Storm tracker: NHC tracking 4 disturbances in Atlantic; heavy rain forecast for Gulf Coast

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking four tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean , including one in the Gulf of Mexico that's expected to bring heavy rain to portions of the Gulf Coast, the agency said in an advisory Friday morning.

There has been a surprising lull in hurricane activity in the Atlantic over the last few weeks, and the numerous disturbances, but no active storms, continues to be unusual.

No named storms have formed since August 12. Not since 1968 has there been a stretch this long with no hurricane formations between August and September, said Phil Klotzbach, senior hurricane scientist at Colorado State University, where Bill Gray pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasting 40 years ago.

This lull in activity, despite predictions for a hyperactive season , has surprised and puzzled scientists who author seasonal outlooks. Most forecasts called for up to 25 named storms. Only five have formed so far, including three hurricanes.

Where are the predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they're still coming

Four tropical disturbances brewing in Atlantic Ocean

The first system being tracked by the NHC, labeled as Invest 90L, is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of the Gulf Coast this weekend.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system began diminishing Thursday night, the NHC said, and winds are expected to remain "unfavorable for significant development of this system" as it moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended its Flood Watch through Saturday morning for portions of southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast, with 2-4 inches of rain possible and locally higher amounts "not out of the question." The NWS says the greatest threat will be across urban metro areas south of I-10/I-12, including New Orleans, Gulfport and Biloxi.

The second system, labeled as Invest L99, is currently located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The NHC said the system is "increasingly taking on a non-tropical structure" and that its opportunity to acquire "subtropical characteristics" appears to be decreasing.

The system's low is expected to move over cooler waters late Friday or early Saturday, and further development is not expected thereafter, the NHC said. Forecasters give the system a 30 percent chance of development in the next seven days.

The third tropical disturbance is currently producing "disorganized showers and thunderstorms" near the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The NHC said the system is forecast to move across Central America and southeastern Mexico on Friday, with some slow development possible over the weekend as the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The fourth and final disturbance being tracked by the NHC is currently an "elongated trough of low pressure" over the eastern tropical Atlantic that is producing "minimal shower and thunderstorm activity."

The NHC said development, if any, should be "slow to occur" during the early part of next week while the disturbance moves northwestward or northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic storm tracker

Hurricane activity could be cranking up

While it’s looking less likely that 2024 will be one for the record books, experts still expect the season to be busier than normal. The season typically peaks around September 10 , but that leaves 12 weeks to go until it ends December 1.

“From our perspective right now, things are still on track,” Dan Harnos, a meteorologist with the team at the Climate Prediction Center who prepares the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook, told USA TODAY Thursday.

Conditions are still favorable, with very warm and record warm ocean temperatures across much of the Atlantic, Harnos said. “There’s plenty of room for the tide to turn with all the warm water out there. Things could change quickly.”

“I don’t think anybody expected a break in late August like this,” Harnos said. “But we have had a decent amount of activity and I think it will pick up at some point. It’s just a question of what the numbers look like in the end.”

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@gannett.com or @dinahvp.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm tracker: NHC tracking 4 disturbances in Atlantic; heavy rain forecast for Gulf Coast