Melania Trump might not return to D.C. full-time for a second term

If the Trumps return for round two , don't expect to see more of Melania in D.C. — or at all, really.

Why it matters: Love 'em or hate 'em, tracking a first family's comings and goings around town is an extreme sport in D.C. Extra points if you run into one of the big names yourself while leaving Le Dip or SoulCycle .

Zoom in: Unlike the Obamas and Bidens , the Trumps largely avoided jaunts into hometown Washington. Melania was so atypically reclusive for a first lady that a long-running whisper campaign questioned whether she lived at the White House or with her parents in the 'burbs.

• So the prospect of her rolling in for a second full-time stint in the East Wing? Doubtful, according to the handful of Melania-ologists Axios surveyed.
• More likely: jetting between Palm Beach (where she's spent the past four years) and New York (where tongues are wagging about Baron maybe attending NYU), coming to the White House only for ceremonial undertakings like state dinners or special events.

What they're saying: Mary Jordan , a Washington Post associate editor and author of a book about Melania, puts it simply: "Melania does what Melania wants."

• This makes her "stand out in history from any other first lady," says Jordan. "Her view is unelected, not paid."

Since leaving the East Wing in 2021, Melania sightings remain scarce.

• She was absent from the courtroom as the Stormy Daniels hush money saga ended with Trump's conviction. And she's been mostly AWOL during his campaign .
• " She's distancing herself even more from her husband and from the Washington social political scene," says Kate Andersen Brower , who's written several books about the White House and first ladies. "I mean, she clearly hated being in Washington."

What we're watching: Fashion politics. Expect plenty of statement-making outfits instead of actual statements, à la "I really don't care. Do U?"

• While Melania gravitated toward flowy and feminine silhouettes at the outset of her husband's administration, by the end she was opting for clothes with sharp shoulders and rigid buttons — "almost like an armor," says Kate Bennett , a former CNN White House correspondent who wrote a book about the former first lady.

The intrigue: Wherever she lands, there's consensus that Melania would likely revisit her Be Best campaign.

• And this time, she would ensure she has a larger, "better," and "more qualified" staff, Jordan tells Axios. (Melania had an atypically small staff, and there were reports of her delayed move-in to the White House putting her at a disadvantage.)
• "Now having seen how this works, she would just be wiser and she would be more vocal and more demanding about what the first lady's office should get."

The other side: A spokesperson for Melania didn't respond to Axios' request for comment.

Team Trump, meanwhile, has been promising more Melania moments.

• When the former president was asked about his wife's absence from the campaign trail in February, Trump acknowledged her private nature but said she was invested. "She wants to see this country really succeed. She loves the country."
• The following month, though, when asked if we could expect to see more Melania, her answer was totally, well, Melania : "Stay tuned."

Go deeper: Donald Trump wants to "take over" D.C.

• These could be the new Trump hangouts in D.C.