Texas Longhorns vs. Colorado State Rams Prediction

Texas’ move to the SEC is one of the stories of the 2024 season. Before it gets into its hotly anticipated conference schedule, or its Week 2 game at Michigan, the Longhorns will host Colorado State out of the Mountain West. Jay Norvell, a former Texas wide receivers coach, has improved the Rams steadily over the last two years. It may be bowl or bust in Fort Collins, though a Week 1 win in Austin probably isn’t one they should pencil in.

The Longhorns set themselves up for an incredible level of hype for their first SEC season after an impressive 2023. They broke through for their first Big 12 championship since 2009 and reached the College Football Playoff semifinal, where they lost a tight game to Washington, 37-31. Quarterback Quinn Ewers returns to lead a revamped roster, which added significant pieces via the transfer portal. Texas expects to contend for the SEC and return to the Playoff in ’24. Colorado State, meanwhile, has a higher profile than your average sub-.500 Mountain West team, after their heated overtime loss to Colorado last September. Like their rivals from Boulder, they struggled down the stretch, but return a number of their most significant contributors. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly , Texas returns 70% of its production from a year ago, while Colorado State isn’t far behind at 67%, with incoming transfer production factored in.

Saturday’s game will be just the second meeting all-time between the two programs. Texas won the first game, played in Austin on Sept. 13, 1975, 46-0.

Texas vs. Colorado State

Location : Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium
Kickoff : Saturday, Aug. 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET
TV : ESPN
Spread : Texas -32.5
Over/Under : 60.5
Announcers : Mike Monaco, Kirk Morrison and Dawn Davenport

Why Texas Will Win

Texas has a number of new faces ready to make their Longhorn debuts, but both sides of the ball return experienced cores that should give Steve Sarkisian’s team a major edge over their Mountain West opponent.

Ewers leads the way on offense, behind an offensive line that returns four of five starters. The Longhorns were ninth in total offense a year ago, with Ewers averaging an efficient 8.8 yards per attempt and the team rushing for more than five yards per carry. Jonathon Brooks, who ran for over 1,100 yards last year, is gone and CJ Baxter is out for the year due to injury, but Jaydon Blue impressed in a reserve role last year. The junior had 533 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns in 2023, and will be the Longhorns’ top running back to begin the year. Most teams would be reeling after losing four 500+ yard pass catchers (receivers Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Whittington, tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders), but Texas reloads with a slew of transfers, including Alabama imports wide receiver Isaiah Bond and tight end Amari Niblack. Colorado State struggled to defend both the run and the pass a year ago, while Texas was deadly in both facets.

Texas’ defense was very opportunistic a year ago, with 24 total takeaways including 16 interceptions in 14 games. That could spell trouble for CSU quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, a sophomore gunslinger who threw 16 picks of his own a year ago. CSU was 104th in FBS in turnover margin in 2023.

Related: Ranking All 96 Games for Week 1 of the 2024 College Football Season

Why Colorado State Will Win

The Rams put together an explosive passing attack last season, with Fowler-Nicolosi throwing for 3,460 yards and 22 touchdowns. As Norvell and his staff key in on flipping the team’s negative turnover margin, it has emphasized the rushing attack this offseason. Young running back Justin Marshall broke out at the end of last season, totaling 311 yards in the team’s final three games — including wins over San Diego State and Nevada. The Rams return three starters on the offensive line, including center Jacob Gardner and guard Drew Moss, both Athlon preseason All-Mountain West first-team selections . If they can keep Fowler-Nicolosi upright and open some lanes for Marshall and the team’s other running backs, this could be a very explosive Group of 5 offense.

“With as effective as we throw the ball, if we can be an explosive rushing team, then it makes it hard for defenses to pick who they want to defend,” Rams running backs coach Jeremy Moses told DNVR this week . “Do you want to defend the box and the tailback, or do you want to double Tory Horton? But you can’t do both.”

Giving Horton an opportunity to test the Texas secondary is essential, and it will require the Rams to be able to stay on schedule with an effective rushing attack.

Colorado State was effective at getting after quarterbacks a year ago, with 33 sacks on the season. Mohamed Kamara (13 sacks in 2023) is gone, putting more onus on players like linebacker Chase Wilson and defensive lineman James Mitchell. Texas’ offensive line should be strong, but the team was prone to giving up sacks with 28 allowed in 14 games. Ewers was sacked on 30.4% of plays in which he was pressured , a higher percentage than Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, who was the most sacked quarterback in the FBS.

Related: Ranking All 134 College Football Teams for 2024

Final Analysis

Colorado State should be improved in 2024, but Texas is a favorite to reach the College Football Playoff for a season. This week is a valuable opportunity for Ewers to get locked in with his new weapons like Bond, before next week’s date with defending national champion Michigan.

Prediction: Texas 37, Colorado State 17

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