 10 conversation, while Josh Allen could slip to the middle of the top 10. Now, it’s not such a crazy difference between the guys.

But the point belongs more to guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Those dudes will eat all season long if the Lions’ offensive line lives up to its potential. And there’s almost no chance of a big season for Shakir or, even Kincaid, or even running back James Cook if the Bills don’t field a quality offensive line group.

Of course, the offensive line isn’t the be-all and end-all of consideration when it comes to drafting in fantasy football. But the point is to pay attention. Little mental edges make the difference when building a strong fantasy roster.

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This article was written by Douglas Fritz.