Localized flooding, coastal impacts for southeast US from budding tropical rainstorm

AccuWeather meteorologists are highlighting a risk for tropical development along the Southeast U.S. coastline. Regardless of development, this feature can produce locally heavy downpours and poor beach conditions.

AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close watch on the waters off the southern Atlantic coast, including the eastern Florida and Georgia coastline, highlighting a risk of tropical development into late week. Even if an official tropical depression or storm fails to develop, the system will bring tropical rainstorm conditions to some locations.

Chance of tropical development off the Southeast coast

An organizing cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas will continue to push toward the Georgia, northern Florida and Carolina coast as a tropical rainstorm. Downpours, gusty winds and perhaps locally severe thunderstorms will accompany the system as it approaches and then drifts inland.

For an official tropical depression to be declared by the National Hurricane Center, the system must have a closed circulation with winds of 38 miles per hour or less. A tropical storm is one step up from a tropical depression with sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Time is short for the system to fully develop as the center of circulation will likely be onshore in the southeastern United States around midday Friday.

If this feature develops into a tropical storm, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list is Beryl.

"Regardless of development, this feature will bring building seas, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the southeast U.S. coast," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Kienzle.

Rip currents will increase in strength and frequency from the east-central coast of Florida to North Carolina.

Portions of central and southern Florida are still experiencing moderate to severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Forecasters say that while the rain and thunderstorms expected into the weekend may result in localized areas of flash flooding, they may also help to alleviate the drought conditions residents are facing.

Into Saturday, a general 1-2 inches of rain will fall from northern Florida to southern Georgia and the Carolina coast with a pocket of 2-4 inches of rain near and just north of where the center rolls ashore. In this heavier rain zone, the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for rainfall is 7 inches.

"Within the heavier rain bands, localized flash flooding can occur," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said, "Most of the rain from this system will fall north of the tropical rainstorm that hit the state late last week, so aside from the localized flood risk, the storm may bring beneficial rain to some locations."

Wind gusts directly along the coastline can reach speeds upwards of 25-35 mph as this feature advances northwestward over the upcoming days. Boaters and mariners in the region should exercise caution while traveling and be prepared to alter plans.

"Landfalling tropical systems such as this, even if unnamed, can bring a few tornadoes and waterspouts," Sosnowski cautioned.

Temperatures across the Southeast will generally range from the 80s to mid-90s Fahrenheit through the end of the workweek. By this weekend, widespread highs in the 90s are projected to expand even more across the Gulf Coast states and South.

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Cities in Florida, such as Jacksonville and Orlando, will be among some locations where temperatures will creep into the 90s by late week or this weekend. However, this is not entirely out of the ordinary, as temperatures in the lower 90s are typical for mid-June for this area of the country.

By early next week, daytime highs in the 90s will continue to be the norm for locations across the Southeast. Any rain and tropical moisture that may push inland could help to provide brief relief from the heat for residents in the area.

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