East Pacific Tropics influence on the Arizona monsoon through the month of July

According to the Arizona Weatherman, the East Pacific Tropical region will have a minimal impact on the Arizona monsoon in the near term; however, it looks like more tropical cyclone influence is possible later in the month. The East Pacific basin has been off to a slow start and has not impacted the monsoon up to this point.

Current Sea Surface Temperatures in the East Pacific basin.Photo byWindy.com

The sea surface temperatures are currently running in the 84 F to 86 F range, and we are in an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral pattern. This means we have enough energy to work with, and it is about average for this time of year, with no major ENSO impacts one way or another. However, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) indicates downward vertical motion from the 200 mb upper levels, which means that tropical cyclone development from July 8 through July 20 will have less favorable conditions for development. Nevertheless, this pattern changes to upward vertical motion by the end of the month. This is good news for increasing the chances of cyclone development.

200 mb MJO pattern for the East Pacific basin for July 2024.Photo byNOAA

Additionally, the East Pacific basin has been climatologically behind this season. According to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) data, by 8 July, there should have been, on average, three named storms, but we have only had one so far, Tropical Storm Aletta. Therefore, we are still two storms behind by this time of the season. This trend looks to continue into the third week of July, but the MJO change can set up better conditions by the end of the month.

According to the longer-range modeling data, there is a promising possibility of more systems forming by the month's end. The modeling data indicates that the next possible Topical Storm may form along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) after 18 July. This one is looking to be too far south to enhance the Arizona monsoon. However, there is a second system after 22 July that may form and move further northward and may even become a hurricane based on the Dvorak scale of pressure. So, there is some hope of tropical cyclone development by the end of the month that may impact and add tropical moisture to the state.

It is still too far out to provide an exact number of tropical systems, their strength, and overall movement, but the Arizona Weatherman will continue to monitor the East Pacific basin for future development and the potential impacts on the Arizona monsoon.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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