When will the Arizona monsoon thunderstorms return?

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the Arizona monsoon thunderstorms will return after the hellish hot temperatures scorch the Arizona landscape through this week. In all seriousness, the upper-level high pressure over the state will impact our high temperatures and drier-than-normal pattern until this weekend.

Model data 500 mb High pressure to dominate over Arizona on Thursday 11 July 2024.Photo byWindy.com

As depicted in the above image, an upper-level high pressure will dominate the state from Monday, July 8, 2024, through Friday, July 12, 2024. Moving into the weekend, this high will shift eastward, providing an opening for the monsoon moisture to return to the state over the weekend. However, as this high-pressure dome dominates the state, daily temperature records are expected to be broken, particularly for the southern part of the state. Temperatures may exceed the record of 115 F for Phoenix and 111 F for Tucson this week.

Model data for potential thunderstorms for Arizona on Saturday 13 Jul 2024.Photo byWindy.com

As this upper-level high moves eastward into the weekend, the monsoon pattern will shift back into place and allow more tropical moisture to move into the state. This will create more favorable chances for thunderstorms to increase in coverage. Expect the potential for increased convection over the Mogollon Rim and southern Arizona in the afternoon hours starting on Saturday, July 13. This pattern appears to be in place for the next several days as well.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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