ECR stands for "Expert Consensus Ranking," which means the average rankings of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site). This ongoing positional serieswillhighlight some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
[QBs I like more/less | RBs I like more | RBs I like less | WRs I like more]
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
ECR: WR3 vs. My Rank: WR4
I love Chase and rank him highly, but I'm slightly under his ECR. There's certainly a bull case, as Chase may play more in the slot this season when the Bengals could pass more. However, when nitpicking/examining an important first-round pick, Chase has mild concerns as well, namely his quarterback and system.
Joe Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever experienced before. He was having "good days and bad days" in May and still isn't throwing three days in a row. Burrow has a sneaky extensive injury history, and he's also become a check-down artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate. He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season, and reports out of Bengals camp suggest more of the same in 2024. He's managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while consciously throwing underneath far more.
Chase's aDOT, yards per route run, yards per target and rate of explosive plays have all declined each of the last two seasons, so give me Justin Jefferson over him. Chase faces the Ravens, Steelers and Browns defenses 35% of his games, while Jefferson gets to play indoors.
Chase's best season by yards per game (87.2) and yards per route run (2.51) would both be Jefferson's worst season!
Tee Higgins is finally healthy, so the difference in target competition is dramatic. Moreover, Chase is currently "holding in" at Bengals camp as he awaits a contract extension that will reset the WR market. Take this exercise with a grain of salt, but if you remove his Week 4 explosion last season, Chase was the WR27 in fantasy points per game (11.2).
It's a close call, but I'm drafting Jefferson over Chase.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
ECR: WR10 vs. My Rank: WR13
Adams may be on the downside of his career, but he still ranked second in the league in targets (175), target share (33.1%), target rate (31.1%) and red-zone targets (29) last season; he ranked first in air yards share (44.2%) and first-read target rate (40.6%) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (22.0).
However, Adams' fantasy production has dropped three straight seasons, and wide receivers have historically seen a 34% decline in baseline production during their 11th year in the league. Adams' yards per route run versus man coverage has fallen from 3.06 to 2.00 to 1.66 over the last two seasons, when he's started to show real signs of decline since joining Las Vegas. Adams was the WR5 by expected fantasy points per game last year but finished as just the WR17, and his uncatchable target rate is unlikely to improve with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell battling for Las Vegas' quarterback job (good luck stacking to the best ball bros).
The Raiders managed just 4.9 yards per play last season, and Antonio Pierce wants to run the football while playing slow. Teammate Jakobi Meyersmatched Adams in top-12 WR weeks (four) last season, and the Raiders took Brock Bowers with the 13th pick of the draft. Adams has a nice floor given his target projection, but he's 31 years old and in a bad situation with possibly bottom-three QB play.
Adams is on the wrong side of his career to be drafted as a top-20 overall pick.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ECR: WR14 vs. My Rank: WR20
Evans' ECR and ADP are a bit inflated with him coming off a monster season. He's no doubt a threat to catch double-digit touchdowns again like he has three of the past four years, but he'll turn 31 years old this month and is entering his 11th year in the league. That alone is concerning for someone going as a top-15 WR, but his situation will also be different in 2024.
Tampa Bay lost offensive guru Dave Canales to Carolina, who just helped Baker Mayfield have easily the best season of his career. Chris Godwin will also be much healthier and more involved in Tampa Bay's offense in 2024, including more work out of the slot. Godwin should see touchdown regression in 2024, and there's a reason he had a similar ADP to Evans during last year's fantasy drafts. Moreover, rookie Jalen McMillan is an underrated prospect who's impressed in camp and Mayfield recently called "a stud."
Evans shouldn’t be ranked ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers or Amari Cooper.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
ECR: WR21 vs. My Rank: WR26
I'm irrationally high on Anthony Richardson's fantasy value, but Pittman averaged half as many fantasy points during AR's four starts last season compared to Gardner Minshew. He'll continue to benefit from Shane Steichen's RPO-heavy scheme and should eat up targets, but Pittman loses as much fantasy value as any WR in the league when scoring moves to 0.5 PPR.
Another concern regarding Pittman is his target competition. Josh Downs nearly matched his production while sharing the field together last year, even recording more receiving yards and scoring more fantasy points before suffering a knee injury in Week 9. Downs has shown good chemistry with Richardson and is a Reception Perception favorite. Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain in Wednesday's practice, but he's expected to be ready close to Week 1. Assuming the injury doesn't linger, Downs is a threat to Pittman in a run-heavy offense that will spread around targets.
Moreover, rookie Adonai Mitchell is a standout athlete who easily could've gone much higher in the draft, so Pittman's 2024 usage could look different than last season. He's mistakenly ranked ahead of a handful of receivers with higher fantasy ceilings, especially in 0.5 PPR.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
ECR: WR44 vs. My Rank: WR53
Addison flashed at times as a rookie, but his overall profile was not good. He earned a lowly 15% target per route run rate with Justin Jefferson off the field, which is Justin Watson territory. Addison ran the 12th most routes in the NFL last season but averaged just 6.9 expected 0.5 PPR fantasy points with Jefferson healthy. He scored 4.2 more touchdowns than his usage would indicate, which was the third-highest among wide receivers. Addison was also a Big Play Merchant as a rookie, as his 1D/RR was in just the 44th percentile.
The Vikings also suffered a downgrade at quarterback with Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy taking over for Kirk Cousins. Addison is also looking at a possible suspension (which has helped lower his previously even more egregious ADP), so there's a chance he misses multiple games in 2024 as well.
I'd rather draft Josh Palmer (ECR: WR53), who's going three rounds later.
Most Popular
Comments / 0