9 Group of Five programs that could make 2024 College Football Playoff

9 Group of Five programs that could make 2024 College Football Playoff

With Week 0 officially upon us, a big topic of conversation is the new 12-team College Football Playoff, which will be implemented this year. In case you missed it, here are our preseason CFP predictions . But today, I strictly want to highlight nine Group of 5 candidates that I believe should deserve consideration! Let’s dive into it!

The Favorites?

Who are the clear favorites? I list a couple of them below.

Liberty

As I wrote in the Conference USA preview , if Liberty doesn’t steamroll their conference, something catastrophic has happened. Sure, anything can happen on any given Saturday, but Liberty’s schedule presents little challenges, and thus deems them a favorite to make the playoff. Their most difficult game will come against Appalachian State on the road on Sept. 28–a big game for both teams. Kaidon Salter is one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of 5 and they return most of their playmakers on both ends outside of reigning CUSA Defensive Player of the Year in Tyren Dupree.

Boise State

Spencer Danielson did a heck of a job after Andy Avalos got canned midseason last year. He will return the majority of his production from a team that cruised over a well-coached UNLV team in the Mountain West Title game. Among those returnees are Ashton Jeanty , one of the best running backs in the entire country; star receiver Latrell Caples, who missed 2023 with a torn Achilles; All-American defensive end Ahmed Hassanein; and All-MW linebacker Andrew Simpson. This squad is stacked with talent.

Other Top Candidates?

Even though it’s not a big drop-off between tiers, these groups of teams are still the presumptive favorites in their respective conferences.

Memphis

I think Memphis is the best team in the American Athletic Conference, with all due respect to UTSA (who lost Frank Harris ), Tuleane and South Florida. It’s not a big gap, by any means. Memphis will have an opportunity to clinch their first AAC Title since 2019. They return 17 starters–including 10 on offense–and should be better on both sides of the ball if they can stay healthy. They will have to go on the road against UTSA, USF and Tulane, however, which could be pivotal swing games.

Miami (OH)

I’m lower on Tulane than the consensus based on how much production they lost. As a result, I have Miami coming out of the MAC. While I’m not sure its defense will be as elite as it was last year, they will have reigning MAC DPOY in Matthew Salopek back plus second-leading tackler Ty Wise back. The Redhawks have one of the conference’s top offensive lines and quarterback continuity. Chuck Martin has another program that could win 9-10-plus games in 2024.

Appalachian State

App. State is the top team in the SBC East. They’re going to be tested early in non-conference play, but having a chance to win at least two of Clemson (road), East Carolina (road) and South Alabama (home) could help them in the long haul if it’s able to take care of business in conference play. Shawn Clark’s team has made the SBC Title game in three of his first four seasons with an explosive offense and experience in the trenches.

Underdogs Worth Considering:

Texas State

I’ll be honest: I like Texas State more than App. State and the majority of these teams above. I think GJ Kinne’s a rising star in the coaching industry, and explosive offense wins football games. He turned the Bobcats into one of the nation’s most electrifying offenses and they could very well top that production with James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud . I love them to break double-digit wins and potentially win the SBC in 2024.

Bowling Green

I’m buying into Bowling Green, who’s improved their win total each of the last four seasons. This year’s Falcons team is the best under six-year head coach Scot Loeffler. Their ground game with Terion Stewart should remain elite while I’m bullish their defense remains productive, despite losing two captains in the middle.

UNLV

Am I crazy for having UNLV on this list? Maybe. Do I think they supplant Boise atop the Mountain West? Probably not. They have legitimate expectations for the first time in nearly a half-century. That could be dangerous to buy into, especially in Sin City. Though I’m very bullish on Brennan Marion’s Go-Go offense while being a little less optimistic on its defense, which needs to improve. If the Runnin’ Rebels are able to win 9-10 games while capturing their first-ever MW Title, there’s a world where they back their way into the conversation.

Arkansas State

If you erase what happened against Oklahoma and Memphis, they averaged 33.0 points and outscored opponents by nearly a touchdown per game over their final 10 regular season games. I don’t love having to play Texas State, who they beat 77-31 last year, on the road.

Verdict: Texas State … or Boise State

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