STATE OF THE U 2024: Final analysis

Earlier this month, CaneSport set about evaluating the current State of The U. We pored through data from years past for signs of what lies ahead. There’s that old saying “ history repeats itself ,” right? Wouldn’t it be nice for Miami Hurricanes fans to say this program is “back”?

The reality of recent results smacks you right in the face, though. As you look through our recruiting State Of The U series, you see classes littered with misses from the pre- Mario Cristobal era. The 2020 class had 19 players depart (not for the NFL) with eligibility remaining. Thirteen more were gone the same way from the 2021 class and 13 more in the 2022 class, the latter which was recruited for the most part by Manny Diaz. This past year’s departures? Well, you can see that graphic below … a remarkable 34 transfers out of the program, tied for fifth-most in the country. It’s a sign of all the guys that just weren’t a fit here, misses in recruiting/development.

The jury is out on the 2023 and 2024 classes Cristobal put together, with both highly rated but simply young at this point. The development and talent could start to show in bulk this season or next from those two hauls.

And it better.

Because this program has gone from eight straight years of double-digit wins in the 1980s-90s, and a 2000-03 run with 11 or 12 wins including a national title, to a program with one 10-win season in 20 years. Do some quick math and Miami’s record in the last six years – under three different head coaches – is 40-34. There were two losing seasons in that span.

That was once unthinkable.

STATE OF THE U SERIES: Gary Ferman’s series introduction overview as Miami looks to turn around program … 2020 recruiting class analysis …. 2021 recruiting class analysis … 2022 recruiting class analysis … 2023 recruiting class analysis … Year 3 for a coach can be a flashpoint for success, so pressure is on Mario Cristobal and Miami … Where Miami Hurricanes stand in the college football landscape … QB analysis … RB analysis … WR analysis … TE analysis … OL analysis … DL analysis … LB analysis … DB analysis

Cristobal has been hard at work trying to fix it all as he enters year 3 off 5-7 and 7-6 records. Some thought that perhaps he’d enjoy immediate success. You can click on many of the above links in this year’s State Of The U series to see the headwinds he faced and why that was unrealistic.

You also can see how he tried to get things right in the near term through the portal while building for the future in recruiting. You can argue the merits of whether he should have gone all-in on recruiting or gotten more “free agents” in the portal vs. a lot of depth fillers. Regardless, we are now living in the present and there’s no question the immediate future is bright.

That bright future can and probably should start this year as you look inside our State Of The U position-by-position analysis series. Cristobal has turned the roster on its head since taking over. His fingerprints are all over it. Heck, only seven of the 85 players on the current team are guys he didn’t personally recruit: WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Jacolby George, WR Mike Redding, OL Zion Nelson, OL Jalen Rivers, LB Chase Smith and PK Andy Borregales. So 19 of our projected 22 position starters this season are guys Cristobal hand-picked, with the lone exceptions Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George and Jalen Rivers.

This is Cristobal’s team.

So we’ll start to find out this year if the “how you do anything is how you do everything” culture has really taken root.

Make no mistake about it, this year is very much a turning point. The schedule doesn’t include any major non-conference opponents that had winning records a year ago. The ACC portion doesn’t include Clemson , NC State or North Carolina. The only games in which Miami might be an underdog appear to be against Florida State (currently set at even odds) and perhaps at Louisville (UM a one-point underdog).

The offense is poised to become the first since 2002 to average 35 or more points a game, if you believe the hype of adding star QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez to an attack that has back WRs Restrepo and George, a refreshed tight ends room with Elijah Arroyo healthy and Elija Lofton a freshman phenom, plus four linemen with full seasons of starting experience.

The defense might be a question mark, but the transfer portal has loaded up the front line, which also returns freshman All-American Rueben Bain and is looking to get a return to production of Akheem Mesidor off injury. Both starting linebackers are back (Francisco Mauigoa, Wesley Bissainthe), and Louisville starter Jaylin Alderman is on board looking to push Bissainthe. The secondary is the biggest area of concern but does have three guys that have started and enjoyed some level of success – Washington nickel/S transfer Mishael Powell, CB Daryl Porter, Jr. and Damari Brown (started four games as a true freshman last year).

The overall team depth might not be there yet. The starting unit on defense might not be championship level. But you can plainly see this roster is a heck of a lot better than last year’s. Against an easy schedule, 10 wins is and should be the bar in 2024.

Playoffs isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Let’s not even think about another seven-win season, right? It’s a must-win year based on the work put in by Cristobal and his staff building this roster, and the mess that would come with a third straight year of not meeting expectations after the University invested so much in pulling Cristobal away from Oregon.

We will find out a heck of a lot about this team in the opener at Florida, a program that has talent but that’s gone 17-21 the last three years. Miami HAS to win that one or all bets are off. You can point to an early season game vs. USF or having to play at Cal as perhaps trap games, but Miami is better than those teams and should also beat overmatched Ball State and a pretty good Virginia Tech squad at home, which would bring UM to its toughest two games on paper – back-to-back matchups at Louisville Oct. 19 and then FSU at home Oct. 26. The results of those could mean the difference between this season being an exclamation point or a letdown.

The Canes finish with Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse, none of which really scare you, although the Yellow Jackets could be sneaky good.

The signs are flashing red for opponents that face Miami. They should be scared of this Hurricanes team that Cristobal’s been building, and its potential for major success in 2024.

But until Miami gets out and shows out, it’s all just hype and bluster.

Putting on the orange and green glasses hasn’t worked out so well for fans the last 20 years.

This year?

Well, it just might be different.

The post STATE OF THE U 2024: Final analysis appeared first on On3 .