Pete Thamel, Rece Davis predict Penn State to make the College Football Playoff

In the first year of the expanded playof f, both Rece Davis and Pete Thamel think the Nittany Lions finally make it in .

During the ‘College GameDay Podcast’ on Wednesday, Davis and Thamel picked Penn State to make it as an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff .

“You and I both have them in the playoff ,” Davis began.

“Again, I have Penn State there. I like Penn State like everybody else,” said Thamel. “You have to make a few logic leaps to really push them in there and be convicted about it.”

Much of this case of Penn State finally making it in is an improved offense with either new pieces or experienced ones. That starts with an overall different approach with a new offensive coordinator . It then comes down to QB Drew Allar and what his development looks like as far as production and getting the ball down the field vertically.

“ They have to be better on offense . They have to throw the ball down the field,” said Davis. “I’m going to look at this stat so I make sure that I get it right with Allar last year in the big games. Against Michigan – 70 yards passing. 191 against Ohio State and it didn’t feel like 191 from watching on the sideline. Can he produce in big games? Will he throw it downfield? Will Penn State make big plays?”

“You mentioned Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas now going over in his first year as the offensive coordinator… Offensively , they’ve got Nicholas Singleton , they’ve got Kaytron Allen . It’s sort of a theme with some of these teams – they’re looking for playmakers on the outside,” Davis continued. “They also have to get Allar to be less risk-aversive. He threw 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions. That’s great but not if you’re so risk-aversive that you’re also not giving yourself enough chances to make big plays. I think the new offensive system will alleviate most of that.”

Thamel agreed with Davis on that aspect in Allar’s game. He too wants the junior to feel comfortable deciding on more high-risk throws within reason in this new offense.

“I think part of a player’s maturation in college is understanding risk management. That’s an intuitive thing. That’s a hard thing. It’s hard to coach. It’s a feel thing,” said Thamel. “Andy Kotelnicki is a really creative offensive coach.”

However, Penn State also has to maintain their standard defensively after changing coordinators for that unit as well. They have had a Top-10 defense in each of the past three seasons and in five of the last seven. That certainly has to continue as well to pair with that better offense.

“They also have a new defensive coordinator in Tom Allen , former Indiana head coach who takes over for Manny Diaz who’s now the head coach at Duke ,” noted Davis. “You kind of know what you’re going to get on defense, I think. You feel like they’re still going to be good. They’ve been elite under Manny the last couple of years on defense.”

“The other thing is, Manny Diaz? Tom Allen is a really good defensive coach. He has proven that over the years. Diaz the last two years? They were +27 in turnovers. Rush defense? Number one in the country. Yards per carry against, rush defense? Number one in the country. Total defense? Number two. Scoring defense? Number three. Sacks? Number one,” Davis stated. “The defense still has a lot to live up to but the offense needs to give them a little more latitude.”

Everyone undoubtedly knows how often the Nittany Lions have been knocking on the playoff’s door. Now, with four going to a dozen, Davis and Thamel think, assuming they have the sides of the ball to do it, it will finally open for them in 2024.

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