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Higher rain chances Thursday! Detailed look at the tropics
By Scot Pilié,
2024-06-26
NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — Another hot one today! Little less hot Thursday as rain chances will be more scattered with localized heavy rain possible at times.
Rain chances will be spotty/scattered through the weekend with possible a touch lower rain chances next week, which could lead to more Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings.
In the tropics…
National Hurricane Center is now highlighting two areas to watch over the next 7 days.
It’s the second disturbance in the East-Central Atlantic that is gaining a lot of attention from global forecast model guidance, so we will discuss that area more thoroughly.
First: Invest 94L in the Caribbean remains unorganized. Low, 20% chance of tropical formation in the Western Caribbean & Southern Gulf through the weekend into early next week. Rainy conditions in Cancun/Cozumel & Belize this weekend.
Second: NHC is now giving a medium, 40% chance of development over the next 7 days in the central Atlantic. Expect these percentages to increase as model support continues to highlight increased odds of formation. While rare in this region of the Atlantic in late June/early July, with record warm water temperatures, there is credence to this potential.
Interests in the Leeward Islands/Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the development of this disturbance as impacts could arrive by early next week.
Saharan dust may slow development. However, environmental conditions appear quite conductive for development into a tropical storm other than the dust.
Long-range projections are highly uncertain, steering looks to move this system generally westward through the next 5 days. However, in terms of strength, model solutions range from this system going *poof* to this being a hurricane in the Caribbean in ~7 days.
Just something to casually keep an eye on for now. Remember, this system is 10+ days from EVER being anywhere close to the United States. We have a lot of time to watch this system. Don’t get tropics fatigue in June.
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