Jaylen Warren 2024 Fantasy Outlook: Locked to Smash

Entering his age-27 season, undrafted running back out of Oklahoma State and Utah State, Jaylen Warren, will be playing his third season for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Primarily making his mark at Oklahoma State in his final college year, he amassed 1,441 yards from scrimmage and 11 TDs, appearing on top-10 Big 12 leaderboards in seven categories. The Steelers have found an undrafted gem, and now have Warren in the last year of his UDFA contract worth $2.57 million.

Jaylen Warren has played alongside teammate RB Najee Harris–one year his senior–for his two-year career. Once, Harris had one of the largest workloads in the NFL, but Warren has progressively eaten into both ground and air work.

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Jaylen Warren 2023 Stats and Fantasy Production

Jaylen Warren played a full healthy season, though he was not listed as the starter in any of them. With 784 yards on 149 carries and 370 air yards on 61 catches and 74 targets, Warren’s effective team participation doubled from year one to two.

Although Harris still outpaced him in carries each year, this makes two years running in which Warren has sapped carries from Harris’ once-elite workload. As well, Warren took over as the more effective pass-catcher out of the backfield. The offensive snap share favored Harris 53.13% to Warren’s 48.46%.

Warren has contributed 1163 yards and five TDs on the ground and 584 yards and no scores as a receiver. Outperforming his ADP two years running, including the RB25 overall finish last year, Warren is poised to make it another year running as a strong fantasy contributor.

Using data from FantasyPros, Warren finished 2023 as the RB22 in PPR and RB30 in standard. Warren bested his ADP even in standard, but it’s clear that his true value comes from the receiving game, where he is an especially valuable asset in PPR leagues.

Currently, Jaylen Warren is going as the RB28 in half-PPR, 16 overall spots after teammate Harris. That gap is a bit closer overall in best ball, with less than half a round between the two, but the script is flipped in PPR-friendly DraftKings, where Warren is the first Pittsburgh RB off the board.

Jaylen Warren 2024 Fantasy Outlook

Overall, drafters are treating both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren similarly to last year, but a bit blindly to overall trends. Both are being drafted at a lower cost than their 2023 fantasy finishes, but only PPR best ball drafters biting on the more talented receiver first.

With three consecutive years of decreased carries and targets, Harris’ arrow is pointing down, while Warren is on the ascent. Listed as the starter all of last year, the Steelers indicate that Harris is once again on top of the depth chart. However, the field presence between the two backs is closing fast, with Warren taking the more valuable looks.

FantasyPros project Warren for 702.7 yards on 146.7 carries and 331.6 yards from 48.5 receptions. ESPN projects 600 yards on 125 carries and 371 yards on 54 receptions. This is going to be a hard offense to puzzle out with a QB rotation likely.

Warren is ranked higher than Harris due to his rushing ability, with 152 carries. There is a real chance that the Russell Wilson / Justin Fields combo checks down to RBs at an extreme rate. In 2023, the Broncos led the league in RB targets with 32.1% and the Bears were 9th with 22.2%. The Steelers already love passing to their backs, but a Wilson-led offense would be huge for RB targets.

There are plenty of question marks on the industry projections for Jaylen Warren, which are pessimistic across the board and only have him regressing. This is while simultaneously lauding Warren’s talent and my projections put him at RB22 in half-PPR.

Final Thoughts

The quarterback situation is pretty terrible in Pittsburgh, and a rising tide lifts all ships. Steelers’ receivers are going to be too big of a headache to draft, but the RBs stand to benefit, especially Warren, and especially if Wilson plays the majority of the season.

The one thing that could go wrong is if Wilson underperforms and the Steelers look to Fields, the younger QB who at least has more long-term potential. Warren is the younger, more explosive player who has more valuable touches and almost identical snap share.

Drafted at the end of the 7th as a flex player, Jaylen Warren has high-end RB2 upside and is a perfect fit for zero- and hero-RB teams. All he has to do is repeat last year and he’s a lock to smash ADP. Jaylen Warren is currently my most-owned running back in Best Ball.

Due to a hamstring injury he suffered in preseason Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills, it is concerning for his Week 1 status. Warren is slated to be out for multiple weeks, as Harris would be the lead-back.

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Article originally written by Frank Wees