Democrats look down ballot to flip state legislatures in key swing states

CHICAGO — While much of the news coverage has centered on the race for the White House and which party will control Washington, Democrats are plotting an overlooked but aggressive campaign to reshape the power dynamics in state capitals across the country.

Republicans control 57 legislative chambers, while Democrats have majorities in 41. Both sides are waging battles for legislative control in states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where just a handful of races could make a difference. And they are putting millions of dollars behind their efforts.

The Washington Examiner spent time with all four delegations in Chicago as they gathered for the Democratic National Convention , discussing their strategy and hopes in races that continue to fly under the radar.

This year, Democrats believe they have their best shot in more than half a century to take control of the Arizona legislature after getting close in 2018, 2020, and 2022. If Democrats pick up a seat in each chamber, they’d be forced to come up with a power-sharing agreement. If they flip two seats in each chamber, it would put them in charge of the legislature for the first time in 60 years.

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has sparred with the state legislature frequently, working to veto conservative legislation, specifically on abortion. The highest-profile fight came this spring when a near-total abortion ban from 1864 was reinstated by the state Supreme Court, only to be narrowly repealed by the legislature with the help of Hobbs.

Joshua Polacheck, an Arizona DNC delegate and a candidate for the Arizona Corporate Commission, said he’s been pounding the pavement, door-knocking in the extreme heat with Kevin Volk, who is running to represent Arizona House of Representatives District 17, in Tucson.

“I’ve probably met somewhere between [10,000] and 20,000 people over the six months I’ve been campaigning,” Polacheck said, speaking with the Washington Examiner at an Arizona state delegation breakfast at the convention last week. “Kevin Volk has actually gone through pairs of shoes — you can actually see the soles of his shoes that he’s worn all the way through.”

“It’s about having that one-on-one conversation with voters, hearing their concerns, presenting our values and vision, and convincing them that under Democratic control, the state is going to be better,” Polacheck said.

Daniel Hernandez, a former member of the Arizona House and the intern who helped save former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in the minutes after she was critically wounded in a 2011 shooting, said he believes this could be their year to flip the legislature.

“Arizona is a battleground from top to bottom — from the state legislature right on to the very top of the ticket with Harris and Walz,” Hernandez, another DNC delegate, said.

“The Arizona state legislature, which has not had Democratic control since the 1960s in the House and one term of split power in the 2000s — Americans and Arizonans, I think, are quite ready for the change at the legislature,” he said.

To win the majority in the Arizona legislature, Democrats must also play defense and hold on to seats they recently flipped. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has already directed $354,000 to 12 races in the state to increase the party’s chances of taking over control.

“That’s why we are seeing so much excitement, that’s why we are seeing some of the strongest candidates,” Hernandez said. “I served in the legislature for six years with a lot of these people, and these folks are ready to start implementing the solutions that Arizonans want and need.”

Democrats leave more races contested than Republicans nationally. In Arizona, 33% of all races were uncontested in 2022. This cycle, Democrats believe they’ve been able to recruit more candidates, specifically in races that challenge Republicans who have denied the results of the 2020 presidential election. Last cycle, every Republican in a statewide race that had embraced former President Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud lost.

“We were close in 2022, except that we didn’t recruit enough candidates. Mathematically, we couldn’t have taken a majority in the House or the Senate because we didn’t have enough candidates,” said Adrian Fontes, the Arizona secretary of state, in an interview with the Washington Examiner outside a state delegation meeting in Chicago. “So, I think we’ve got a great chance. I’m not speaking as the secretary but as an elected Democrat.”

Fontes pointed to an abortion measure that will be on the ballot in the state, in which voters will decide whether they want to protect access to abortion in the Arizona Constitution. The Arizona Supreme Court ruled last week that the ballot measure is valid.

“I think the Republicans are very, very worried about the electoral push, and they should be, particularly with abortion on the ballot and now a highly energized base, when it comes to the top of the ticket,” Fontes said. “We’ve got a better shot than we’ve ever had.”

Democrats are playing defense in the Michigan House, where they previously flipped the entire legislature. Democrats hold a 56-54 advantage in the state House and a 20-18 advantage in the state Senate. However, the upper chamber is not up for election this year.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), in her second term, has overseen a Democratic surge in the state. Since Democrats took statewide control in 2022, they’ve passed major policy priorities such as abortion protections, gun restrictions, and repealing "right-to-work."

Sen. Winnie Brooks, the majority leader of the Michigan Senate, urged delegates not to forget significant state legislative races appearing further down the ballot this cycle.

“In this presidential year, we have every reason to be enthusiastic about the top of the ticket, but we cannot forget that state legislatures are responsible for — and actively deciding the rights and freedoms that voters hold most dear,” she said, speaking to the delegation in Chicago last week.

“Top of mind for me, this cycle, is keeping the state House blue,” she said as the delegation stood and applauded.

“In just 20 months of our trifecta, the House and Senate Democrats, together with the governor, voted yes on restoring reproductive rights in Michigan. We have voted yes and prevented gun violence, with safe storage, red flag laws, and universal background checks,” she said. “We voted yes and added LGBTQ protections into our civil rights law.”

Aileen Pettinger, a Michigan DNC delegate, said the state legislature races are critical for the state and emphasized that Democrats capitalized on the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion rights, which upset even some right-leaning voters.

“It helped us in 2022. I feel like we are in a blue tsunami right now. Just get ready — we are rolling right through,” Pettinger said. “We’ve already done it in Michigan, and we are going to continue to do it in Michigan. We know how to work hard.”

Pennsylvania has a split legislature. Democrats have control of the House by one seat, while Republicans are in control of the Senate by six seats. The Keystone State is also considered a battleground state in the presidential election and features a competitive Senate race that could have implications down the ballot.

There are about a dozen competitive House districts that both sides are targeting. While Democrats are looking at seats in major metropolitan areas such as Philadelphia, Republicans are focusing on western Pennsylvania, where voters have backed Trump in the past. In 2020, Allegheny County, which includes the city of Pittsburgh, was crucial in putting President Joe Biden over the top.

“We flipped the statehouse two years ago, and so we have two target races in Allegheny County that Republicans are looking at,” said Sam Hens-Greco, chairman of the Allegheny County Democrats. “I think we’ll be OK with those two races — they are phenomenal candidates.”

Democrats are pointing to recent elections of statewide officials such as Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) last cycle. Even though Democrats have control of the House and the governor’s mansion, their key priorities have stalled in the GOP-run Senate.

Republicans control both chambers and Democrats recognize that retaking the majority in either, particularly in the Senate, will be a major obstacle. The state Supreme Court recently ruled that legislative maps needed to be redrawn in a way that’s less favorable for Republicans. The new maps will have their first test in November, when all of the Assembly and half the Senate seats will be up for reelection.

Democrats are working to retake the majority in the Assembly this cycle and are running candidates in 97 of the 99 districts. In comparison, Republicans have candidates running in 84 districts.

Sarah Godlewski, the Wisconsin secretary of state, said the fall of Roe v. Wade is a motivating factor this cycle.

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“Half of our room now has fewer rights than their mothers and grandmothers because they overturned Roe v. Wade,” she said, speaking to the delegation at a breakfast meeting last week.

“This November, we’re going to make sure that the Republican legislature understands that you need to listen to our voice and these policies that you have been avoiding for so long that so many Wisconsinites believe in — say goodbye to those extremist days because Wisconsin Democrats are coming back and taking back the legislature,” she said.