Major Hurricane Beryl's Influence: How it could impact Arizona's monsoon season

According to the Arizona Weatherman, Major Hurricane Beryl made category 5 in the Caribbean Sea last night, making it the strongest hurricane in the month of July. The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current forecast is that the hurricane will move towards the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday, July 5th, and then into the Gulf of Mexico. This article will discuss where the tropical system will likely make landfall and the impacts on Arizona’s monsoon.

Hurricane Beryl satellite imagery 2 Jul 2024.Photo byWindy.com

The below image of spaghetti model data from Tropical Tidbits shows that there is a good consensus for the hurricane to track into Yucatan, but once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, the models diverge. This is typical towards the end of the run, 5-7 days out. This data indicates a possible landfall between northern Mexico and Texas. However, this data consensus suggests a more likely hit for northern Mexico on Sunday, 7 July 2024, as Tropical Storm Beryl.

Spaghetti model depiction of potential tracks for Hurricane Beryl.Photo byTropical Tidbits

Depending on where Beryl ultimately makes landfall will determine the overall impacts on Arizona and our monsoon thunderstorms. If the storm takes the less likely path to recurve northward into Texas, expect less to no impacts for added tropical moisture into Arizona. However, if it takes the more likely path into northern Mexico, Arizona has a better chance of some of that tropical moisture moving into eastern Arizona from Monday evening, 8 July, into Thursday, 11 July 2024. Currently, the long-range models do not indicate significant tropical moisture in Arizona, but as this tropical system gets closer to the Yucatan, they will have a better resolution of the track and impacts.

Therefore, the Arizona Weatherman will be watching this system and will provide further details and forecasts as it approaches potentially impacting Arizona. Stay tuned for more updates on Hurricane Beryl as it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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