One Stat Makes the 2024 Cincinnati Reds Season That Much More Frustrating

It's beating a dead horse at this point to say that the 2024 edition of the Cincinnati Reds has been a massive disappointment to this point. At 53-58, the division feels absolutely out of reach. The team is just behind with the Chicago Cubs at 6.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.

According to some basic analytics, the Reds should be about six full games better than they are. When taking into consideration runs scored and runs allowed, the Reds' Pythagorean win-loss record is 59-52.

What is the Pythagorean win-loss record? According to Baseball-Reference,

"Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James , it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by dividing runs scored to the 1.83rd power by the sum of runs scored to the 1.83rd power plus runs allowed to the 1.83rd power. The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate."

That looks like this:

The Reds have scored 485 runs and have allowed 457. They have the second-best run differential in the NL Central and yet, they're in a pillow fight with the Cubs for fourth.

The division-leading Milwaukee Brewers entered play at 62-48, just one game worse than their Pythagorean win-loss, 63-47. Instead of being nine games back, the Reds should be four games back.

Baseball-reference considered teams to be unlucky if they have a real-life record worse than their Pythagorean. The Reds are alone as the most unlucky team at six games under. In contrast, the Tampa Bay Rays, the team that just took two of three from the Reds a week ago, leads the league with a positive six.

Oddly enough, John Smoltz recently bemoaned, "In the analytical world, they don’t think the scoreboard matters." This is not to say the scoreboard doesn't matter. It's more of a "the Reds should be better, why aren't they?" kind of thing.

Easily the biggest contributor to this discrepancy is the Reds' atrocious record in one-run games. Through 110 games, the Reds are 9-20 in one-run games. At the same time, the Reds are 17-10 in blowouts (ie, games decided by more than five runs).

Those one-run games can be split between "too little too late" and a bullpen job. Six were too little too late where the starter was knocked around and the offense couldn't overcome. 14 one-run games were blown by the bullpen.

Last year, the Reds finished 82-80. Their Pythagorean win-loss record was actually 77-85, meaning they were five games lucky. Oddly enough, they were 34-29 in one-run games.

What can be done? Well, firing David Bell isn't going to fix it. The Reds have more issues right now than replacing the manager can fix. Do Reds fans even trust the ownership to hire the right guy as manager? Even if that's the plan in the coming months, it's not happening in-season. Especially when the Reds are a year removed from being incredibly lucky in terms of Pythagorean win-loss.

Do the Reds need to be better with RISP? The team is actually better than league-average in most situations with runners in scoring position. For example, the Reds are best with runners on second and third with one out. The team is batting .522/.553/1.000 in these situations.

All in all, the likelihood is the bullpen and lineup are both hot and cold. The Reds bats can light up for 10 hits in one game and then manage just one the next night. From July 9 through July 13, the Reds averaged 12 hits in each game. The same lineup was no-hit on Friday.

While one could argue youth is the issue, the Reds' core is similar to last year. An interesting win-loss stat to go with this, however, is surrounding Tyler Stephenson . When Stephenson is in the lineup as the starting catcher, the Reds are 40-30. When he's the starting DH, the Reds are 5-3. In all other games, the team is 8-25.

Regardless, for as frustrating as this season has been for Reds fans, it's exponentially more frustrating for the Reds players.