Sunday afternoon tropical update

NEW ORLEANS ( WGNO ) — Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in the Gulf of Mexico right off the upper Texas coastline. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue over coastal Texas and Louisiana for the next few days. Should you be worried? Not, necessarily.

The main hazard that this system could bring with it is a chance for a flash flooding scenario to occur. This would occur over areas that generally have poor drainage and are also in a band of training rain. Training is a term used to describe a line of showers and thunderstorms that repeatedly form up over the same location in a short period of time. Similar to how a ‘train’ follows a track.

There is a low chance that this system will develop any further from where it stands now. The Nation Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance of development over the next 2 days. By Tuesday the disturbance will move inland and continue to lose structure.

Now onto something worth talking a bit more about. Disturbance 2 is making an appearance several miles from the Lesser Antilles with a projected track to the WNW. It should enter the eastern Carribean by Tuesday.

This will NOT impact us in the short term, BUT it is something to keep in the back of your mind going into next week. I’d say after the Holiday weekend is all said and done, do a base check on your hurricane kits. We are several days out from any potential impacts from Disturbance 2, but it never hurts to grab an extra case of water or two at the store in the meantime.

By the middle of next week environmental conditions look more favorable for development. If the storm were to gain enough organization to be named, Francine would be her name. The name Francine was recently added to the list of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones since the name Florence was retired in 2018 after causing catastrophic damage in the Carolinas.

The National Hurricane center is giving this Disturbance a 40% chance of development in the next seven days, a medium chance. However, with strong high pressure to our east steering this system into the incredibly warm gulf waters, I would expect this percentage to be higher. There is still lots of time between now and formation, nothing to stress about now, as there is still lots of uncertainty between forecast models.

Stay up to date with the latest news, weather and sports by downloading the WGNO app on the Apple or Google Play stores and by subscribing to the WGNO newsletter .

Latest Posts

• Popular weight loss drug reduced risk of COVID deaths in new study
• Southern Decadence Parade wraps up in the French Quarter
• Cotton says he’s ‘open to’ Trump’s IVF proposal
• WATCH: Paul Finebaum previews USC vs. LSU in the WGNO Sports Zone
• Jan. 6 sentences under fresh scrutiny as Supreme Court fallout persists

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to WGNO.