Kansas State season preview: Oklahoma State

Our opponent series for the 2024 Kansas State season continues with game No. 2 versus Tulane. (All stats via bcftoys.com, collegefootballdata.com, and stats.ncaa.org)

LAST FIVE MEETINGS: Kansas State has only defeated Oklahoma State once in the last five meetings, but it was a 48-0 drilling in Manhattan during the Big 12 championship season in 2022. The Cowboys lead the all-time series 43-27, but K-State is 15-11 in the last 26. That included 10 wins in 11 seasons between 1990 and 2006. Oklahoma State has won 11 of the last 17 and four of the last five. They defeated the Wildcats 29-21 in Stillwater last season, 31-20 in Stillwater in 2021, 20-18 in Manhattan in 2020 and again in Stillwater in 2019 by a score of 26-13.
2023 RECORD: 10-4 overall, 7-2 in the Big 12. They fell to Texas in the Big 12 title game in Arlington. Oklahoma State won the Texas Bowl over Texas A&M.

Oklahoma State finished with its eighth double-digit win season in the past 14 years and a second Big 12 title game appearance in the last three.

The Cowboys were 2-2 with a loss to South Alabama at the end of September before rejuvenating their season with a pair of wins over Sunflower State opponents, including a disappointing Friday night performance from Kansas State in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State later beat Oklahoma in the final Bedlam Rivalry for a while before losing by 42 points at UCF. They still managed to make it to Arlington through tiebreaker scenarios where Texas blew them out by four touchdowns before they traveled to Houston and knocked off Texas A&M.

COACH: Mike Gundy enters his 20th season leading Oklahoma State and has a 166-79 overall record. The Cowboys have made bowl games in each the last 18 seasons and finished ranked as a top 25 team 11 times in the last 16.

And clearly he has had some good fortune versus K-State.

2023 REVIEW: The Cowboys finished No. 16 in both polls to finish the season, though the metrics weren’t as kind. Oklahoma State was only No. 41 in the F+ ratings, with the No. 33 offense and No. 49 defense.

The offense was No. 59 in points per drive and No. 47 in available yards gained. The rushing success rate was an impressive No. 14, but only passing success rate and havoc allowed were other advanced stats that landed in the top 45 nationally.

Defensively they were No. 37 in rush success rate allowed and No. 44 in overall success rate, but no other defensive stat ranked inside the top 60. Oklahoma State was top 20 in kickoff returns and top 30 in kickoff coverage with an overall special teams rank of No. 53 in the FEI.

2024 PROJECTION: Oklahoma State is picked third in the Big 12 preseason and has an average ranking of No. 22 in the preseason metrics. The offense is projected at No. 13 and the defense at No. 41. The Cowboys are No. 3 nationally in returning production as well, No. 2 on offense and No. 10 on defense.

The Cowboys also feature one of the most experienced offensive lines in college football, returning all seven players that earned starts last year, six of them super seniors and five starting 10 or more games for Gundy and company.

Quarterback Alan Bowman is in his seventh season and teams up with one of the best running backs in college football in Ollie Gordon and a pair of experienced wide receivers. The defense returns eight players with eight or more starts and six that started 13 or more games.

KEY OFFENSIVE PLAYERS

RB Ollie Gordon: He is one of the best backs in football after gaining over 2,000 yards from scrimmage last season. Gordon rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns at over six yards per carry with another 330 yards receiving. The preseason All-American was last year’s Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and an All-Big 12 first team selection.
WR Brennan Presley: The Oklahoma State wideout (who camped at Kansas State as a recruit) was a second team All-Big 12 selection last year and made this year’s preseason All-Big 12 team. With more than 2,500 yards receiving in his career, Presley caught balls for 991 yards and six touchdowns last season.
QB Alan Bowman: In what has been an adventurous college career, he enters his seventh season after stops at Texas Tech, Michigan and now Oklahoma State. Last year he completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,460 yards and 15 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. He has nearly 8,800 yards threw the air and 49 touchdowns in his career.
WR Rashad Owens: Owens caught 63 passes for 895 yards and five touchdowns last season, averaging more than 14 yards per catch.

KEY DEFENSIVE PLAYERS

LB Nick Martin: A preseason All-Big 12 pick and a first team selection last year, Martin led Oklahoma State with 140 tackles, 16 tackles for loss and six sacks. He also picked off a pair of passes and led the team with 83 solo tackles.
LB Collin Oliver: Another preseason all-conference pick and second team selection last year, Oliver tallied 73 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss and six sacks along with five passes defended and four forced fumbles. K-State has their hands full with the Oklahoma State linebackers.
S Kendal Daniels: Daniels has 176 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and five interceptions the last two seasons for the Cowboys.
S Trey Rucker: Rucker was the third Cowboy with 100 or more tackles last season, including 62 solos and four tackles for loss and an interception.

KANSAS STATE WINS IF…

A strong home crowd helps against one of the most experienced teams in the Big 12.

The K-State offense is able to exploit a defense that was mediocre against the run last year and prone to give up explosive plays. The Wildcats also contain one of the best running backs in the league while managing to force mistakes against a quarterback that is prone to make them.

K-STATE LOSES IF…

Oklahoma State’s extensive experience leads to offensive production, and the playmakers on defense take care of a young Kansas State offense in a tough road environment.

Fan’s Prediction: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 28

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