Dodgers drop to slimmest NL West lead since April: Can Padres or Diamondbacks (or both!) close the gap?

The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres keep creeping up on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. They've crept so much, in fact, that it's possible this becomes a three-team race down to the wire, even though it looked like it would be a blowout for much of the season.

No, the Dodgers never been anywhere but first place or tied for first here in 2024. The Padres and Diamondbacks have both been what anyone would easily consider "out of it" multiple times. And yet here we are.

On April 25, the Dodgers won and moved their modest lead to 2 1/2 games. Heading into action on Aug. 15, that lead is 2 1/2 games again, the first time it has been as low since that late April date. In between, the Dodgers' lead swelled to as much as nine games (June 20). It was 7 1/2 by May 14. It was still 7 1/2 on July 25!

The Padres trailed by as many as 10 games (June 18) and they were down 8 1/2 on July 23.

The Diamondbacks trailed by as many as 11 1/2 games on July 2. They were still down nine games on July 23.

You'd be forgiven if you assumed the Dodgers had collapsed, but that's not the case. Obviously, they've had bad stretches, but they are 71-50, which is on pace to finish with 95 wins. They've gone 15-9 since the All-Star break, which is actually a better winning percentage than they have overall. They won five games in a row before a loss Wednesday night in Milwaukee.

The problem for the Dodgers isn't themselves, really, it's that the D-backs and Padres just aren't losing. It's like a world-class runner going at a pace that wins the gold medal most years and still seeing someone tearing down the stretch to run them down.

The Padres lost their first game after the All-Star break, but have gone an MLB-best 19-3 since, a run that has gained them 5 1/2 games on the Dodgers. It's really a testament to the Dodgers that San Diego hasn't picked up more games in the standings. I recently broke down how the Padres got things going .

The Diamondbacks lost to the lowly A's on June 28, falling to 39-43 on the season. They've won a tidy 30 of 40 since, gaining a whopping nine games on the Dodgers and even four on the scorching-hot Padres. Mike Axisa broke down how the Diamondbacks have been doing it .

Moving forward

Here's the strength of schedule:

• The Dodgers have 41 games left with an opponent's winning percentage of .495.
• The Padres have 40 games left with a .488 opponent winning percentage.
• The Diamondbacks have 40 games left and opponents have a combined .508 win percentage.

The D-backs have an interesting road trip. They go to Tampa Bay, Miami and Boston. It's tough to be on the east coast from the west for nine games, but this should otherwise be workable.

The Padres have three in Colorado before hosting the Twins for three games and the Mets for four. Again, it's certainly not easy, but it's manageable.

The Dodgers finish their series in Milwaukee on Thursday before playing three in St. Louis. They then return home for a long homestand against the Mariners , Rays and Orioles .

As for the head-to-head matchups left, this is what we've got:

• Dodgers at Diamondbacks, four games, Aug. 30-Sept. 2
• Padres at Dodgers, three games, Sept. 24-26
• Padres at Diamondbacks, three games, Sept. 27-29

Those last two series listed are the final two series of the season for the Padres.

If this division stays close, it's going to be an incredible race to the finish.

For those interested, the projection systems still love the Dodgers (what else is new?), but the other two contenders are creeping into the picture. SportsLine has the Dodgers finishing with 95 wins, the Padres with 91 and Diamondbacks with 90. Let's hope it's closer, because that last week would be so much fun.