Why Jannik Sinner is not a shoo-in to win 2024 U.S. Open

Of the four men's semifinalists at the 2024 U.S. Open, only World No.1 Jannik Sinner has previously won a major title. As the only one to taste grand-slam glory, the Italian has an 81.8 percent probability rate of hoisting the trophy on Sunday.

How did we get to that number? Over the last 20 years, nine of the 11 men in a similar situation went on to win that particular major. The only two players to defy the odds? Rafael Nadal, with his first French Open title in 2005, and Andy Murray, who captured the 2012 U.S. Open crown for his first slam. While Murray had been in a major final previously, at the 2010 Australian Open, a 19-year-old Nadal was an unknown commodity playing at Roland Garros for the first time in his career.

Will we see a first-time winner?

This year's U.S. Open final four is almost a crapshoot since the other three men, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Jack Draper, have never reached a major final, let alone win one. Fritz and Draper are in their first-ever semifinals and Tiafoe is in his second. The degree of inexperience facing Sinner is almost unprecedented and puts all the more pressure on him to clear the field and prevail.

The counterpoint here is that, of all the four slams, the U.S. Open has the history of producing the most first-time winners. Lest we forget, the period between 2020 and 2022 produced three first-time major winners in Carlos Alcaraz (2022), Daniil Medvedev (2021) and Dominic Thiem (2020). A similar trend existed in earlier decades when Marin Cilic (2014), Juan Martín del Potro (2009) and Andy Roddick (2003) won their first and only majors at Flushing Meadows.

While history is on Sinner's side, the unpredictability of the U.S. Open gives the untested trio more than just a glimmer of hope. Sinner refused them lightly after breezing to the semis on Wednesday.

"Anyone who makes it to the semi-finals deserves to be there," Sinner said after beating Medvedev. "There are no [easy] wins here, you always have to find a solution against each opponent."

Sinner will face Draper in the second semifinal on Friday. The Italian is in the middle of a magical 2024 that has seen him maintain a 48-5 record, including two ATP 1000 title wins and the Australian Open.